D2 NCAA XC

The Midwest region men likely won't have four bids. Right now there is no direct win data or second degree wins data between the teams currently ranked 4th and down in the Midwest and Central or 6th and down in the West and 8th and down in the South-Central.

Essentially you have four at-large teams in the SC (assuming West Texas beats any of the top 7 ranked teams in the region) and two at-large teams in the West who are sitting ahead of the other at-large team candidates due to direct or second degree wins. Basically six at-large bids are pretty solid, but the other four could be any of about 12 remaining teams between those four regions. That's how the math stacks up. Order of finish at regionals will be the key.

anyone have data for the women's side? How many bids will each region get?

This website will show the projections based off current regional rankings. Right now Central gets 1, West 2, Midwest 2, and South Central 5

UCCS has been ranked top 15 all year, they will get in as well if they are 6th or above at regionals. SC will get at least 5 bids.

West-WWU for men perhaps for women as well along with Chico State

As of today:

Men - 95% in are listed below based on actual results.

*Leaves 4 at-large bids TBA between the 6th in the West, 8th in the South-Central, 4th in the Midwest and 4th in the Central. None of those will be sorted out until the regionals order of finish is final.

Atlantic - 3 auto

East - 3 auto

South - 3 auto

Southeast - 3 auto

West - 3 auto and 2 at-large

South- Central 3 auto and 4 at-large

Central - 3 auto

Midwest - 3 auto

For men in the SC: Mines, Adams St., CCU, Western Co, UCCS, West Texas, and Fort Lewis are all locks no matter the order of the finish. So 3 auto and 4 bids, but MSU-Denver and DBU are still alive as the 8 and 9 in the region. However for those two they are in the cluster of 12 schools that are equals for the last 4 bids, so it will come down to regional finish order in the other regions before either of schools can be considered.

That calculator is super helpful and explains the logic in selecting the field. You can see the selection details and common competitor chains. If that algorithm is correct....

The South Central is definitely getting 4 bids due to Lewis and UCCS doing well at Parkside and Lewis. The teams in front of them will rack up a bunch of secondary wins through them if they don't already have direct wins.

In the Central Region, Washburn looks to have been the only team that raced outside of the region and beat #8 South Central (MSU Denver) and MSU Denver did not race anyone outside of the Dallas Baptist meet. MSU Denver only has a bunch of direct losses to South Central teams and no quality wins vs. teams outside of the region. Same can be said for the rest of the Central Region (minus Pitt State, who will get an auto). That is what is hurting the region from what I can see and according to College XC Page and looking at schedules/meet results.

For the Midwest argument

#4 Midwest(Walsh) has a direct win over #6 West (Biola) #4 South (Flagler)at Lewis. Indirect win over #4 South (Embry Riddle) via Tiffin
#5 Midwest (Ashland) has a second degree win over Biola, Flagler and Embry Riddle by defeating Tiffin at conference. It doesn't look like they have any quality direct wins over any teams that would be in the national qualifying conversation outside of the region.
#6 Midwest (Tiffin) has direct wins over Biola, Flagler, and Embry Riddle. They have no direct losses that will hurt them finishing #6 in the Midwest. Their only key losses are to Ft. Lewis, Alaska, and Northwest at Lewis and teams that are projected to get an auto qualifier.
#7 Midwest (Michigan Tech) has direct wins over Biola and Flagler at Lewis. They won at Griak but didn't look to beat anyone in the national qualifying conversation this year.

Biola doing poorly at Lewis will hold the West Region back if they do well at regionals.

From what it looks like there are 12-13 teams vying for 10 spots. The only way it changes if any team lower than #7 South Central #7 Midwest and #5 West jumps into one of those spots or higher. It would open the door for Flagler and Embry Riddle.

Just my opinion but maybe D2 XC Stats is seeing something I am not.

Ashland also lost to Cedarville early in the at-large window so Cedarville's losses will go against them too. That could impact the Midwest when it comes to the selection rounds verses other schools they are being compared to.

What this calculator does not account for is teams that for example, had two of their top 5 runners out at Lucian Rosa and therefore the team finished 8 or 9 places lower than they would have otherwise. So hopefully there will be some surprises.

Cedarville's only key losses came at Parkside (without their #1). Wayne State and Illinois Springfield are in region then Palm Beach Atlantic and Embry Riddle which would be secondary losses. These would be X'ed out by secondary wins via beating Tiffin at their conference meet. They also pick up all of Tiffin's direct wins as secondary wins (Biola & Flagler). The only team ahead Cedarville at Parkside that will not be in contention to get an auto is UCCS, which will get in by defeating Ft. Lewis at regionals thus having enough direct and secondary wins to get selected.

Ashland also defeated Cedarville at conference to get secondary wins to counter their secondary losses from losing to them at All Ohio.

According to the criteria

"If there are both wins and losses in the common competitor chain, for either first
or second degree opponents in common, this will not be counted for or against a
team."

Here is the breakdown when selecting Ashland according the website.

Ashland (Midwest) 0 losses (5 wins)
East Central (Central) 0 losses (0 wins) [No direct or common competitor chains]
MSU Denver (South Central) 0 losses (0 wins) [No direct or common competitor chains]
Flagler (Southeast) 1 losses (4 wins)
Embry-Riddle (South) 2 losses (3 wins)
Biola (West) 3 losses (2 wins)
East Stroudsburg (Atlantic) 4 losses (1 wins)
St. Michael's (East) 5 losses (0 wins)

Correct it does not but the criteria states

"A-Team Definition – An “A-Team” is defined as having at least five of the members of the seven that represent each institution at their NCAA Regional Cross Country Championships."

So if your 6th and 7th runners were higher up on your team that day then 2 of your top 5 are back in the lineup for regionals. Then that counts as an A squad (at Parkside) and those losses (or wins) will count against (or for) you.

So it seems that the 1.5 weight on the direct wins has made it worth racing teams?

Essentially. When they introduced this qualifying format, it was to promote crossover regional competition. When the majority of your region doesn't race outside of itself, it doesn't just hurt that program. It hurts the entire region. Especially for the 4th and down ranked regionally ranked teams.

IMO the only teams that don't need to travel are the ones that know they will get auto qualifiers.