Joshua Cheptegei's third marathon is Sunday in Amsterdam. Can he finally run a good one? Predictions?

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7 months ago 10/17/2025 11:30pm EDT

A year ago, if we told you that Joshua Cheptegei - the world record holder in the 5000 and 10,000 and two-time Olympic champion on the track would only have a 2:05:59 marathon pb - would only have a 2:05:59 marathon pb (London 2025) after running 2:08:59 in his debut (2024 Valencia) we doubt you'd believe us.

But that's the reality. The first two have gone so poorly, he's running Amsterdam this weekend where he'll take on a field that includes Gabriel Geay (2:03:00 pb) and defending champ Tsegaye Getachew (2:04:49 pb).

Do you think he will turn around his marathon career this weekend? Predicitons?

Leading entries

Men
Gabriel Geay (TAN) 2:03:00
Getaneh Molla (ETH) 2:03:34
Andualem Shiferaw (ETH) 2:04:44
Tsegaye Getachew (ETH) 2:04:49
Bute Gemechu (ETH) 2:04:51
Bazezew Asmare (ETH) 2:04:57
Geoffrey Toroitich (KEN) 2:05:46
Joshua Cheptegei (UGA) 2:05:59
Muktar Edris (ETH) 2:05:59
Kenya Sonota (JPN) 2:05:59
Enock Kinyamal (KEN) 2:06:28
Lameck Too (KEN) 2:06:29
Merhawi Kesete (ERI) 2:06:36
Masresha Bere (ETH) 2:06:44
Afewerk Mesfin (ETH) 2:07:08
Boki Diriba (ETH) 2:07:13
Khalid Choukoud (NED) 2:07:37
Godadaw Belachew (ISR) 2:07:45
Mesfin Niguse (ETH) 2:07:58
Phil Sesemann (GBR) 2:08:04
Haftom Welday (GER) 2:08:24
Shadrack Kimining (KEN) 2:08:29
Benson Tunyo (KEN) 2:08:36
Takashi Ichida (JPN) 2:08:57
Aron Kifle (ERI) 2:09:39
Tadesse Getahon (ISR) debut
Daniel Tola (ETH) debut

Women
Lonah Salpeter (ISR) 2:17:45
Tiruye Mesfin (ETH) 2:18:35
Bosena Mulate (ETH) 2:19:00
Zeineba Yimer (ETH) 2:19:07
Yebrugual Melese (ETH) 2:19:36
Desi Jisa (BRN) 2:20:07
Waganesh Mekasha (ETH) 2:20:44
Bertukan Welde (ETH) 2:20:55
Gadise Mulu (ETH) 2:20:59
Zinah Senbeta (ETH) 2:21:05
Aynalem Desta (ETH) 2:22:11
Vivian Melly (KEN) 2:22:25
Rose Chelimo (BRN) 2:23:12
Mekides Shimeles (ETH) debut

worldathletics.org

Two-time winner Getachew takes on Cheptegei in Amsterdam | PREVIEWS | World Athletics

Tsegaye Getachew will defend his title at the TCS Amsterdam Marathon

Open link

7 months ago 10/17/2025 11:39pm EDT

re: rojo

I kinda think he's off the sauce which is why he hasn't been able to run a decent marathon. If he's still off the sauce, I think it'll be more average stuff from him

7 months ago 10/17/2025 11:45pm EDT

re: Whiny Kelati

Possibly 2:03:00 -2:05:00

7 months ago 10/17/2025 11:46pm EDT

re: rojo

I’m not sure he will ever be one of the greats at the Marathon. Personally, I would have stayed on the track long enough to be dethroned. He would have won this year, tying Bekele with 4 consecutive world titles. Toss in a silver in 2017 and a silver and Gold at the OG for good measure. If he could have somehow won in 2027, he becomes the undisputed GOAT of the 10 with the world record. Add in a an OG gold in the 5 and a world XC title too for icing on the cake. He’s a clear number 2 10000 guy ever.

With that said, I think a 2:03 would show real progress. Anyone know if he had upped his mileage to the more standard that most big time marathons guys put in? Should be a great race!

7 months ago 10/17/2025 11:53pm EDT

re: rojo

Cheptegei is so mid compared to Bekele

7 months ago 10/17/2025 11:53pm EDT

re: rojo

When you have run two marathons, and you have averaged 2:07:29, you have not had a poor start to your marathon career. But yes JC likely can run under 2:05 sooner rather than later.

7 months ago 10/17/2025 11:57pm EDT

re: SteeringWheel

SteeringWheel wrote:
Cheptegei is so mid compared to Bekele

Cheptegei broke his 5000/10000m WRs.

7 months ago 10/17/2025 11:58pm EDT

re: snowflakes

snowflakes wrote:
SteeringWheel wrote:
Cheptegei is so mid compared to Bekele
Cheptegei broke his 5000/10000m WRs.

Smashed them really

7 months ago 10/17/2025 11:58pm EDT

re: rojo

Kiplimo said he was running 155 miles/week for Chicago. Kiplimo and Cheptegei were rumored to only run 80-90 miles/week for their track racing. If Cheptegei bumped his mileage like Kiplimo, I think this race may be the "big one" for him.

Also, let's remember that it's normal for track stars to need a few marathons under their belt before becoming world beaters.

I predict 2:04:15, but I can see him going 2:03 for sure.

7 months ago 10/18/2025 12:09am EDT

re: triplethreshold

triplethreshold wrote:
snowflakes wrote:
Cheptegei broke his 5000/10000m WRs.
Smashed them really

with pacing light, Bekele could've run much faster than 12:37/26:17 though, never mind superspikes.

Bekele also pulled off the double in both Oly and World.

7 months ago 10/18/2025 12:12am EDT

re: Curious_Cat

Curious_Cat wrote:
triplethreshold wrote:
Smashed them really
with pacing light, Bekele could've run much faster than 12:37/26:17 though, never mind superspikes.
Bekele also pulled off the double in both Oly and World.

At the end nobody will care about that. Kipchoge is better than both anyways.

7 months ago 10/18/2025 12:24am EDT

re: snowflakes

snowflakes wrote:
Curious_Cat wrote:
with pacing light, Bekele could've run much faster than 12:37/26:17 though, never mind superspikes.
Bekele also pulled off the double in both Oly and World.
At the end nobody will care about that. Kipchoge is better than both anyways.

Really? Kipchoge:

Has a losing head to head record against Bekele

Has 3 gold medals compared to Bekele’s 16 (2 world, 2 oly, 11 world XC back when it was competitive too)

Has slower PR’s at every single distance except the marathon (where both have 2:01 PR’s and Bekele ran his 2:01:41 after having one good season of healthy running)

Please tell me one metric other than marathon where Kipchoge is a better runner

7 months ago 10/18/2025 12:53am EDT

re: 2020420

2020420 wrote:
snowflakes wrote:
At the end nobody will care about that. Kipchoge is better than both anyways.
Really? Kipchoge:
Has a losing head to head record against Bekele
Has 3 gold medals compared to Bekele’s 16 (2 world, 2 oly, 11 world XC back when it was competitive too)
Has slower PR’s at every single distance except the marathon (where both have 2:01 PR’s and Bekele ran his 2:01:41 after having one good season of healthy running)
Please tell me one metric other than marathon where Kipchoge is a better runner

Here is the most important metric: My mom who knows nothing about athletics knows who Kipchoge is. Bekele? Who is that?

7 months ago 10/18/2025 3:34am EDT

re: rojo

Without seeing his training, it's hard to know. He's more talented than Mantz so you'd think a 2:03-04 is in him, but maybe he physiologically tops out at the 10k and HM distances. Mo Farah might be the nearest comparison but in his case, he never truly committed to the marathon, his head was never there and his training was not at the same level as the very top guys. I'd like to think Cheptegei will run a good marathon but he'll never match his compatriot, Kiplimo

7 months ago 10/18/2025 4:21am EDT

re: Ghost1

Ghost1 wrote:
Possibly 2:03:00 -2:05:00

You have lots of credible opinions. I agree. Edris has scratched, by the way.

7 months ago 10/18/2025 4:22am EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
A year ago, if we told you that Joshua Cheptegei - the world record holder in the 5000 and 10,000 and two-time Olympic champion on the track would only have a 2:05:59 marathon pb - would only have a 2:05:59 marathon pb (London 2025) after running 2:08:59 in his debut (2024 Valencia) we doubt you'd believe us.
But that's the reality. The first two have gone so poorly, he's running Amsterdam this weekend where he'll take on a field that includes Gabriel Geay (2:03:00 pb) and defending champ Tsegaye Getachew (2:04:49 pb).
Do you think he will turn around his marathon career this weekend? Predicitons?
Leading entries

Men
Gabriel Geay (TAN) 2:03:00
Getaneh Molla (ETH) 2:03:34
Andualem Shiferaw (ETH) 2:04:44
Tsegaye Getachew (ETH) 2:04:49
Bute Gemechu (ETH) 2:04:51
Bazezew Asmare (ETH) 2:04:57
Geoffrey Toroitich (KEN) 2:05:46
Joshua Cheptegei (UGA) 2:05:59
Muktar Edris (ETH) 2:05:59
Kenya Sonota (JPN) 2:05:59
Enock Kinyamal (KEN) 2:06:28
Lameck Too (KEN) 2:06:29
Merhawi Kesete (ERI) 2:06:36
Masresha Bere (ETH) 2:06:44
Afewerk Mesfin (ETH) 2:07:08
Boki Diriba (ETH) 2:07:13
Khalid Choukoud (NED) 2:07:37
Godadaw Belachew (ISR) 2:07:45
Mesfin Niguse (ETH) 2:07:58
Phil Sesemann (GBR) 2:08:04
Haftom Welday (GER) 2:08:24
Shadrack Kimining (KEN) 2:08:29
Benson Tunyo (KEN) 2:08:36
Takashi Ichida (JPN) 2:08:57
Aron Kifle (ERI) 2:09:39
Tadesse Getahon (ISR) debut
Daniel Tola (ETH) debut
Women
Lonah Salpeter (ISR) 2:17:45
Tiruye Mesfin (ETH) 2:18:35
Bosena Mulate (ETH) 2:19:00
Zeineba Yimer (ETH) 2:19:07
Yebrugual Melese (ETH) 2:19:36
Desi Jisa (BRN) 2:20:07
Waganesh Mekasha (ETH) 2:20:44
Bertukan Welde (ETH) 2:20:55
Gadise Mulu (ETH) 2:20:59
Zinah Senbeta (ETH) 2:21:05
Aynalem Desta (ETH) 2:22:11
Vivian Melly (KEN) 2:22:25
Rose Chelimo (BRN) 2:23:12
Mekides Shimeles (ETH) debut
Link:worldathletics.org/competitions/world-...

From the top 16 men, the sole non East African is called Kenya...

7 months ago 10/18/2025 6:42am EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
A year ago, if we told you that Joshua Cheptegei - the world record holder in the 5000 and 10,000 and two-time Olympic champion on the track would only have a 2:05:59 marathon pb - would only have a 2:05:59 marathon pb (London 2025) after running 2:08:59 in his debut (2024 Valencia) we doubt you'd believe us.
But that's the reality. The first two have gone so poorly, he's running Amsterdam this weekend where he'll take on a field that includes Gabriel Geay (2:03:00 pb) and defending champ Tsegaye Getachew (2:04:49 pb).
Do you think he will turn around his marathon career this weekend? Predicitons?
Leading entries

Men
Gabriel Geay (TAN) 2:03:00
Getaneh Molla (ETH) 2:03:34
Andualem Shiferaw (ETH) 2:04:44
Tsegaye Getachew (ETH) 2:04:49
Bute Gemechu (ETH) 2:04:51
Bazezew Asmare (ETH) 2:04:57
Geoffrey Toroitich (KEN) 2:05:46
Joshua Cheptegei (UGA) 2:05:59
Muktar Edris (ETH) 2:05:59
Kenya Sonota (JPN) 2:05:59
Enock Kinyamal (KEN) 2:06:28
Lameck Too (KEN) 2:06:29
Merhawi Kesete (ERI) 2:06:36
Masresha Bere (ETH) 2:06:44
Afewerk Mesfin (ETH) 2:07:08
Boki Diriba (ETH) 2:07:13
Khalid Choukoud (NED) 2:07:37
Godadaw Belachew (ISR) 2:07:45
Mesfin Niguse (ETH) 2:07:58
Phil Sesemann (GBR) 2:08:04
Haftom Welday (GER) 2:08:24
Shadrack Kimining (KEN) 2:08:29
Benson Tunyo (KEN) 2:08:36
Takashi Ichida (JPN) 2:08:57
Aron Kifle (ERI) 2:09:39
Tadesse Getahon (ISR) debut
Daniel Tola (ETH) debut
Women
Lonah Salpeter (ISR) 2:17:45
Tiruye Mesfin (ETH) 2:18:35
Bosena Mulate (ETH) 2:19:00
Zeineba Yimer (ETH) 2:19:07
Yebrugual Melese (ETH) 2:19:36
Desi Jisa (BRN) 2:20:07
Waganesh Mekasha (ETH) 2:20:44
Bertukan Welde (ETH) 2:20:55
Gadise Mulu (ETH) 2:20:59
Zinah Senbeta (ETH) 2:21:05
Aynalem Desta (ETH) 2:22:11
Vivian Melly (KEN) 2:22:25
Rose Chelimo (BRN) 2:23:12
Mekides Shimeles (ETH) debut
Link:worldathletics.org/competitions/world-...

Joshua’s pb was in tokyo, not london

7 months ago 10/18/2025 6:48am EDT

re: rojo

Conor Mantz is a better marathoner than JC. Crazy

Promoting Excellence in Running, Integrity of Character, Clarity of Mind, Sublime Humor.

7 months ago 10/18/2025 7:33am EDT

re: briguy

If he can’t run faster than Connor Mantz then he may not be suited for the ‘Thon or his training or coaching is problematic.

7 months ago 10/18/2025 7:42am EDT

re: rojo

Anyone knows the pacing?

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Joshua Cheptegei's third marathon is Sunday in Amsterdam. Can he finally run a good one? Predictions?

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