What could Pogacar run in a 10k?

Even with absolutely horrendous running economy and running from, there is no way an aerobic monster like Pogi shouldn't be able to get very close to 30 mins

You would lose this bet. The only cyclists who quicky excel in running are the ones that ran track/xc as kids, or dabbled a bit in triathlon.

Aerobic motor is there, but the legwork takes some time. 40 min, 36 min better goals until he has some mileage built up.

I think Nils van der Poehl ran 36 minutes, but he did quite a bit of long, slow running in the summer.

I guess the question is whether he is just getting off of his bike one day and running a 10K or is he training for three or four months. I'd say given a year with solely running training there is better than a 50% chance that he would be under 30 minutes.

But just waking up and running a 10K with no training?.... who even knows.

I guess it comes down to, like, how good he is at running with zero or minimal running training? Some people are blessed and just have a good, efficient stride without really trying. Others, not so much.

I'd say, if we're doing the "zero running training" approach, he can go as low as 32 if he has a very nice natural stride. I wouldn't be in disbelief if he ran like 40 or something very slow. If he trained for a few months, he's going much, much faster.

My only point of reference without looking it up is that Lance Armstrong ran like 2:45 in a marathon. I believe he trained semi-seriously for it, but it was after cycling retirement. He likely would have gone much faster if he really dedicated to it in his prime.

Sub 40 would be very easy for him.

He called himself a very slow 10k runner considering his aerobic ability.

Back to Pogacar.

Top cross country skiers run sub 32. Some might dip under 30 minutes.

I don't know how much running the top cyclists do but I would guess they do run once a week or so. That should be enough for him to run closer to 30 minutes than 40.

I wonder how little running he would need to break 30 minutes.

Of course top Nordic Skiing athletes run quite a bit (especially in the summer) v pro cyclists who run far less - cyclists run mainly to prevent osteoporosis. Modern Classic-style Nordic skiing at the high levels has a strong running component as skiers stride up inclines (see the “Klaebo Klomp”).

Norwegian national team skier Diedrich Toenseth represented Norway at the European Cross Country Championships, and is no doubt a 28-minute 10km runner.

2019 European Cross Country Championships - Wikipedia

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2019 European Cross Country Championships

The 2019 European Cross Country Championships is the 26th edition of the European Cross Country Championships. It was held 8 December 2019, hosted by Lisbon, Portugal. It was the third occasion that Portugal has hosted the ch...

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Impressive result in that race, in 2019, for Toenseth, 31:25, not far behind French monster Yann Schrub, 31:12, and beating people like Patrick Dever, etc. winner was a Swede in 29:59, of African origin, Fsiha, who later failed doping tests. Wanders was 4th.

My boss was a top amateur rider in France who was convinced by his uncle Regis Ovion former World champion to go and study .After a PHD, and few years of work in his thirties he went to jog for an hour at 6'25" pace after 10 years of not exercising.

So Pogaçar should be able to run 28' after some training

Former pro cyclist and grand tour podium finisher Tom Domoulin has run 1:08 for a half and 32 for a 10K. Pogacar could run faster.

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I mean if you said in two days rest up run a 10K, I imagine easily sub 38 (like 6 minutes per mile).

If he had any kind of training block - like 4-6 weeks - he probably could get to a 32 or faster. (5 minutes per mile pace) He is a generational biking / aerobic talent.

A year of training, he could be running with the elites sub 28 or faster.

Pogačar gave an interview to Peter Attia on his podcast. He said in the offseason he actually does a decent amount of running. No idea how that applies to other cyclists for comparison purposes. And he didn’t get into a lot of specifics other than he does it to stay in shape.

It depends as not all cyclists have decent running biomechanics and form.

I remember competing in a bike/run duathlon against a Cat 1 State Champion bike racer, He was a shorter guy that looked incredibly lean and fit-an aerobic monster.

I missed the break at the start of the bike, and he was about two minutes ahead of me at the bike to run transition. I thought he was gone for good.

But about 3 miles into the run I was shocked to cruise right past him. His feet seemed to be flopping all over the place, and I thought he was running like a duck.

I guess he needed the mechanical constraints of a bike to efficiently harness all his power,

Since Pogecar reportedly does some off season running, and a 40 minute 10k is not all that fast, I believe he could do it.

It's entertaining how little runners know about cycling and vice versa. There are tons of really good cyclists who could never run a 2:59 marathon if their life depended on it.

Both sports obviously have aerobic capacity in common. But success in running also depends on economy. While unlikely, a person with top-tier aerobic ability could be in the bottom 1% in running economy and be depressingly slow.

Keep in mind Lance the doper only achieved a 2:46 marathon. Top of the world in one sport. A weekend warrior in the other.

Drugs. He could run drugs.

IDK but he def can’t beat Mike Woods

The one I always go to is Michael (Rusty) Woods who is an actual competitive cyclist (won a TdF stage) and former sub 4 miler (3:57 indoors and outdoors). His time is equivalent to a 28:22 (and this was pre-super shoes). Pogi would obviously smoke Woods in any cycling event. This doesn't guarantee that all cyclists better than Woods are sub 4 milers, but I would expect that it is actually possible for Pogi to run around 30 min.

Further examples:

Bart Lemmen has run a 33min 10k and he's a "B grade cyclist"
https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=13146370https://runningmagazine.ca/the-scene/the-fastest-runners-who-arent-runners/

Tom Dumoulin (retired) has run a 32:38

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The fastest runners who aren't runners - Canadian Running Magazine

https://www.facebook.com/marley.dickinson

Check out our list of the fastest distance runners playing professionally in other sports

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It's extremely likely Pogacar would be at least match that.

No way he doesn't run at least under 35. For someone with his aerobic ability, sub-40 pace would feel like a jog. My guess is 31-32 minutes, and with a couple months of training he could probably run around 28 low