At this point, I’d give Conner Mantz less than a 10% chance of ever winning one of the big three marathons — Chicago, New York City, or Boston. He’s clearly world-class, no doubt about that, but we’ve now seen enough races to get a realistic picture of where he fits in.
Does anyone here honestly think Mantz can win one of these races in the next few years? Or is his ceiling more like “perennial top American and occasional podium threat” rather than champion?
P.S. I think his coach, Ed Eyestone, deserves some of the blame for this too. He seems perfectly fine with Conner sitting back in a chase group as long as he gets the American record. That mindset might produce fast times, but it’s not the kind that wins big marathons.