Realistically, What Are Conner Mantz’s Chances of Winning a Major?

Not great unless the field is restricted in his favor, like NYC did for Shalane.

Maybe but Mantz and Eyestone know what the Workouts indicate Mantz's Time will be, Beating Kiplimo is an uphill battle for him

Yeah and they triggered Mary Keitany's period. Wittenberg is a witch!!!!

I do sometimes sense that they are a little too conservative. But I've never been in their shoes and I doubt you have. I suspect most of the people have been in their shoes have some PED help... So what they are trying to do is unbelievable to me.

Here's what we can observe. Connor has been on an upward trajectory across multiple big races on a short period of time with minimal injury.

If you're on that path, and you're a marathoner, hopefully you recognize the value of patience and staying the course.

He might be a threat to win worlds, which is technically a major. Other than that, nowadays, you have to be like a 202 marathoner to win a major. Mantz may be able to pr again in the future, so never say never.

no i never have. but i dont like the way he ran the race today. some of his other races he went out with the leaders and hung on until he couldn't do it anymore. i'd much prefer that type of attitude. and performance.

He was only less than 7 seconds from podium. Today was more about the record than podium. But he knew if it he broke the record he be very close to podium. One more thing Meb.

chicago wouldn't have as fast times if they didn't hve pacers i imagine. but like at boston, i'm sure people will still be winning that race in 2:07 20 years from now. most elite athletes at these major marathons will do what it takes to win but they're not going to push any harder than they need to. example: kiplimo shut it down about 2 miles to go and starting running really slow.

ohh that doesn't sound good! i never heard that one before. regardless, i think she wanted to win. that's what i like about connor too up until today!

Ed’s style reminds me Greg Popovic’s style which is longevity of their athletes.

Could Conner work on being more technical than he already is vs just sheer speed for future marathons?

Now that he's got the record, there's probably less worry on him going for it in a race and blowing up

2:08 to 2:04 is nice development though

Lol Kiplimo definitely did not intentionally slow down. Dude completely ran out of gas. I don’t want to be too critical of the guy who went for it, still ran 2:02, and won the race, but he overshot it and was dying at the end. He wanted the world record.

Yes — Conner could absolutely benefit from becoming more technical. Improving running efficiency, form, and pacing strategy would help him conserve energy, reduce injury risk, and extend his competitive longevity — much like Popovich’s focus on smart, sustainable performance.

You'd have preferred he go out with the leaders in 60:xx?

Are you the Jason in Asia?

Think you might have been drunk on bussy when you made this post!

Better chance he gets popped.

Wow. Big if true.

If it was still the original 5 majors then probably quite low

But by 2027 there could be 9 and he should still be running strong so you would assume more diluted fields which will increase his odds significantly

Eyestone has been his coach for eight years. If there is something wrong with his form that can be fixed, it would have happened years ago.