Building toward 15:30 5000m at 40 - Advice wanted

At least throw in a few 800 pace strides

You must be joking

Running sub 5 flat pace is a skill. If you neglect and don't get really good at that skill (as well as paces below it), then what are you doing? The ratios can change, but you gotta do all paces in training, all the time (206/439/1538 at 800/mile/5k this year at 40).

I do Daniel's style training, very focused on Threshold and Rep paces. Very little Interval paces thrown in (save that for race day).

I've run between 1510 and 1600 20ish times from the age of 38-44.

For me, the ability to run ~500 pace came from getting my mile PR down from 450 to 425. effectively, that makes 5k goal pace not feel so crazy.

So I'd do the opposite, get fast.

Yes, taking a full year away from your goal race pace would be a bad idea. Especially at your age, the speed will be the limiting factor more so than the endurance.

You can still build up your aerobic base while occasionally touching on faster paces and anaerobic energy systems (strides, 8 second hill sprints, etc.)

Personally, I feel that Jack Daniels’ training approach will lead to overtraining or stagnation.

So, are saying you trained for the mile?

Here's how I would approach it:

Do your regular 5k training building to a higher than normal volume (maybe 50-65). Goal would be to get yourself back around 17 shape. This would be by summer 2026. I think you'll have a decent feeling whether the goal seems reasonable based on your progression relative to the past and your motivation to use summer to build more.

Summer 2026 run higher mileage using doubles if possible adding in a tempo/steady state once or twice a week after adjusting to heat. I'm also assuming you're doing a few strides here and there. Once fall hits ideally you see that your tempo effort leads to a pace that is much better than expected because your aerobic strength increased better than ever if you've never done high volume. Drop your mileage and switch back to your 5k training. Goal is to get down to around 16 by end of spring.

Repeat for summer 2027 maybe even increasing volume compared to previous summer depending on how high you went then, time constraints, and how you feel. August may be too warm to run 15:30 and you need a little time to get in your race pace efforts before trying but maybe once it cools down a little you can peak for like a 15:30 turkey trot.

BTW I ran 15:20 on Turkey day at age 40 and was in sub 15 shape the following year but didn't race. I like to run 100 mpw during summer (usually late may until like mid to late August) using doubles so it's very time consuming. I also don't like doing interval workouts much. I relied mostly on tempo/steady state efforts (often progressive) plus sometimes doing 4x200 @3-5k afterward and then only running traditional intervals when actually preparing to race. As I've gotten older I've experienced much fewer injuries by doing the progressive efforts and much less speed work.

There is no key, or, all the keys work.

He could build up his base for a year and his steady pace will get immensely faster by itself.

He could do it your way and that could also work and that is arguably quicker.

Or a mixture of both.

If OP wants to become the absolute strongest possible runner with the highest ceiling for a PB, building a base for a year is a not a bad idea. This requires a lot of patience.

Really, it depends on the person. So long as OP doesn't burn out he'll get a lot better through consitency. However, 15:30 for 40+ year old is going to need work, talent and application.

Running nothing but easy miles is a waste of time unless you are recovering from injury/illness. Yes there will be big gains if you methodically get to big mileage, but you could make even bigger gains with a well structured plan of mixed intensities. Strides, hills sprints, tempo runs, threshold intervals, and steady running should be a part of every phase of a running block because they are low risk and high reward.

At 40 top end speed takes a permanent vacation. You won’t realize it until it is gone. Taking a year away from touching on speed is going to be very limiting in a way you have yet to experience.

As a 44 year old coach I dropped a 62 400 last week at practice and thought I may never walk again. Felt like a 48.

OH MY GOD SIX SEVENE????????

(I'm so sorry)

I am in the process of doing something similar, after barely running for years I am now building back up and aiming for a sub-16.

What is "best" for everyone is unique to the individual and their physiology but the most consistent factor for nearly all athletes breaking the 16 minute barrier is volume.

Ask anyone who competes locally and is breaking 16 what their weekly volume looks like and you will notice that there is a discrepancy between what other posters will claim is the "right" mileage and what athletes are actually doing. Most athletes will need to be running at least 60mpw/100kmpw with a weekly interval session, long run, and speed work thrown in. I would venture to say the average volume for someone in the sub-16 category is ~75 mpw or 120kmpw.

Not to speak for anyone else, but in my experience running competitively collegiate and high school programs have their athletes begin with primarily easy mileage while building up to their peak volume with a few strength-based sessions thrown in. As the season progresses, race specific sessions are thrown in for sharpening. This is the standard and is not anything new, so why do we need to do anything differently?

My 2 cents:
Do not limit yourself to only easy running for a year. You do not need an entire year to reach 50 mpw, especially considering you are in decent shape now and have ran 35+ mpw consistently in the past (albeit several years ago).
Begin with easy running for 8-12 weeks and get up to a decent amount of volume before adding in sessions. A weekly long run and strides incorporated after your runs will be all you need. You should also be lifting and doing strengthening exercises several times a week. Of course, prioritize recovery and nutrition. Running under 16 minutes is a good goal but it is by no means earth shattering and doesn't require you to be balancing on a razor's edge to get the most gains possible.

I ran a in the low 16:0x at around 40, and I think the limiting factor will be speed rather than strength, particularly relaxation at speed (I did off 40-50 miles per week, but was always more speed-oriented).

I would think of approaching it in a series of training cycles of three-fourth months long, where you start with a base-phase, transition through hills, threshold, Vo2 max and speed work (just a basic 5k program). Then have a couple of races, followed by a week or two of active recovery.

You can gradually increase volume through each cycle, and then you should naturally begin to get faster.

I would throw in strides (100m fast, relaxed running, not sprinting) after most sessions.

There are plenty of 5k training programs you could use for the blocks. One would be Pete McGill (former age world-record holder). https://www.amazon.com/Fast-5K-Crucial-Training-Plans/dp/1937715922

I think this would be more enjoyable and more efficient that just building a huge base and it converts the project into bite-sized chunks.

Norwegian singles bro

I’ve been reading more about this “NSA” approach and it’s completely in line with my thinking. People keep worrying about losing speed, but let’s be real: the 5000m is primarily an aerobic event. VO₂max workouts might look heroic, but in reality, they’re just taxing.
I also revisited Véronique Billat’s research on VO₂max training. Her work on vVO₂max (the pace at which you hit VO₂max) and the idea of maximizing time at or near VO₂max makes a lot of sense. Instead of grinding out long, painful reps, she recommends short, controlled 30/30 intervals, usually between 19 and 27 repetitions to build aerobic power efficiently without overcooking the system.

I'm younger than you (30) but mostly an adult onset runner -- grew up cross country skiing and rowed crew for a couple seasons in college -- and I don't do textbook norwegian singles by any means, but I have had a lot of success improving my 5k with a threshold based approach. Over the past 10 months i've brought it from sub 19 to sub 17 off 50-60 miles a week with 1-2 threshold workouts and a long run. Weeks where i do 2 workouts the long run is easy, weeks where i do 1 workout it's hard. Occasionally I do a double threshold day with the second session cross training on the bike or elliptical. I felt that built a lot of strength as i was able to get under 60 mins for 10 miles as well as under 4:50 for the mile. My mile does convert to a better 5k than my current best so I don't feel speed limited. Not sure I am ever going to see a sub 16 but we'll see what the next year brings!

This is probably the correct answer. I'm 44 and have gone from 17:44 to 15:56 in a year copying sirpoc84 training. For reference, I was hammering speed workouts, intervals, the whole package with coaches before. Dripping all of that and following the man himself almost 1:1 over the last 11 months has been the game changer. My aerobic engine sucked. Now it doesn't. Now I'm faster. This is my all time PBs, which were set in my mid 30s and I thought were out of reach. There is so much evidence pointing towards this is the best way to train, that I would be shocked if this wasn't your best bet.