I actually think this is an interesting question. Jakob has been one of the best ever the past 5 years and his career has included 2 Olympic gold medals, multiple 5k WC golds, many medals in the 1500m WC, and prs of 3:26 and 7:17. Do I expect Cole to match that in his career? No. But Jakob is currently injured and may have already reached his peak considering the number of years he's been training like a pro. I think Cole's best fitness is likely ahead of him so the question is who's better between a prime Hocker and a slightly past prime Jakob. Personally I think Jakob will have better PRs and could still run a WR 5k time, but Hocker's kick in championship races will be too much for Jakob to handle and he will win a few more 1500m and/or 5k golds.
Yaa as above although Hocker is now going to win any Champs 5k that is run slower than 12:50. He actually does have the best kick in the world in such a race, as he claimed, and even a healthy Jakob won't be able to match.
But. Peak Jakob will be stronger and if he dictates 12:45 or better, the tables turn.
Because I actually understand the hypothetical here I'll answer it. It's an either/or question - we have to pick one and assume from this point moving forwards that things like injuries etc are part and parcel of the game.
It's Cole Hocker.
He's younger than Jakob not just in age, but in terms of lifetime training volume/intensity seems far less advanced than Jakob is who was training at a level which enabled him to run a 3.56 mile at 16 and 3.31 for 1500m at age 17. As talented as Hocker clearly is he was not training at the level which pertained to those age group performances.
Is this also a reason Jakob is now breaking down physically? Maybe not, but maybe it is. Losing an entire outdoor season while you are only 24 years old is not a great sign, especially when he also lost time in 2024 to the exact same type of injury. Yes Hocker had some injury concerns of his own back in 2022 but he's been essentially injury free for almost the last 3 seasons and doesn't appear to have anything chronic as which might be the case with Jakob.
Finally, and as much as I am a fan of Jakob and his ability, Hocker just has a deeper skillset to win a wider spectrum of race styles than Jakob does. If not for the DQ in the 1500 we could have seen him global titles in a sub 3.28 race and a 3.34 race and honestly you could make a case that he's actually better in that 3.34/5 style championship race than he is in a glorified DL/wavelight-warrior'esque race like Jakob made Paris.
Over 5000m I felt he could be super dangerous in a race that went 8.15 through 3000m and didn't ramp up hard enough in the next mile which means he could use his power to run that 52.0 final lap in a 13.15 affair. I was not sure that could be the case in a sub 13 race that was 7.52 at 3000m but look what he did there.
Again, back to the essence of your question, if you can only pick one I don't know what the case is for Jakob as we are sitting here today, but I am sure someone will make one.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Again, back to the essence of your question, if you can only pick one I don't know what the case is for Jakob as we are sitting here today, but I am sure someone will make one.
You made a good case for Hocker and I probably tend to agree with you, but it’s not hard to imagine how Jakob could wind up having more future success. It just comes down to whether you think the guy who ran 3:26/3:43/4:43/7:17/7:54 and won 3 straight 5k golds is badly broken forever or you think he can stay healthy and get back to “at least” 3:28.0/7:20/12:38 shape in the next year or two. If he can get back to that fitness then he’s going to have a say in championship 5ks, and it’s no guarantee that Hocker’s always gonna be there and as good as he was in Tokyo.
Again, back to the essence of your question, if you can only pick one I don't know what the case is for Jakob as we are sitting here today, but I am sure someone will make one.
but it’s not hard to imagine how Jakob could wind up having more future success.
It's not hard to imagine and I think he will. Picking a guy doesn't automatically mean that the other guys career immediately is over. You gave the time "scope" of getting back to form in the next year or two and I think he probably can and will, I just think that Hocker has a better chance/can hold his form and his health together another three to four years and that's the question - 2026 and beyond.
With Hocker we have a guy who career timing is seeming to line up perfect with the Olympic cycles. I think 2024 was the first year of his peak window and I have often hypothesized that this lasts on average 4 years with the sports truly elite talents. Outside of that they are still great athletes, but nobody can just at their peaks for ever. Either way this puts Hocker in a position where he has a really legit chance (much better than we now understand Jakob had) to win the Olympic 1500m back to back which basically ends any discussion here because for Cole it completes arguably the hardest B2B in the sport and would trump Jakobs B2B in the 5000m even if he lasts that long.
I think Jakob's consistency will always trump Hocker in the long run, especially the longer we look into the future, and the other events that will fold into the mix.
Hocker has been lucky avoiding injuries. How many US middle-distance stars of the last 20 years have gone through their prime without injuries? If he doesn't get any serious injuries in the next four years, that would just add another red flag.
I still think Laros is going to dominate for a few years. This year can be compared to Steve Ovett in 1976 at the same age. Tipped to be the next star at the Montreal Olympics but can't live up to the expectations and is written off. Then comes back the next year on another level.
Hocker has been lucky avoiding injuries. How many US middle-distance stars of the last 20 years have gone through their prime without injuries? If he doesn't get any serious injuries in the next four years, that would just add another red flag.
I still think Laros is going to dominate for a few years. This year can be compared to Steve Ovett in 1976 at the same age. Tipped to be the next star at the Montreal Olympics but can't live up to the expectations and is written off. Then comes back the next year on another level.
Possibly the same for Max Burgin in the 800.
Not lucky. He struggled in his first two years as a pro (2022 and 2023), and now has seemed to acclimate to the current level of training necessary to be a 3:27 guy. But if he starts being more aggressive, trying to go after world records or such and up the ante, it's very possible he may end up overreaching - simply the nature and reality of the sport.
Laros is definitely legit despite his somewhat underwhelming showing in Tokyo, but him dominating isn't going to be a foregone conclusion for the next 2 years at least. By 28, probably. He seems to have taken the next step that Kessler was struggling to achieve this year.
Top runners at their peaks get injured and take significant time off. Seb Coe and Steve Ovett missed all of 1982 (ages 25 and 26 respectively) yet came back strong. Ritz missed 2005 (age 22) with a foot injury. Alan Webb missed most 2006 (age 23) after defeating Ritz at 10,000 in April and came back the following year to set his mile AR.
Jakob's problem is that 24 (he just turned 25) was the peak of his two older brothers who trained the same way. Henrik and Filip declined after 24. Plus, Jakob followed their same pattern of getting married and having kids. The demands of a wife and kids take the edge off, especially in Jakob's case where his wife posted that long, blubbering video a month before the Paris Olympics when he was busy training abroad. Credit to him for holding it together and still managing to win one gold, though he was favored for two.
Can Jakob get back on top? Sure. Will he? Time will tell.
Cole doesn't have the family demands of Jakob, nor does he fall into a clear pattern of two older siblings in the same regimen. It would seem, based on what we know now, that Cole has the better long term upside. It would be great to see Cole go after a couple WRs in 2026 especially given that there are no major championships (assuming he'll skip Tallahassee in January).
Hocker has been lucky avoiding injuries. How many US middle-distance stars of the last 20 years have gone through their prime without injuries? If he doesn't get any serious injuries in the next four years, that would just add another red flag.
I still think Laros is going to dominate for a few years. This year can be compared to Steve Ovett in 1976 at the same age. Tipped to be the next star at the Montreal Olympics but can't live up to the expectations and is written off. Then comes back the next year on another level.
Possibly the same for Max Burgin in the 800.
Lutkenhaus is 7 years younger than Burgin. That’s not to say Burgin won’t have a great career but it may be hard to “dominate” when the big three look to stick around for a bit, there’s a Irish runner about his age faster than him, and an American high underclassman with a faster PR.
Regarding Laros, I don’t think anyone will dominate the 1500. Since Centro won (and now retired) no one has gotten more than one outdoor gold. Maybe Hocker, Jakob, or Kerr get one more, but I’d say the winner of 2027 worlds and 2028 Olympics are different people
Hocker. They are nearly the same age, Jakob I think is about 8 months older but he has been training like a pro from a very young age, much younger than Hocker so his upside I think is much less. It also appears his body is starting to break down from all the training. Hocker, because he went through the American collegiate system, was several years behind Jakob when he turned pro but in the 4 years between Tokyo and Paris he's caught up and possibly surpassed him.
This seems to be the unpopular opinion, but I’m going with Jakob. At this rate, I think it’s pretty unlikely either of them win the 1500 again (or at least they have roughly even chances). Jakob (21/22), Tim (19/21), Wightman (22/25), and Kerr (23/24) have all gotten gold then silver at their next championship. Hocker is amazing, and maybe has the highest ceiling of the bunch, but you can make a good argument that Ethan Strand had a better 1500/mile year than Hocker, and Strand is younger, moving to altitude, and leaving the restrictions of the NCAA. Koech definitely had a better year than Hocker in the 1500.
Compare Hocker to Jakob’s year and Jakob comes out on top too (in the 1500/mile at least). Indoor gold and 1500/mile WRs. Hocker peaks better than anyone for championships, but as he and Kerr both showed this year, if you only show up for Worlds and anything goes wrong, you have nothing to show for the season (unless you double ofc).
They’ll surely both be contending in the 1500 for years to come. I don’t buy the idea that Jakob’s body is breaking down because he’s been training at an elite level for longer. Especially in a year where he broke 2 WRs indoors. People just have short attention spans.
The 5k might be another story. Hocker seems to have realized that a strong 1500 runner (like Jakob, Farah, Lagat, Katir etc) is near unbeatable in a championship 5k. It’s just too hard to front run a fast 5k in an era where 12:58 is tactical with over a dozen guys still in contention at the bell. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: 2008 Olympic Bekele gets destroyed by a peak Jakob. I’m not sure Hocker has a 12:45 in him, while I’m pretty sure Jakob has a 12:35 in him, and imo their kicks would be pretty similar. If Hocker is in 12th with a lap to go like this year, and Jakob is near the front like he normally is with a lap to go, even Hocker isn’t fast enough to close that gap. I think he probably could, but Hocker still hasn’t run 3:26.
So yeah, I take Jakob still. Probably half a dozen more indoor golds, and a few more outdoor ones as well (maybe more depending on if he’s good on the 10k).
Diamond League titles will stay in Jakob's favor. He is too sharp throughout the season, in comparison to Hocker, who peaks well. Olympic titles could easily be tied at two. If Hocker wins the double in LA, all of a sudden, it's 3-2. Hocker ran 3:27.65 while being cut off in the kick, after rounds, in Paris. No reason he can't run 3:26 and maybe get that record. World titles are in Jakob's favor, with two world 5000m titles, but that's not out of reach at all for Hocker. He has one world 5000m title. Add a 1500m and 5000m in 2027, and he's ahead. But it should be a good battle. Jakob's got a tough path here because in unpaced races, he has not so far been able to win in the 1500m, and now he's got a formidable 1500m foe in the 5000m. I think Jakob should pick up the 5000m record next year and he'll have a good shot at the 1500m record as well. Should be fun.