What Grok thinks the likelihood of top runners doping is

A few more:

Wanyonyi: 70%, Kenyan phenom with rapid 800m WR chase (1:41.11 PB); coach Claudio Berardelli linked to 6+ banned athletes (e.g., triamcinolone positives); LetsRun forums highlight doping stigma despite frequent testing; no positives but coach history fuels suspicion.

Brazier: 20%, Nike Oregon Project ties (Salazar banned 2019); 2019 WR (1:42.34) amid controversy but no direct allegations; injury-plagued but 2025 comeback (1:42.70) aligns with recovery; US testing mitigates risks.

Lutkenhaus: 40%, 16yo American with U18 WR 1:42.27 (sixth all-time senior); Reddit/LetsRun suspicions of PEDs or age cheating due to "too good to be true" leap; family coaching and recent pro coach hire raise flags, but US high school/NCAA scrutiny lowers odds.

Arop: 5%, Steady Canadian progression (1:43.24 PB 2023); world champ (2023) with no allegations; Diamond League consistency; clean RTP record.

Sedjati: 90%, Algerian; French police raid/investigation (2024 Olympics) on room/coach Amar Benida for doping suspicions pre-800m bronze; no positive but OCLAESP probe and "lightning finish" patterns noted; high-risk national context.

Kessler: 15%, American pro; some 2021 forum suspicions (vascularity/veins) but debunked as natural; steady HS-to-pro gains (3:34.36 U20 record); no failed tests or coach links.

Sabastian Sawe: 30%, Kenyan marathon world leader (2:02:03 2025); voluntary 25+ AIU tests pre-Berlin to counter "cancer" of Kenyan doping; proactive but East African baseline suspicion persists.

Habz: 50%, French/Moroccan late bloomer (31yo 3:27.49 PB 2025); sudden surge from sub-elite to top-10 all-time raises LetsRun doubts; no positives but "late-career" patterns echo suspicious cases.

Phanuel Koech: 85%, 18yo Kenyan with explosive 3:27.72 U20 WR (second 1500m ever); coach Berardelli (doping history); Reddit/LetsRun age/doping accusations; "preposterous" leap from 3:32 debut mirrors tainted breakthroughs.

Nico Young: 5%, NAU steady progression; AR 5000m (12:45.27); no suspicions in searches; collegiate/pro clean record.

Fisher: 25%, Nike; fan skepticism on WRs (e.g., Bekele's 10k) amid super-shoe era; no evidence but NOP/Salazar legacy taints; consistent testing.

Blanks: 20%, Harvard rapid gains (13:03 5k); LetsRun "no-name" suspicions but college environment/testing; Olympic 9th (2024) aligns with youth development.

Mantz: 10%, BYU steady; Olympic marathon qualifier; no flags; mission hiatus explains early gaps.

Wightman: 5%, British; outspoken anti-doper (e.g., Russia reinstatement criticism); injury recovery to 2025 silver; rigorous UK testing.

Clayton Young: 5%, BYU/ASICS; consistent marathon gains (2:08:00 PB); no suspicions; mission hiatus fits progression.

Kejelcha: 45%, Ethiopian WR holder (half-marathon 57:30); old LetsRun EPO-era doubts (indoor mile 2019); no positives but national systemic issues elevate baseline.

Gressier: 5%, French; thanks AIU for "leveling field" post-10k gold (2025); vocal anti-doper (Instagram rants); clean progression.

Isaac Kimeli: 10%, Belgian/Kenyan; steady (13:13 5k PB); no allegations; European testing regime.

Almgren: 5%, Swedish; consistent national records; no suspicions; Kipruto ban indirectly benefits but unrelated.

Bekele was not EPO era. Jakob's indoor mile WR was 3:45, not 3:48. Forum speculation of Kessler's VEINS?

AI basically did a Google search and didn't even cite good sources of information.

Oh boy. You think a guy that ran 7:17 has only a 15% chance of doping!? Uh, ok.

Way higher than that. I dont believe norway,usa or gb have rigorous testing in place,and i bet if most of their athletes test positive,they hide it,and sweep it under a rug. Guaranteed.

Grok has more faith in elite runners than I.

Bekele was during untested third generation epo .

Micera , or Cera by far the best form of it

could tell by the few athletes that benefited in those 2000 -early 2008 years before was started to get tested for with fuss of ,was it ramzi ....

So obviously any major athletes were warned about it come Olympics 2008 .

Such a lazy post.

Tell me what you think, not what some dumb AI “thinks.”

Points for speaking out against doping or being tested under USADA 💀

My guess is that every single current athlete on that list has or is using the endurance ped of choice to date .

from marathon down to even sprints

1500 event has changed alot .

All full of peptide """ Mots-c """"" .

And that is 100 per centile

Cento per cento .

Will grok tell you this .

Will seb coe tell you this .

common knowledge witin various circles

Why won't they even test for it .

Just do what did for Cera .

Tell them we test for it now , it slows use

Who is running the show there seb .

OP highly edited the provided answers.🤣

Micera .......

Alan Webb (born January 13, 1983) is an American former track and field athlete and former triathlete. He held the American national record in the mile, with a time of 3 minutes 46.91 seconds, from July 2007 to September 2023. He holds the record for the fastest mile run by an American high schooler, with a time of 3:53.43, set in 2001. Webb represented the United States at the 2004 Summer Olympics in the men's 1500-meters race. He competed professionally for Nike until the end of 2013. He retired after the 2014 Millrose Games.
Alan Webb

Never the same after summer 2008

regardless of injury .

The doping apologists and the imbeciles who accuse me of being 'racist' like to pretend that I do nothing worthwhile here in the fight against anti-doping. Just this one example - nobody here was talking about Wanynonyi being coached by Berardelli with all his numerous doping busts until I started to.

Most of Grok's percent likelihoods seem in the right ballpark to me.

One of the reasons for that is probably at least 10% of the information it is using is from my posts here.

And to think I'm constantly being banned by an admitted doper for lightly mocking a guy who repeatedly calls for peds to be legalized (because he has a questionable obsession with roided black athletes).

Famously anti-doping LetsRun.

It's a pretty good retard barometer.

"I asked an LLM and here's the slop:"

Ok, retard.

Indeed overall the numbers are rather low. And US highschool / NCAA scrutiny??

Anyway, I simply asked grok "how many elite runners are doping" without any other input, and the response was expectedly rather vague:

"Insights Specific to Elite Runners
Blood Doping Dominance: In distance running, blood manipulation (e.g., EPO) is prevalent, with Faiss et al. estimating 15-22% in major events. Kenyan and Ethiopian runners face scrutiny, but studies show global patterns.
Trends Over Time: No clear decline; 2011-2013 ABP data showed stability, and 2023 WADA figures indicate athletics remains a top violation sport (behind cycling).
Regional Variations: Higher in some nations (e.g., 30%+ in anonymous surveys from high-risk regions), lower in others like Danish elites (max 30% seasonal). U.S./UK runners report 5-10% in surveys but perceive 20-30% among peers.
Qualitative Views: Clean British elite distance runners (interviewed in a 2021 study) estimated 20-40% doping rates, citing lost opportunities and eroded trust as impacts."

Just a reminder that Large Language Models, (like the tech that powers Grok) largely work by "pattern-matching." That means that they have consumed billions of pieces of text from online, and answer questions by stringing together common words + phrases, and assessing existing "sources" on EPO, pro distance runners, etc. But it may not have a good metric for what is a legit source.
I'm willing to bet that a huge majority of the online content about EPO used by pro runners online is from this message board over the years. So there is a good chance this "assessment" skews heavily in favor of the LetsRunDotCom mindset because LRC is probably a major source in the training data.

I would like to see what Grok has to say about Josh Hoey.

Bekele's peak was EPO era (2004-2005). The window of getting a positive test from synthetic EPO was only 3-5 days and the false negative rate was really high. Also tests for new gen EPO like CERA (Continuous Erythropoietin Receptor Activator) were only developed after 2008. Basically before 2010 you only got caught if you were stupid(using synthetic EPO right before competition).

Pretty sensible estimations overall but I would say that for guys like EL G and Bekele the probability of using is more like ~99%.

Their performances were out of this world. The shoes were pretty basic and pacing was all over the place. Also the overall performance level of 5k dropped ~2% pretty much for everybody right when somewhat reliable EPO testing was developed (early 2010s).