If you were in Hocker’s shoes, what would you prioritize most for the 2026 season? Which would mean more to his legacy? Getting a gold in both 1500 and 5k at world ultimate champs or breaking the 1500m WR?
Absolutely the 1500m world record, or rather, the mile world record (which I believe Hocker has a better shot of breaking).
The World Athletics Ultimate Championships are a new thing. Basically World Athletics' answer to Grand Slam Track. It will certainly do better than GST since it's sanctioned by World Athletics but it's not proven like the World Championships or the Olympic Games. Athletes will show up because of the prize money, but it doesn't have the established prestige of the WC or OG.
Hocker has had a historic year. He's now the fifth man in history to win a global title in both the 1500m and 5000m after Nurmi, El G, Lagat, and Jakob. He has historic strength also, running 7:23 for 3K indoors and sub 13 numerous times for 5K.
Meanwhile, Hocker doesn't yet have a WR or WB to his name. He nearly got the short track 3000m WR but was nipped at the line by Fisher. His big rivals; Jakob, Kerr, Fisher, and even Nuguse all have had WRs and/or WBs to their name.
2026 is a unique year where there is no (regular) WC or OG, and GST will also not be coming back. So athletes will therefore be prioritizing record attempts on the Diamond League circuit.
If I were Hocker, I'd be putting all of my energy into going after a WR next year. While Hocker has strength, he won't break the outdoor 3000m, 2 mile, or 5000m world records (and probably wouldn't break the 2000m WR either). He could go after the indoor 3000m or 2 mile records at Millrose next year if he would like, but I could imagine him dropping down to the Wanamaker Mile in 2026. As great as Hocker is, he likes to have a sharp peak and I don't imagine him threatening Jakob's incredible 1500m/mile indoor world records. Also, Hocker's not a front-runner or time trialer; he runs his best performances when drafting behind and out-kicking someone.
As for outdoors, he could go after the 1500m or mile world records. Given that only 4 men in history have broken 3:27 (including one that was a confirmed doper and 2 that were likely dopers - the only one of our era to do it thus far was Jakob), it's a tall order to break 3:26. Since he ran 3:27.65 after 2 rounds in the OG (Jakob was "technically" everyone's pacer in that race), I believe he, when peaked, definitely has the talent to break 3:27, but not sure about 3:26. I'm not even sure Jakob can break 3:26, especially with his recurring achilles injuries.
As crazy as it sounds, I think the most likely outdoor WR for Hocker to break is the mile world record. Yes, he has never been in contention in the Bowerman Mile, always running 3:47-3:48 when the winner was 3:43-3:45. But if someone like Nuguse or Jakob is in the race, with the wavelights set to 3:43.13, and Hocker is in his prime, WC/OG-level form, then he can stick with the "WR-challenger" and outkick them like Noah Ngeny almost did to El G in 1999 (assuming weather conditions are good, of course, and they are on WR pace thru 1500m).
If you were in Hocker’s shoes, what would you prioritize most for the 2026 season? Which would mean more to his legacy? Getting a gold in both 1500 and 5k at world ultimate champs or breaking the 1500m WR?
The only way Hocker breaks either record is if he sits on someone until 100m to go.
Absolutely the 1500m world record, or rather, the mile world record (which I believe Hocker has a better shot of breaking).
The World Athletics Ultimate Championships are a new thing. Basically World Athletics' answer to Grand Slam Track. It will certainly do better than GST since it's sanctioned by World Athletics but it's not proven like the World Championships or the Olympic Games. Athletes will show up because of the prize money, but it doesn't have the established prestige of the WC or OG.
Hocker has had a historic year. He's now the fifth man in history to win a global title in both the 1500m and 5000m after Nurmi, El G, Lagat, and Jakob. He has historic strength also, running 7:23 for 3K indoors and sub 13 numerous times for 5K.
Meanwhile, Hocker doesn't yet have a WR or WB to his name. He nearly got the short track 3000m WR but was nipped at the line by Fisher. His big rivals; Jakob, Kerr, Fisher, and even Nuguse all have had WRs and/or WBs to their name.
2026 is a unique year where there is no (regular) WC or OG, and GST will also not be coming back. So athletes will therefore be prioritizing record attempts on the Diamond League circuit.
If I were Hocker, I'd be putting all of my energy into going after a WR next year. While Hocker has strength, he won't break the outdoor 3000m, 2 mile, or 5000m world records (and probably wouldn't break the 2000m WR either). He could go after the indoor 3000m or 2 mile records at Millrose next year if he would like, but I could imagine him dropping down to the Wanamaker Mile in 2026. As great as Hocker is, he likes to have a sharp peak and I don't imagine him threatening Jakob's incredible 1500m/mile indoor world records. Also, Hocker's not a front-runner or time trialer; he runs his best performances when drafting behind and out-kicking someone.
As for outdoors, he could go after the 1500m or mile world records. Given that only 4 men in history have broken 3:27 (including one that was a confirmed doper and 2 that were likely dopers - the only one of our era to do it thus far was Jakob), it's a tall order to break 3:26. Since he ran 3:27.65 after 2 rounds in the OG (Jakob was "technically" everyone's pacer in that race), I believe he, when peaked, definitely has the talent to break 3:27, but not sure about 3:26. I'm not even sure Jakob can break 3:26, especially with his recurring achilles injuries.
As crazy as it sounds, I think the most likely outdoor WR for Hocker to break is the mile world record. Yes, he has never been in contention in the Bowerman Mile, always running 3:47-3:48 when the winner was 3:43-3:45. But if someone like Nuguse or Jakob is in the race, with the wavelights set to 3:43.13, and Hocker is in his prime, WC/OG-level form, then he can stick with the "WR-challenger" and outkick them like Noah Ngeny almost did to El G in 1999 (assuming weather conditions are good, of course, and they are on WR pace thru 1500m).
Hocker will never be as good as Nurmi, Jakob, and El G. He needs to win more than one race per year as a start like another poster noted
Well...he's won two of the most important races in his career. Those are far more important than any GST or DL meet.
Unfortunately for him he's being compared to people who win both the important races and the less important races. You're not the best if you only show up once a year, you're the best when you show up throughout the entire year.
Absolutely the 1500m world record, or rather, the mile world record (which I believe Hocker has a better shot of breaking).
The World Athletics Ultimate Championships are a new thing. Basically World Athletics' answer to Grand Slam Track. It will certainly do better than GST since it's sanctioned by World Athletics but it's not proven like the World Championships or the Olympic Games. Athletes will show up because of the prize money, but it doesn't have the established prestige of the WC or OG.
Hocker has had a historic year. He's now the fifth man in history to win a global title in both the 1500m and 5000m after Nurmi, El G, Lagat, and Jakob. He has historic strength also, running 7:23 for 3K indoors and sub 13 numerous times for 5K.
Meanwhile, Hocker doesn't yet have a WR or WB to his name. He nearly got the short track 3000m WR but was nipped at the line by Fisher. His big rivals; Jakob, Kerr, Fisher, and even Nuguse all have had WRs and/or WBs to their name.
2026 is a unique year where there is no (regular) WC or OG, and GST will also not be coming back. So athletes will therefore be prioritizing record attempts on the Diamond League circuit.
If I were Hocker, I'd be putting all of my energy into going after a WR next year. While Hocker has strength, he won't break the outdoor 3000m, 2 mile, or 5000m world records (and probably wouldn't break the 2000m WR either). He could go after the indoor 3000m or 2 mile records at Millrose next year if he would like, but I could imagine him dropping down to the Wanamaker Mile in 2026. As great as Hocker is, he likes to have a sharp peak and I don't imagine him threatening Jakob's incredible 1500m/mile indoor world records. Also, Hocker's not a front-runner or time trialer; he runs his best performances when drafting behind and out-kicking someone.
As for outdoors, he could go after the 1500m or mile world records. Given that only 4 men in history have broken 3:27 (including one that was a confirmed doper and 2 that were likely dopers - the only one of our era to do it thus far was Jakob), it's a tall order to break 3:26. Since he ran 3:27.65 after 2 rounds in the OG (Jakob was "technically" everyone's pacer in that race), I believe he, when peaked, definitely has the talent to break 3:27, but not sure about 3:26. I'm not even sure Jakob can break 3:26, especially with his recurring achilles injuries.
As crazy as it sounds, I think the most likely outdoor WR for Hocker to break is the mile world record. Yes, he has never been in contention in the Bowerman Mile, always running 3:47-3:48 when the winner was 3:43-3:45. But if someone like Nuguse or Jakob is in the race, with the wavelights set to 3:43.13, and Hocker is in his prime, WC/OG-level form, then he can stick with the "WR-challenger" and outkick them like Noah Ngeny almost did to El G in 1999 (assuming weather conditions are good, of course, and they are on WR pace thru 1500m).
Hocker ran 3:27 when he was paced for 1400 meters, his next best time is 3:29 high which he ran two weeks after the Olympic final. He's not breaking any outdoor world records if his peak level form lasts for such a short amount of time.
if i was jakob, i wouldn't let any of these people into my record breaking attempts. He gets maybe 1100 of pacing, and they suck off of him for 1450? forget about it. but he's more of a man than I am, so will probably be happy to accept the challenge.
if i was jakob, i wouldn't let any of these people into my record breaking attempts. He gets maybe 1100 of pacing, and they suck off of him for 1450? forget about it. but he's more of a man than I am, so will probably be happy to accept the challenge.
He is
Ingebrigtsen told Norway’s TV2: "The day he contributes to the race for world records, I will take him seriously. But only then."
But I really doubt any of the current generation of runners is going to break the 1500 or mile world record if Jakob doesn't do it. Hocker and Kerr only show up for one race a year and Kerr is most likely past his prime in the 1500 with his injuries. Nuguse is hard to gauge since his results outdoors have really tapered off since he broke the American 1500 and mile records.
I think it's going to be the next generation of runners benefiting from the next generation of super shoes and bicarb and what have you that does it if Jakob doesn't do it, but who knows how much more benefit we can gain out of the super shoes without WA clamping down on them even harder.
The only way Hocker breaks either record is if he sits on someone until 100m to go.
Yeah I'm struggling to see or understand the path to a WR for Hocker here.
Also what, we've finally figured out that Jakob isn't going to get this record, so the new guy by default is Hocker?
I'll say this right now, if Hocker even just broke 3.27.0 it would be an absolutely incredible performance from him. Why? Because to run to that sort of time you have to be prepared to commit to the front of the race and in his entire career we have never seen him do this in the level of race he would need to do it in.
There have been 7 sub 3.27 races in history (and 8 performances) and all but one of them were non-competitive, blow-out time trial races.
El G 3.26.0 - 2nd place Laban Rotich 3.30.9
El G 3.26.12 - 2nd Lagat 3.26.34 - the only actually competitive sub 3.27.0 race ever
El G 3.26.45 - 2nd Rotich 3.29.91
Kiprop 3.26.69 - 2nd Makhloufi 3.28.75
Jakob 3.26.73 - 2nd Cheruiyot 3.28.71
El G 3.26.89 - 2nd Chirchir 3.30.88
El G 3.26.91 - 2nd Shabunin 3.34.63
I think it's just too simplistic to say "well with no major champs in 2026 this is when he will finally go for a time". I just don't think that is who he is. Jakob is wired to get out in front, chase split and numbers. Hocker is wired to chase guys down and muscle past them in the final 100m of races, but as I showed above it's extraordinarily rare for that scenario to play out in the really quick 1500m.
So you'd be relying on Jakob to get back fully healthy, forgo another season trying for the 5000m record (because the physical requirements for the 1500m and 5000m records are not the same and need specific in training) and have him basically pace Hocker through 1200m in 2.45.5 - essentially replicate the 2001 Brussels race just a half second or so faster through 1200m. Seriously, that is really wishful thinking - I'm not even convinced Jakob will ever be back in sub 3.27 shape which I'm sure upsets all the fanboys, but we will see.
I don't even think he needs it. He is already establishing himself as one of the greatest 1500m competitors ever. Honestly I think he should spend 2026 not over-racing/focussing on the 1500m and really try and run a great 2000m/3000m outdoors, and also try and run a great mile. If he can win the 1500m in 27 and then repeat in 2028 (which he has the ability to) then he is on the Mt Rushmore of the event with El G, Morceli and Coe and it might be a long time until anyone even challenges that.
But I really doubt any of the current generation of runners is going to break the 1500 or mile world record if Jakob doesn't do it. Hocker and Kerr only show up for one race a year and Kerr is most likely past his prime in the 1500 with his injuries. Nuguse is hard to gauge since his results outdoors have really tapered off since he broke the American 1500 and mile records.
I think it's going to be the next generation of runners benefiting from the next generation of super shoes and bicarb and what have you that does it if Jakob doesn't do it, but who knows how much more benefit we can gain out of the super shoes without WA clamping down on them even harder.
Laros is the logical guy. He doesn’t have the flashy time yet but that’s a function of the races he’s been in. Hocker’s deliberate approach will probably have him peaking for World Indoors/World XC(whichever he does) on top of Millrose, and then the Ultimate Champs (likely paced but a 3:29 race). Weve never seen Laros healthy a whole season so that will be the challenge.
He did this year. U.S. 5k champs and world champs 5k.
Nationals are irrelevant in this conversation
A lack of nationals is relevant in this way. For the outdoor season no nationals and his auto berth into the 5,000 and 1500 means he’s good to go for the Ultimate Championships. Winning or podiuming races on the DL circuit is really his best opportunity to race the best.
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.