Fisher and Young can medall in the 5000, but it requires a brave, unorthodox strategy.

colorunner123 wrote:

The usual strategy for Grant Fisher and Nico Young in a 5,000 meters is to draft behind the leaders for about two miles and then take the lead and push with a mile to go and burn out the rest of the field and kick to the win. But Grant Fisher tried this during the heat. He finished his last 1,600 in 3.56, and he was unable to shake most of the field. The field is too good. They're not going to lose contact. He can try going faster, a 3.54 or a 3.53. I don't know if he's capable of that, but the problem is that that probably still won't be enough to shake some of these guys, and he'll just burn himself out even more, making it easier for them to outkick him. And the same is true for Nico Young.

So what option do they have if they want to win this race? They can wait even longer. They could let the pace dawdle then wait until 400 meters to go or 200 meters to go. Now you're talking about trying to outkick Jimmy Gressier and Isaac kimelli and Cole Hocker, and George Mills, a 3.28 guy. It's not going to work. They can't outkick those guys in a slow race.

The only way that they have any hope of winning is for there to be a fast pace. And when I say fast, I mean under 12:50. If the race is that fast alot of the speedy guys will be left behind.

So they have to run a hard pace. They have to, and I know that that's hard, but it's their only option if they want to win. It's their only option if they want a medal. So my recommendation is that Grant Fisher and Nico Young team up and run hard from the gun. Run the first lap in 61 seconds. Go through 800 in like 2.03 and dare anyone to come with. Maybe Mehary will, but most of the field will not.

And Fisher and Young can alternate the lead, sharing the burden of leading. And if Mehary wants to draft off of them, well, so be it. But the rest of the field is going to be so far back that they won't be able to use these top two or three guys as rabbits.

Call it the Gudaf Tsegay strategy, which she used to destroy Beatrice Chebet in a 1500 last month.

I don't think it's guaranteed to work, but I think Young and Grant Fisher are both fully capable of running under 12:50. And if they do that, I think they have a good chance of winning a medal. I would give them a 30% to 50% chance of medaling in that scenario. Whereas if they sit and wait, I think their chances are less than 20%.

colorunner123 wrote:

The usual strategy for Grant Fisher and Nico Young in a 5,000 meters is to draft behind the leaders for about two miles and then take the lead and push with a mile to go and burn out the rest of the field and kick to the win. But Grant Fisher tried this during the heat. He finished his last 1,600 in 3.56, and he was unable to shake most of the field. The field is too good. They're not going to lose contact. He can try going faster, a 3.54 or a 3.53. I don't know if he's capable of that, but the problem is that that probably still won't be enough to shake some of these guys, and he'll just burn himself out even more, making it easier for them to outkick him. And the same is true for Nico Young.

So what option do they have if they want to win this race? They can wait even longer. They could let the pace dawdle then wait until 400 meters to go or 200 meters to go. Now you're talking about trying to outkick Jimmy Gressier and Isaac kimelli and Cole Hocker, and George Mills, a 3.28 guy. It's not going to work. They can't outkick those guys in a slow race.

The only way that they have any hope of winning is for there to be a fast pace. And when I say fast, I mean under 12:50. If the race is that fast alot of the speedy guys will be left behind.

So they have to run a hard pace. They have to, and I know that that's hard, but it's their only option if they want to win. It's their only option if they want a medal. So my recommendation is that Grant Fisher and Nico Young team up and run hard from the gun. Run the first lap in 61 seconds. Go through 800 in like 2.03 and dare anyone to come with. Maybe Mehary will, but most of the field will not.

And Fisher and Young can alternate the lead, sharing the burden of leading. And if Mehary wants to draft off of them, well, so be it. But the rest of the field is going to be so far back that they won't be able to use these top two or three guys as rabbits.

Call it the Gudaf Tsegay strategy, which she used to destroy Beatrice Chebet in a 1500 last month.

I don't think it's guaranteed to work, but I think Young and Grant Fisher are both fully capable of running under 12:50. And if they do that, I think they have a good chance of winning a medal. I would give them a 30% to 50% chance of medaling in that scenario. Whereas if they sit and wait, I think their chances are less than 20%.

objectiveobserver wrote:

colorunner123 wrote:

The usual strategy for Grant Fisher and Nico Young in a 5,000 meters is to draft behind the leaders for about two miles and then take the lead and push with a mile to go and burn out the rest of the field and kick to the win. But Grant Fisher tried this during the heat. He finished his last 1,600 in 3.56, and he was unable to shake most of the field. The field is too good. They're not going to lose contact. He can try going faster, a 3.54 or a 3.53. I don't know if he's capable of that, but the problem is that that probably still won't be enough to shake some of these guys, and he'll just burn himself out even more, making it easier for them to outkick him. And the same is true for Nico Young.

So what option do they have if they want to win this race? They can wait even longer. They could let the pace dawdle then wait until 400 meters to go or 200 meters to go. Now you're talking about trying to outkick Jimmy Gressier and Isaac kimelli and Cole Hocker, and George Mills, a 3.28 guy. It's not going to work. They can't outkick those guys in a slow race.

The only way that they have any hope of winning is for there to be a fast pace. And when I say fast, I mean under 12:50. If the race is that fast alot of the speedy guys will be left behind.

So they have to run a hard pace. They have to, and I know that that's hard, but it's their only option if they want to win. It's their only option if they want a medal. So my recommendation is that Grant Fisher and Nico Young team up and run hard from the gun. Run the first lap in 61 seconds. Go through 800 in like 2.03 and dare anyone to come with. Maybe Mehary will, but most of the field will not.

And Fisher and Young can alternate the lead, sharing the burden of leading. And if Mehary wants to draft off of them, well, so be it. But the rest of the field is going to be so far back that they won't be able to use these top two or three guys as rabbits.

Call it the Gudaf Tsegay strategy, which she used to destroy Beatrice Chebet in a 1500 last month.

I don't think it's guaranteed to work, but I think Young and Grant Fisher are both fully capable of running under 12:50. And if they do that, I think they have a good chance of winning a medal. I would give them a 30% to 50% chance of medaling in that scenario. Whereas if they sit and wait, I think their chances are less than 20%.

Perhaps you should have taken a look on the 2025 toplist in the 5000m before you posted.

So you think that Mehary is the only one who can hang on if Fisher and Nico goes sub 12:50?

What about Gebrhiwet, Mills, Balew, Gressier and perhaps even Jakob.

And we don´t know for certain that Fisher and Nico can go sub 12:50 without pacemakers even if they share pacing duty between them.

I don´t think there is any easy solution for the American runners. All 3 of them are among the favorites but so are the above mentioned, possibly except Jakob.