I saw his post-USAs interview where he said in training, he's more of a 4/8 guy than an 8/15/16 guy.
He also said he went from a 100 or 150-meter kick to now feeling confident holding that speed for 200.
It's likely he gets at least slightly bigger and stronger.
His best open 400 is 46.3, and that was at the high school level when he was at 1:45 for the 800.
Even if he can go under 46 now, which doesn't seem crazy, I doubt he would have made the Worlds team this year in the open 400. But his ability in the 400 at 16 isn't so far away from his 800 ability to dismiss all possibility that it could at some point catch up.
What do you think very long-term? In six, seven, eight years from now, is there a world in which he becomes better at the 400 than the 800?
No. He ran a 4:06 mile. This is not done by 400m specialists. He has the ability to eventually run 45.2 or so. This wouldn’t make him a 400m runner. He is an 800m runner.
No. He ran a 4:06 mile. This is not done by 400m specialists. He has the ability to eventually run 45.2 or so. This wouldn’t make him a 400m runner. He is an 800m runner.
You may be right overall. But I find it a stretch to say he will never run faster than 45.2. He more likely than not could break 46 right now and just got a 3-second PR in the 800. He has the body type to be able to build and retain muscle, and he probably has one or two more years of growth.
Yes, shaving a second off a 400-meter dash at that level is more significant than most people realize. But I think he's more like a 45.9 now. I don't think it's crazy to suppose he may go under 45 in the next, say, 4 years.
i would not be surprised to see him go 3:55, 1:41.x, and under 45.5 before he graduates highschool. im pretty sure he can break 46 and 4:00 rn
What's more impressive for a high schooler... let's say 45.9 in the 400 or, say, 4:01 in the mile? (Genuinely asking, actually. I know there are some points charts to compare performances.)
Clearly the 800 is his best relative event right now. I see him physically as more of a 400/800 guy than an 800/1500 guy as he gets into his 20s. But also clearly, he's capable of having great range.
I'm not arguing he'll be a better 400 than 800 guy long-term, but I think there's a non-zero chance in his 20s. And maybe a decent amount more than non-zero.
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
edited the speculative longer distance from 1600 to one mile
Even if he could run 44 mid 400, which he almost surely can't, that's not worth a 1:42 low 800
being able to kick the last 200 of an 800 would make it less likely he could approach 43
43 is just mind bogglingly quick. It is average sub 11 pace, not easy
I don't think there's any world right now in which he runs a 44 mid. He may be the last person in the world to say "he can't do X" about right now. Haha. But I really do think that.
He clearly is a better 800 runner now.
But with him being so young, his speed and muscular strength clearly pointing up, etc., his relative 400 performance could (not will, but could) close the gap sometime in his early 20s, I think.
Granted, projecting out an athlete performing this well at 16 often is a fool's errand, and often they have less room for growth many years into the future vs. others.
Whether it’s Brazier, Arop or Lutkenhaus, these discussions about what a supremely talented 800 guy could do at 400 or 1500 get a bit tedious. In all 3 of those cases you get half the people saying “they have 43 potential” and the other half saying “they have 3:28 potential,” when the truth is they probably have some combination of ~44-high and ~3:32 potential, which is why they’re mega talents in the 800. 44.90 would be the 50th fastest performer in the world this year; 3:32.50 would be the 50th fastest performer in the world this year. Arop, Brazier and Lutkenhaus are all top-6 in the world at 800 this year (and top-18 in world history).
I saw his post-USAs interview where he said in training, he's more of a 4/8 guy than an 8/15/16 guy.
He also said he went from a 100 or 150-meter kick to now feeling confident holding that speed for 200.
It's likely he gets at least slightly bigger and stronger.
His best open 400 is 46.3, and that was at the high school level when he was at 1:45 for the 800.
Even if he can go under 46 now, which doesn't seem crazy, I doubt he would have made the Worlds team this year in the open 400. But his ability in the 400 at 16 isn't so far away from his 800 ability to dismiss all possibility that it could at some point catch up.
What do you think very long-term? In six, seven, eight years from now, is there a world in which he becomes better at the 400 than the 800?
He’s an 800m guy and it’s not even close. Based on the World Athletics calculator, 1:42.2 is equivalent to 43.6. if he improves his 400m speed, he’ll improve his 800m time as well, so there will be no catching up,
I saw his post-USAs interview where he said in training, he's more of a 4/8 guy than an 8/15/16 guy.
He also said he went from a 100 or 150-meter kick to now feeling confident holding that speed for 200.
It's likely he gets at least slightly bigger and stronger.
His best open 400 is 46.3, and that was at the high school level when he was at 1:45 for the 800.
Even if he can go under 46 now, which doesn't seem crazy, I doubt he would have made the Worlds team this year in the open 400. But his ability in the 400 at 16 isn't so far away from his 800 ability to dismiss all possibility that it could at some point catch up.
What do you think very long-term? In six, seven, eight years from now, is there a world in which he becomes better at the 400 than the 800?
He’s an 800m guy and it’s not even close. Based on the World Athletics calculator, 1:42.2 is equivalent to 43.6. if he improves his 400m speed, he’ll improve his 800m time as well, so there will be no catching up,
I do agree that it’s by far most likely that his best event is the 800, but I do think the question of specialization and focused training is worth having. Obviously most of his training is focused around developing his 800 abilities, it’s pretty much impossible to say what his current level would be in other events if he completely shifted his training and only focused on these other events.
Rudisha’s record is run at an average 100 pace of 12.6, Van niekerks is a 10.75, training for the two events necessarily needs to be very very different, even though they’re adjacent events
Hahahaha you're insane. The kid ran 142. In no world is he a better 400 runner. Do you not understand what 142 is? You're basically saying he should be a mid 43 guy. Faster than quincy wilson. A lot faster. A year ago his 142 would've been the american record. It's pretty obvious his best event is the 800 and it's not even close
He’s an 800m guy and it’s not even close. Based on the World Athletics calculator, 1:42.2 is equivalent to 43.6. if he improves his 400m speed, he’ll improve his 800m time as well, so there will be no catching up,
I do agree that it’s by far most likely that his best event is the 800, but I do think the question of specialization and focused training is worth having. Obviously most of his training is focused around developing his 800 abilities, it’s pretty much impossible to say what his current level would be in other events if he completely shifted his training and only focused on these other events.
He trains like a 400/800m runner and there’s no focusing on one separately. Do you believe that if he could focus on the 400m, he would run 44/1:43, instead?
Hahahaha you're insane. The kid ran 142. In no world is he a better 400 runner. Do you not understand what 142 is? You're basically saying he should be a mid 43 guy. Faster than quincy wilson. A lot faster. A year ago his 142 would've been the american record. It's pretty obvious his best event is the 800 and it's not even close
You need to actually read the premise before throwing out the (unfounded) ad hominems that make you look silly.
No. He ran a 4:06 mile. This is not done by 400m specialists. He has the ability to eventually run 45.2 or so. This wouldn’t make him a 400m runner. He is an 800m runner.
You may be right overall. But I find it a stretch to say he will never run faster than 45.2. He more likely than not could break 46 right now and just got a 3-second PR in the 800. He has the body type to be able to build and retain muscle, and he probably has one or two more years of growth.
Yes, shaving a second off a 400-meter dash at that level is more significant than most people realize. But I think he's more like a 45.9 now. I don't think it's crazy to suppose he may go under 45 in the next, say, 4 years.
The degree in which the field effects time is far greater in a 800 than 400. Im not sure that he gained like 3 seconds of fitness in the past 3 months. Im guessing he was relatively close to this shape and just didn't have an opportunity to reflect his fitness. So I dont think its likely that his 800 indicates he's in significantly better 400 shape than previously.
Whether it’s Brazier, Arop or Lutkenhaus, these discussions about what a supremely talented 800 guy could do at 400 or 1500 get a bit tedious. In all 3 of those cases you get half the people saying “they have 43 potential” and the other half saying “they have 3:28 potential,” when the truth is they probably have some combination of ~44-high and ~3:32 potential, which is why they’re mega talents in the 800. 44.90 would be the 50th fastest performer in the world this year; 3:32.50 would be the 50th fastest performer in the world this year. Arop, Brazier and Lutkenhaus are all top-6 in the world at 800 this year (and top-18 in world history).
My thinking is less about times, and definitely not about times *right now.* More about how his body may develop.
I don't think he's really comparable to the others you mentioned in that *six years from now* he'll be 22, equivalent to a college senior.
I was more of an 800 and up guy in high school until my senior year (400/800/1600). I was a lower-end D-I runner and he was probably better than my career max in 8th grade lol. But we have similar body types.
His frame IMO can carry more muscle naturally as he matures a little more in age. And if you watch the YouTube video on LetsRun's channel, the one that's 10:xx long, he seemed to emphasize he's already training much more 400/800 than 800/1500. And seems really engaged when talking about his speed.
At this juncture the 800 is clearly his best event. It's impossible to project what he'll be at 22, 23, 24... has there ever been a true comp, even? But I posit there's a non-zero chance that his relative 400 ability *may* catch up to his 800 relative ability in idk, 5, 6, 7 years from now.
I saw his post-USAs interview where he said in training, he's more of a 4/8 guy than an 8/15/16 guy.
He also said he went from a 100 or 150-meter kick to now feeling confident holding that speed for 200.
It's likely he gets at least slightly bigger and stronger.
His best open 400 is 46.3, and that was at the high school level when he was at 1:45 for the 800.
Even if he can go under 46 now, which doesn't seem crazy, I doubt he would have made the Worlds team this year in the open 400. But his ability in the 400 at 16 isn't so far away from his 800 ability to dismiss all possibility that it could at some point catch up.
What do you think very long-term? In six, seven, eight years from now, is there a world in which he becomes better at the 400 than the 800?
The reverse Jeremy Wariner discussion has entered the Message Boards!!
You may be right overall. But I find it a stretch to say he will never run faster than 45.2. He more likely than not could break 46 right now and just got a 3-second PR in the 800. He has the body type to be able to build and retain muscle, and he probably has one or two more years of growth.
Yes, shaving a second off a 400-meter dash at that level is more significant than most people realize. But I think he's more like a 45.9 now. I don't think it's crazy to suppose he may go under 45 in the next, say, 4 years.
The degree in which the field effects time is far greater in a 800 than 400. Im not sure that he gained like 3 seconds of fitness in the past 3 months. Im guessing he was relatively close to this shape and just didn't have an opportunity to reflect his fitness. So I dont think its likely that his 800 indicates he's in significantly better 400 shape than previously.
I agree. That's why I have him pegged for maybe a 0.4 second improvement in the 400 at present rather than the 3+ seconds divided by two.
I know he did some work in Lane 2 in the 800. But the pace (his and the others'), the crowd and reeling in the best in the country down the stretch with a worlds team spot on the line... it's hard to think of a more ideal setup.
Nothing would totally shock me at this point. But he may have put out his best 800 time for a year or more already.