Josh Hoey or Yared Nuguse: who has the better chance of making it to World’s as a Diamond League winner?

I think Nuguse. I don’t see any scanerio where Hoey beats Wanyoni.

Can somebody explain how this auto bid works?

If Hoey wins the DL final then Hoey is on the team. If Hoppel wins the DL final then Hoey is on the team

Wild Cards will be available to:

• 2023 World Champions
• 2025 Diamond League Champions
• Winners of the 2024 World Race Walking and Combined Events Tours
• Best performers (by result) on the Continental Tour in the Hammer Throw

Only one wild card can be used by a country in a given event - so if a country has both the 2023 World Champion and the Diamond League Champion, and they happen to be different people, then the country would need to pick which wild card to use. The rules allow a country to enter a fourth person in an event where they have an athlete qualified via wild card.

Hoey and Nuguse would need to win the Diamond League Final in Zurich to get wild cards as Diamond League champions.

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2025 World Athletics Championship Qualification Process: Standards, World Ranking, Timing + More - CITIUS Mag

Details on the qualification process for the 2025 World Athletics Championship in Tokyo: standards, world ranking, wild cards, timing and more.

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Definitely Nuguse. The DL final unlocks a spot. He will need a good finish in his next race to secure his spot. Tentatively, Nuguse’s top competition will be Habz, and the Cheruiyots. Jakob is to be expected given his DL prowess and need for races. It’s not so simple for the following guys:

P. Koech - 8 pts, will need one more top 5 finish

Laros - 8 pts, but durability always a concern

Hocker - may opt out with a possible double at Worlds…he could just do one DL instead and put the head down

Kerr- Often skips DL Final

J. Koech - Might allow hamstring to heal, we’ll see

So while this will be a strong field, it might end up being missing heavy hitters galore.

Hoey meanwhile is getting Arop, Wanyonyi (trying to earn a spot for his country and back the selectors giving him a bye), and Sedjati. Good luck.

you're forgetting you have to be top 10 in the standings to make the DL finals to chase the wildcard.

nuguse is 1 point off the standard, is a proven DL winner, nd could probably clinch finals from 1 more DL race with a good finish if he's healthy. he doesn't have to exhaust himself to make the final to have something left for the final.

hoey has 0 DL points and would have to get around 10+ from 2-3 meets to make the final to then chase a #1 finish that would itself be unlikely. i think he could make the final but doubt he could win it for the goods.

the more interesting question, is nuguse feeling ok.

Agreed, but Nuguse will still have a tough time. I think neither will win it. I think Jakob or Koech wins in Zurich while wanyonyi wins obviously

But would this be a situation where Jakob gets into the final without the points so he doesn’t get the bye? Or can he still actually qualify

Because Jakob is obviously the favorite in every DL race he runs

I'll take Hoey. Nuguse has the better odds of getting to the DL final and facing a favorable matchup while there, but Hoey has a higher likelihood of running the next ~month on pure hate. 4th place for the second year in a row, and your dad built you a track after you considered retiring from the sport and then you won an indoor title?

I don't think it's an impossible task if he peaks for Zurich while Wanyonyi/Arop train through it en route to Worlds. Neither one of them has an easy path.

Another thing in Nuguse’s favor is he’s comfortable running in Zurich. He’s won in Zurich in each of the last two years.

Hoey's father can pay Wanyonyi and Arop to deliberately lose.

Thinking about this more. Any chance Americans would deploy team tactics in the DL Final to try to get a fourth entry for Team USA?

What are you talking about? Hoey is in 2nd place right now with 20 points

Nuguse looks like he would excel as a race walker. I think he can do it.

I think neither too. I think it will be hard to pick themselves up following the disappointment of USA's.

Nuguse will be coming up against a fresh and highly motivated Jakob, building towards Worlds.

Hoey will be up against a rotation of the strongest 800m field in history.

I enjoyed reading Jonathan Gault's take on this topic. He put Hoey in the "Not great, but there's a chance" category, and he has Nuguse and Kessler in the "It could happen..." category.

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2025/08/last-train-to-tokyo-ranking-the-americans-chances-to-earn-the-diamond-league-wild-card/

Reading Gault’s synopsis, thought Matt Wilkinson broke his foot at USATF?

Yes, Wilkinson posted on Instagram that he broke his 4th metatarsal in that race. He added: "As of right now, I’m on the team for Tokyo. But the guys that beat me deserve the spot and have three weeks to chase points/standards. All I can do is try everything in my power to get healthy before then in case my name is called."

I just did some googling on broken metatarsal recovery time, and the results I found were a minimum of 6 weeks. It just so happens that the heats of the world championship steeplechase competition are 6 weeks to the day from the U.S. championship steeple final.