Could Kipchoge break Sorokin's 100 km World Record?

Easy 40 km run in 2:24 in Kenya at 2700m elevation.

Probably, but he is getting pretty old now. Not everyone can consume the required carbs to run at the required pace for that long though. It is another one of those under appreciated talents required to do well at ultra distances. It is not guaranteed that kipchoge is one of those people.

If he can figure out a way to ingest enough carbs and maintain his PED regimen he might have a shot.

Theoretically he could beat it but it's a lot harder than people might think.
A 100k race is 2.37 times longer than a Marathon.

Historically not many top Marathoners even tried it. There was that one German (2:12 Marathoner I think) who ruined the very first official German 100k Championships and won unexpectedly. But that was it. He never ran another race.

Salazar won Comrades once but that was it as well.
I am sure there are a few more of these stories.

Keep in mind that the bodies of these top marathoners are shoot after such a long career.

So I would say, there is a very small chance but that's it.
It has to happen first before I believe it.

That’s Child’s play for him

Three different questions:

Could he now? Not even if he made it the main focus of the rest of his career.

Could he have done it if he started training for it 10 years ago? Yes, easily. But it might have taken a few tries.

Could *some* sub-2:06 marathoner, whoever turns out to be the “Kipchoge of the 100k”, break the record? Yes, even while stopping for pushups every mile.

No shade to the 100k record. Sorokin is an incredible ultrarunner. We all know the marathoners are on a different level though. But training and specialization are real; no way an 862-year old Kipchoge, who I’ll remind you had enough speed to outkick El Guerrero in a 5k, can just jump in the 100k and win.

You could have given us three different answers and we could have figured out the questions.

You’re cherry picking with the Kipchoge and El Guerrouj result. El Guerrouj had far better leg speed than Kipchoge and it has nothing to do with running 100K, anyway. Did you mean to type 862?

Three different answers:
Could he now? Not even if he made it the main focus of the rest of his career.

No.

Could he have done it if he started training for it 10 years ago? Yes, easily. But it might have taken a few tries.

Probably after a few tries but he didn't try.

Could *some* sub-2:06 marathoner, whoever turns out to be the “Kipchoge of
the 100k”, break the record? Yes, even while stopping for pushups every
mile.

That feels very slow. If you look at comrades which is 90km and it's been done around 5 20 which is another 45 mins for the next 10k so seems the 100k record is softish so I think many people could do it for the right pay day..

That said many pros have attempted the move up with faster pbs and struggled but often towards the end of the career.

I don't think Kipchoge could do it anymore but10 years ago with the right training changes would be pretty easy

Why would an elite marathoner even try this unless there was a cash prize? No one cares about the 100km world record outside of a few ultramarathon nerds.

They are going to focus on making $$ in their prime and the money is in marathon appearance fees and prize money. I guess a shoe company could sponsor it and pay for a WR but again, the incentive would have to be more than what they could get at say a WMM

as yes

Takahiro Sunada, a former WR holder (6:13) is a 2:09 marathoner.

worldathletics.org

Takahiro SUNADA | Profile | World Athletics

Takahiro SUNADA, Japan

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He was also 3rd in IAU World Championships, and won IAU European Championships. What is really surprising is that he also placed 8th in Fukuoka and 4th in Berlin while racing those ultras.

Women's WR holder, Tomoe Abe, is a 2:26 marathoner and World Championship bronze medalist.

worldathletics.org

Tomoe ABE | Profile | World Athletics

Tomoe ABE, Japan

Open link

Keep in mind when the Marathon PR was achieved.

I would think that a 2:13 in 1985 was a very strong performance. Takahiro Sundada did a 2:10 Marathon in 2000. If you look at the Marathon world record progression chart Rob de Castella ran a 2:08:18 in December 1981.

First sub 2:05 was run in 2003 by Paul Tergat. In 2023 Kelin Kiptum brought it down to 2:00:35.

So basically in the earlier years of performance ultrarunning 1985-2005, the top guys had marathon times in the 2:20ies. Now it's more in the 2:10s. But again, it's not like every 2:10 Marathoner will be a top ultrarunner. Only few of them will succeed in Ultrarunning and some might do just one race at all.

And this is just for the 100k road distance, it's way different for trail ultras especially 100 mile races.

en.wikipedia.org

Marathon world record progression

World records in the marathon are ratified by World Athletics, the international governing body for the sport of athletics. The late Kenyan athlete Kelvin Kiptum set a men's world record time of 2:00:35 on October 8, 2023, at...

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I mean, lots of people thought Zersenay Tadese would obliterate the marathon WR after running 58:23 back in 2010 (which was 2:03:59 at the time), but the guy never ran faster than 2:08:46.

Why? Probably because he couldn't fuel himself well enough for the distance. As others have said, being able to stomach and metabolise the ridiculously high amount of carbohydrates you need to put into your system is a talent in itself.

And it becomes exponentially more important in a 100k, where you don't lose 10 minutes from a bonk, you lose hours (or you don't finish at all).

Put world marathon major money on 100k race distance and that record goes down easily

This it in a nutshell.

Have you all considered that he (Kipchoge) might be contractually obligued NOT to dive into ultramarathon?

Attention has a monetary value in itself. Nike's paying him good money to be their Marathon Guy face. It might be bad for business if he shifted his focus to a distance done by fewer of their overall consumers.

I think he has every chance to break this record since he's very close to it.

Who is close to what?