In the 800 he has to go up against peak Wanyonyi, meaning a gold medal is very unlikely. It cannot be taken as a given that Hoey will be able to beat Arop, Sedjati, etc.
In the 1500 there is a bevy of 3:27 and 3:28 studs. These guys are probably all better than Hoey in a rabbited race, but Tokyo won't be rabbited. If it is slow, say 3:35, I like Hoey's chances a lot.
In the 800 he has to go up against peak Wanyonyi, meaning a gold medal is very unlikely. It cannot be taken as a given that Hoey will be able to beat Arop, Sedjati, etc.
In the 1500 there is a bevy of 3:27 and 3:28 studs. These guys are probably all better than Hoey in a rabbited race, but Tokyo won't be rabbited. If it is slow, say 3:35, I like Hoey's chances a lot.
The race will not be slow. We are far past that point.
I want to see Helicopter Hoey flying down the backstretch of the 800m.
(His trademark “Helicopter Hoey” moniker refers to the way his arms exaggeratedly wind down, like helicopter blades, when he crosses the tape to come to a stop.)
In the 800, Josh Hoey, the 11th fastest 800 meter runner of all time will face the 3rd through 8th fastest runners of all time at that distance.
Hoey has the 46th fastest indoor 1500 of all time and the 4173rd fastest outdoor 1500 of all time. He will face more than 5 runners who have covered the distance faster.
Somehow he is going to do better in this event though? Josh Hoey is a huge underdog and medalling in the 800 would be shocking. If he continues, maybe he can be a favorite to medal for LA.
In the 800 he has to go up against peak Wanyonyi, meaning a gold medal is very unlikely. It cannot be taken as a given that Hoey will be able to beat Arop, Sedjati, etc.
In the 1500 there is a bevy of 3:27 and 3:28 studs. These guys are probably all better than Hoey in a rabbited race, but Tokyo won't be rabbited. If it is slow, say 3:35, I like Hoey's chances a lot.
The race will not be slow. We are far past that point.
If it slow, I am going to repost your comment and you will eat crow. A slow race is ALWAYS a possibility.
(His trademark “Helicopter Hoey” moniker refers to the way his arms exaggeratedly wind down, like helicopter blades, when he crosses the tape to come to a stop.)
The actor that played Eric Liddell in “Chariots of Fire”, did the same in the movie (see @timestamp ~1:40:
In the 800, Josh Hoey, the 11th fastest 800 meter runner of all time will face the 3rd through 8th fastest runners of all time at that distance.
Hoey has the 46th fastest indoor 1500 of all time and the 4173rd fastest outdoor 1500 of all time. He will face more than 5 runners who have covered the distance faster.
Somehow he is going to do better in this event though? Josh Hoey is a huge underdog and medalling in the 800 would be shocking. If he continues, maybe he can be a favorite to medal for LA.
Hoey just beat all of those fast 800m guys save one in Monaco. He now has the second-fastest time in the world this year. Hoey medaling in the 800m in Tokyo this year would not be shocking to me.
In the 800, Josh Hoey, the 11th fastest 800 meter runner of all time will face the 3rd through 8th fastest runners of all time at that distance.
Hoey has the 46th fastest indoor 1500 of all time and the 4173rd fastest outdoor 1500 of all time. He will face more than 5 runners who have covered the distance faster.
Somehow he is going to do better in this event though? Josh Hoey is a huge underdog and medalling in the 800 would be shocking. If he continues, maybe he can be a favorite to medal for LA.
Hoey just beat all of those fast 800m guys save one in Monaco. He now has the second-fastest time in the world this year. Hoey medaling in the 800m in Tokyo this year would not be shocking to me.
Nor would it surprise me or anyone else. The question I posed in the title is whether he has a better chance of winning a gold medal in the 800 or 1500.
Hoey just beat all of those fast 800m guys save one in Monaco. He now has the second-fastest time in the world this year. Hoey medaling in the 800m in Tokyo this year would not be shocking to me.
Nor would it surprise me or anyone else. The question I posed in the title is whether he has a better chance of winning a gold medal in the 800 or 1500.
Yes, we're ignoring that stupid question and having an actual discussion instead.
In the 800 he has to go up against peak Wanyonyi, meaning a gold medal is very unlikely. It cannot be taken as a given that Hoey will be able to beat Arop, Sedjati, etc.
In the 1500 there is a bevy of 3:27 and 3:28 studs. These guys are probably all better than Hoey in a rabbited race, but Tokyo won't be rabbited. If it is slow, say 3:35, I like Hoey's chances a lot.
Why do you think Hoey is better in an unrabbited race that will likely be no slower than 3:31. If anything, Hoeys tactics and kick could in a 1500 could be a bit of a weakness/unknown. He’s actually really good in rabbited races or races where he goes out hard.
It would be a mistake to not focus on the task at hand and look beyond the Trials, thinking that box is already checked off, in either the 1500m (which arguably is the more difficult to navigate in the US this year) or 800m.
ok you might be onto something. Last year was only a 3:27 race because Jakob led at 3:26-27 pace for 1300m. The 2022/23 WCs were only 3:29 races. With Jakob coming back from injury, and facing a 4th year of losing the global final after leading, he may not try to lead this year. If that happens, who knows how fast the race goes. GST was won in like 3:34-35. I think it's probably won in 3:29-31, and Hoey has run 3:29.
With at least 5 3:26-27 guys in the race, and at least a couple with great kicks, I'm not sure Hoey has a better chance at gold than in the 800. He just beat all the top contenders but 1 at Monaco, and is clearly in 1:41 shape with over a month to WCs.
Hoey just beat all of those fast 800m guys save one in Monaco. He now has the second-fastest time in the world this year. Hoey medaling in the 800m in Tokyo this year would not be shocking to me.
Nor would it surprise me or anyone else. The question I posed in the title is whether he has a better chance of winning a gold medal in the 800 or 1500.
I was responding to Kvothe, who said he'd be shocked by Hoey medaling in the 800m this year.
For your question, I'm guessing the hypothetical scenario you're asking us to imagine is if Hoey did one event instead of the other. If he did both events, then I'd say his chances of winning gold in Tokyo are the same for both events: 0, because the double would be too difficult given the timetable. Just making the US team in both events would be brutal, requiring 5 races in 4 days at the US championships.
If he's only entering one event, then I like his chances better in the 800m. He's better in that event, and he has more experience running it.
He's coached by Rinaldi who keeps volume on the light side; not great for championship racing.
Hoey was doing a lot of high volume sessions in winter/spring. I saw that he did 15 x 300 meter hill in the morning, then came back with 25 x 400 @ threshold in the evening. If this is indicative of his foundational training, he should be at least as strong as anyone else over the heats. I guess we'll see soon enough.