and then we have on the day, conditions, type of race, type of trip to consider.
you can run 142 quality performance lose a couple of seconds, due to a couple of unfortunate route changes.
you can bet on guys that screw up races one off, or put in a solid mediocre performance after a long training block early season ...
the classic was Coe in 1980, in world record form, and blows the 800 final, due to running wide, letting Ovett gap him, kind of in a fog thinking he could make up 20 meters in the last lap, ...against Ovett who was really a 142 man himself,
so you got great odds for Coe in the final of the 1500, where Ovett bombed as well.
where Ovett was a good bet with odds after the olympics.....
bet against the flow and take advantage of stupid people.