What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo?

As was my comment in another thread, shortening the race will not help Ingebrigtsen. How do you squeeze other runners?

Basically, hit 800 at around 1:55-56 (try to control the race such that you're in the lead), then make a long squeeze for home, especially accelerating over the final 200 and 100

Euro splits were 1:55.86 at 800, 2:38.0 (roughly) at 1100 (42.14), then 53.95 for the final 400. If you can put yourself in such a position that they need a 12.5 100 to catch you in the final 100 (while going a bit wide) you can win

His best strategy is to turn the tables by sitting and kicking just like the guys that have recently beaten him. He needs to learn to trust his finishing speed. He will have plenty if he doesn't waste energy trying to pace the field.

If his 1:46.6 is legit indication of his leg speed, or close to it, he has zero chance of winning with a sit and kick. He can’t learn to trust something that doesn’t exist.

There's nothing he can do. It's a crapshoot but Yared will win.

It's 100% not any more than Josh Kerr's 1:50 stinker from GST is an indication of his speed. And it's not like Kerr's 1:45 is burning up the track even for a 1500 guy. These two guys are very similar runners. Both rely on their strength. The difference is in how they run the race.

His best chance is to run low 3:26 from the front. His chances decrease with every second slower the race goes out.

draft off koech or habz. get position and turn screws hard from 500 or 600 out

Which Koch? There are two that can run 3:28

He needs to hope someone else takes it out reasonably fast and he can sit in 2nd place. If he has to lead the whole thing fast then he will get out kicked for the 3rd time in a row. If it's a completely slow sit and kick race, there are other athletes with better top speed who have run 1:43 in the 800.

His best strategy is to do what El Gerrouj did and have a team mate work for him as a pacemaker in the finals.

It's not likely to happen like it does in professional cycling because of the different psychology in the two sports. Every runner in the final thinks that they can win a medal. Cyclists tend to be more realistic.

whoever is there

In no universe is either one going to set a fast pace. The one that does set the pace would be giving the advantage to the kickers and Ingebrigtsen.

If Ingebrigtsen doesn’t set the pace, the 800m split will be 1:55, or slower.

His best strategy will be to stick to the 5k.

Yes. Jakob doesn’t back his kick waiting until 200 to go we’ve seen that. But the dumbest thing he can do is allow his competitors to run in a straight line near exactly 1500 meters by rabbiting it all out. Like El Guerrouj in 2004 go from some distance out (probably 700-900m) and squeeze the pace. 5-6 guys will jockey for coveted position and impatience will kill some off. Someone might even go by and miscalculate it, so Jakob can outkick them. He’s not a terrible kicker in a 3:28-3:31 race, I really don’t believe that.

Just do this:

What? Kerr has run 1:45 this year and outkicked Hocker in a GST 1500m. Kerr outkicked Ingebrigtsen in the 2024 WC and Paris, and Wightman outkicked him in the 2023 WC. Jakob and Kerr are not similar runners, the former can destroy the latter at 3000m and 5000n

With his superior strength for the 1500m, if he had matching MF leg speed, he would never lose.

I'm not sure slightly weaker are the words I would use to describe this field. While solid, it pales in comparison to the men who will be on the starting line in tokyo. I also think he was only able to succeed that way because he was the only 3:27 guy in that field. Now that he's joined by a host of 3:27 and 3:28 guys, I'm not sure Jakob can hurt them as much that way.

Regardless, for all you can say about Jakob, you gotta respect his dedication to winning over 1500m when it is so clearly not his best distance and clearly a much stronger field than the 5000m and 10000m (not to say the they are weak by any means).