5000 WR is not happening in Oslo

TL;DR Chep is a generational talent @ 5000/10000, Kejelcha, Aregawi and Hagos are "just" insanely good.

Joshua is a Luka Doncic, the others are "only" SGA.

A WR attempt is not a race.

Hagos a second and a half off and Kejelcha almost 3 seconds off the WR happened in the best 5000 race ever, not in a TT running solo for 5 laps.

Sure, they could say "once the last pacemaker leaves, it's on and let the best man win" but this would be extremely odd even for Ehiopia. It's not healthy competition, it's putting huge pressure and stress bw countrymen.

There is simply no way that Jakob goes through 3000m in 7:36 with clean even splits that he isn’t capable of going under 4:59 for the final 2000m. It is only a question of when he runs 12:30.

Has the field been released yet? If fisher is there and healthy he could probably get it.

Americans are completely delusional.

Well the biggest problem is who the heck knows what's going on with Hagos, as he's skipped the last two GSTs and hasn't raced since April. They lost Aregawi from the field and he's probably the prime candidate to break it. Kejelcha is certainly great, but he feels more like the guy who takes the race to sub-12:40 and then gets outkicked. That's putting a lot on his shoulders for him to push early set this thing solo. I don't see anyone sticking with him once he takes off if he decides to. Perhaps Mehary, Gebrhiwet or Girma would try. It's possible instead he doesn't quite make it and the chase pack of guys like Girma, Krop, Gebrhiwet, Nico, Mehary and Lobalu wait and then outkick him in the last 200.

I really agree strongly with two things you wrote - your headline and part I bolded.

Maybe because he came to prominence very quickly and at a weird time in society, but I'm not sure we really appreciated how tough Cheptegei was - I certainly didn't, until he did what he did in Paris last year. And when you say Kejelcha is "not him", I think he is "not him" in the sense that he isn't tough enough to grind this one out in the final mile, wavelight or not.

12.35 is still damn tough. I think Jakob running 7.17 + his championship exploits in that 13.10 sweet spot (+/- a few seconds), has probably inflated this belief that 12.35 is going to get trampled all over (by him), but don't forget that Bekele and Cheptegei were/are both 10000m/XC studs that also held/hold the 10000m WR's and won at least one world XC. A great 3000m can be run by an elite miler, basically maxing out their threshold and aerobic capacity - Morceli, El G, Aouita etc etc.

But the only guy who doesn't have serious 10000m chops and is in that upper echelon of 5000m guys historically is Komen and his 12.39 is significantly off the current WR. Every other sub 12.45 guy in history has run well under 27.00. So I am with you on your prediction re the WR, I think if Jakob proves it is in the ballpark of his capability (need to see him at least run sub 12.38/9 as a lead-in because 12.48 to sub 12.35 in one step seems a ridiculous expectation), something in the 12.34.0 range is probably where he taps out.

Back to Oslo, low 12.40's for the win.

Hmm disagree about the 10,000m resume and Jakob needing to prove a faster 5000m first before tackling the WR.

Cheps went from 12:57 in 2019 to 12:35 in 2020. That is a HUGE leap. I'm pretty sure a 7:17 guy can make a smaller leap to take down the 5000m WR, with change.

Komen didn't have a career long enough to entertain the 10,000m, but obviously had the chops from 1500-5000m.

Bekele and Cheps favoured 10,000m and XC because that's what you did, especially the Africans. Jakob has favoured 1500-3000m, no room for 10,000m and XC (although he has proved to be the best at Euro level).

Otherwise agree the WR isn't going down this weekend.

I know and understand what numbers suggest.

Just two equally strong arguments for you to consider:

1. Roughly a second and a half off Chep's WR happened in THE best 5000 race ever. The equivalent of the 800 2012 Olympics finals. One of a kind.

2. The previous WR belongs to some dude named Bekele. Yes, super spikes. Yes, Mondo tracks. Yes, wavelights.

Still. Do you think shaving about 7.5 seconds from Bekele's best 5000 is a done deal?

Oh, and #3. When JI goes for it, at the very least, he will run about 4 laps by himself. Chep did 5. Do you understand how hard is to grind that solo?

And, again, I believe JI will do it. But no, he's not running 12:30. Not 12:32 either. And no matter what IAAF scoretables say, because they rely on % time decreases from previous performances data, if he managed a low 12:33 that would be even mightier than 7:17:5x

Do you really think 56:42, as outlandish as it is, that Kiplimo run alone from the 5k in a fast-ish course at best stepping in literal puddles by the end is better than 7:17? Because scoretables say so.

With proper pacemaking, on a good weather day in Valencia Kiplimo would've clocked sub 56:30 that same morning.

7:17 and change is very, very, close to current physiology limits.

As a rule of thumb, IMHO under ideal conditions 56:29 is, too.

And everything starting with 12:33 is in that same ballbark.

12:30 is just fiction.

This has 14 to 1 upvotes/downvotes? 12:30 is an insane time, definitely better than 7:17. I’m not gonna be too bullish in saying he’ll never do it, but I don’t think he will. It’s like the logic here is: 7:54 and 7:17 were stunning times, what would be equally stunning for 5000? But 12:35.36 is better than 7:58 or 7:20.67, and Jakob is likely better at 3k/2 mile than he is at 5k.

I agree that 12:35.36 has probably been undervalued in recent years, though it’s fairly likely to go down in the next 5 years (by a second or two, most likely). Hard to see it going down in Oslo unless Yomif has had an unreal stretch of training; I’d think Aregawi is more likely to break it and he’s not in the race. Hagos did run 12:36.73 with a big last lap last year, but it’s just hard to believe a guy who ran 12:47 in 2012 can just keep PRing.

Also, agree with the above poster that Jakob doesn’t need to work his way down to record level with a series of fast 5ks, like Salvitore Stitchmo likes to say every time this subject comes up.

That's fine - it's my opinion. Never claimed it to be fact.

And the cool thing is, we are going to find out one way or another aren't we. He could even answer the question for us if he plans something in his near future that isn't straight down to a legit attempt with WR pace wavelight or pacers.

Basically it comes down to if the Ethiopians are together at 3500m ahead of WR pace it will turn into a race and they'll slow to 12:40. There would be a better chance if it was any one of them giving the record a shot.

1. Trump? Yes.

2. Fisher? No!! 7:22 and 12:44 indoors just called. They want your blinders removed.

Call me crazy, but I think 12:35 is one of the softer WRs. We saw 12:37 eons ago. 12:35 was done by a 10000m guy who could not touch 7:17.

Is 12:30 "definitely better than 7:17"?

We've seen 7:20/12:37 for years.

Then 7:20/12:35 for a while.

7:20 was widely considered to be the greatest WR.

Now 7:17.

Jingy can run 12:29 IF he has a great buildup. (ie Not 2025.)

I’m team Jakob on this but we will have to wait and see what he does. No point in arguing about it.

That said, if the rumor they were going to pace at 12:31 for him was true then he’s definitely going sub 12:30. The guy does not miss on these record attempts.

I don't think we ever saw 7:17 coming for the 3000m, so why should we put a cap on the 5000m at 12:34/35?

Cheps got his WR running even splits more or less. Jakob will match those splits then drop the hammer in the last 600m.

Very fun to speculate.

Try this perspective:

Jakob's 7:54.10/2-mile WR averages 3:57/mile.

This is where the guessing starts.

Believe no one currently alive could run back-to-back-to-back 4-flat miles for a 12:00/3-mile.

However, could Jakob or someone else -- at peak fitness -- average 4:02/mile to split 12:06 at the 3-mile mark?

Then, adding another 26 seconds for the remaining 172 meters (60 sec/400 pace), run 12:32 for 5000?

These simple calculations put Cheptegei's 12:35 in perspective; he effectively averaged 4:03/mile.

If you think someone running today could break 12:30, then you believe that someone can run 3 consecutive miles in 4:01 each.

For my money, we first need to see the 2-mile WR get down to 7:50, or the 3000 WR drop to 7:15, for that to happen.

yomif kejelcha: 6'1 and 128lb; world youth champion, world junior champion, 2 x senior world champion; twice as many diamond league wins as cheptegei; held the wr at indoor mile and half marathon; 3:47/7:23/12:38/26:31/57:30.

poor tactics/performances on the biggest stage a few times and hasn't got the big sexy world records his talent deserves but he's every bit as talented as cheptegei and more and he's only 27. wouldn't be surprised by anything from yomif if things come together from him.

ok yes but i love the attitude and i want him to run sub-12:30 so he gets an upvote. It's like when someone says they think George R R Martin is gonna finish Winds of Winter.