Although the field is fast enough for an AR, the hype is not.
The one pathway I see for young to BREAK the 5k AR is for it the be in either Tokyo or LA, and for Fisher to DNS for whatever reason.
I mean, nico is younger than Grant and he can definately feed off that when Grant retires or moves to the roads, but at this point it would take a miracle for him to break grants AR as long as Grant is still running track.
That would be a huge shock, but Nico has pretty much been following in Grant's footsteps since highschool. His trajectory is very similar.
I was going to disagree, but I forgot Grant's record is technically the indoor mark of 12:44.09. I was thinking of his outdoor 12:46.96, which I think is right around where I'd put Nico as an over/under. Sub-12:44 would be super-impressive, but he does seem to be in phenomenal shape.
Although the field is fast enough for an AR, the hype is not.
The one pathway I see for young to BREAK the 5k AR is for it the be in either Tokyo or LA, and for Fisher to DNS for whatever reason.
I mean, nico is younger than Grant and he can definately feed off that when Grant retires or moves to the roads, but at this point it would take a miracle for him to break grants AR as long as Grant is still running track.
You don’t really know what you’re talking about. There’s a good chance that the winning times for the WC or Olympics won’t even be sub-13:00. Off the top of my head, the 1984 5000m final was the last time that distance was run like a TT.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
Although the field is fast enough for an AR, the hype is not.
The one pathway I see for young to BREAK the 5k AR is for it the be in either Tokyo or LA, and for Fisher to DNS for whatever reason.
I mean, nico is younger than Grant and he can definately feed off that when Grant retires or moves to the roads, but at this point it would take a miracle for him to break grants AR as long as Grant is still running track.
No, Fisher is not running in Oslo so Nico can set an AR. Fisher can try to reclaim the AR but it will be Nico’s record until that happens.
No, Fisher is not running in Oslo so Nico can set an AR. Fisher can try to reclaim the AR but it will be Nico’s record until that happens.
I'm a huge nico fan, but the 430 milers makes a good point about there being an age and experience gap between nico and grant. That gap is all that's needed to prevent nico from obtaining that record.
No, Fisher is not running in Oslo so Nico can set an AR. Fisher can try to reclaim the AR but it will be Nico’s record until that happens.
I'm a huge nico fan, but the 430 milers makes a good point about there being an age and experience gap between nico and grant. That gap is all that's needed to prevent nico from obtaining that record.
I agree that Fisher is still better than Young, but Young’s fastest time is less than 5 seconds off of the AR and it’s far from impossible that Nico can get the record in Oslo. Fisher can probably run sub-12:40, but he won’t be there.
That would be a huge shock, but Nico has pretty much been following in Grant's footsteps since highschool. His trajectory is very similar.
Didn’t grant run 12:51i then set his outdoor record later that year? It took Grant a couple years to run a 12:51 level performance, Nico did it in his first pro season. If it was being paced for 12:45, I think Nico would have a good shot at running that, but like 12:31 or whatever it’s being paced for is wayyyy too fast unless you’re in that kind of shape.
That would be a huge shock, but Nico has pretty much been following in Grant's footsteps since highschool. His trajectory is very similar.
Didn’t grant run 12:51i then set his outdoor record later that year? It took Grant a couple years to run a 12:51 level performance, Nico did it in his first pro season. If it was being paced for 12:45, I think Nico would have a good shot at running that, but like 12:31 or whatever it’s being paced for is wayyyy too fast unless you’re in that kind of shape.
We've also compared Nico to Rupp in the past, so here is how Rupp, Fisher, and Nico compare in their PBs at 3k, 5k, and 10k starting with the years they turned (YTT) 18, with the caveat that Rupp didn't have super shoes and wavelight before his transition to the marathon, and Fisher didn't have them until his early to mid 20s. The fastest in each event for each year is in bold.
YTT 18: Rupp 8:03, 13:37, 29:09 | Fisher 8:32, NA, NA | Nico 7:56, 13:44, NA
YTT 19: Rupp 7:49, 13:37, 28:15 | Fisher 7:50, 13:30, NA | Nico 7:56, 13:22, NA
YTT 20: Rupp 7:49, 13:37, 28:15 | Fisher 7:50, 13:30, NA | Nico 7:56, 13:11, NA
YTT 21: Rupp 7:49, 13:30, 27:33 | Fisher 7:48, 13:30, NA | Nico 7:37, 13:11, NA
No, Fisher is not running in Oslo so Nico can set an AR. Fisher can try to reclaim the AR but it will be Nico’s record until that happens.
I'm a huge nico fan, but the 430 milers makes a good point about there being an age and experience gap between nico and grant. That gap is all that's needed to prevent nico from obtaining that record.
Nico is gonna run between 12:39-12:42.
Conditions are perfect and Nico is in excellent shape.
Age and experience isn’t an issue here- however Nico will run a lot faster and will lower the record 3-4 years down the line too.
Grant is the better runner right now, however Grant will have to reset the record after Oslo, but that’ll eventually be overtaken by Nico again.
I think ya’ll over underestimating the shape Grant is in. Nico can be in AR shape and still can be whooped by Grant.
yeah buddy it's less than zero even if that doesn't make sense to you
Mathematically, there is no such thing as less than zero percent. It's like saying he can't do it, and then saying he super can't do it. Or like saying someone is going to die, and then say they will double-die.
Someone can only die once. Just like nico can only have a maximum negative chance of zero percentage.
His percent chance of getting this record while Grant is still doing track is NOT zero percent. It's about 1 percent. You make it sound like creating a negative 0 (-0) percentage probability is somehow making your argument stronger.
Number lines due not exist when talking about percentages.
Now, for something to have an absolute ZERO percent chance, mathematically, it has to equate to a scientific IMPOSSIBILITY. meaning it's not scientifically possible. Nico doesn't meet this criteria either. If he had no arms or legs, this would be the case. But as long as he has arms and legs, then there is always a mathematical POSSIBILITY of atleast .0001 percent. Just like me running a sub 4 mile at age 38. Is it possible? Yes. Is is probable? No. <1 percent chance. But as long as chance does scientifically exists, then the mathematically possibility, atleast according to mathematics and sir Issac Newton, is always atleast .0001%.
It's never mathematically 0% until possibility is ruled out scientifically.
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