My NCAA Outdoor TF Distance Predictions

10000m Podium Predictions
Gold: Ishmael Kipkurui (FR) - New Mexico
Silver: Evans Kurui (SO) - Washington State
Bronze: Habtom Samuel (SO) - New Mexico

Unlike the 5000m, the 10000m national field hasn’t grown too much in depth. A majority of the top finishers from last year’s event are returners; except for the top two finishers. Someone of Ishamel Kipkurui’s talent doesn’t need much of an adjustment period to become a top finisher in the NCAA: after a slightly disappointing indoor season, he has been dominant, winning numerous strong races, breaking the collegiate record, and showcasing that he is THE titan to be reckoned with. With his personal bests and strong tactics now being unveiled to the rest of the competition, I believe that he will make a strong attempt to ensure that the competition, who has a lot less accolades than him, doesn’t have a chance to take him down.

Evans Kurui was unstoppable during the cross country season until Cross Country Nationals. In the indoor season, he was unstoppable until Indoor Nationals. In the outdoor season, he has so far been dominant. With a 10000m PR of 27:37.32 from the Stanford Invite, he has showcased that he isn’t too far behind the fastest runners in the NCAA. However, what sets him apart from the gold and bronze medalists is that this race is the only one he will be running. After just missing out on the 5000m, he will be able to shift his focus completely to the 10000m; an event that he has seen great success in so far. Depending on how the race ends up going, I believe he will be able to run near the front and push himself to something special.

Habtom Samuel, my predicted gold medal winner in the 5000m, will also be an important benefactor in the 10000m as well. Just like Ishamel Kipkurui, he also broke the old NCAA 10000m record. The difference between him and his teammate, however, is turnover. If the race ends up being slightly tactical, the odds of him being able to stick on and run a blistering final lap are slightly less. During the indoor season, especially during a race with equivalent laps (Indoor 5000m), his tactics were less than ideal. If something similar were to happen in the 10000m, he would be at a disadvantage and possibly use up more energy than necessary to get back where he wants to be. Even though he has been able to come back from disastrous events in the past, the field in front of him is so strong that his odds of success are lower.

OTHER POSSIBLE PODIUM NAMES:
Denis Kipngetich (SO) - Oklahoma State
Dylan Schubert (SR) - Furman
Victor Kiprop (SR) - Alabama
Ernest Cheryiuot (SO) - Texas Tech
Dismus Lokira (FR) - Alabama

3000m SC Podium Predictions
Gold: Matthew Kosgei (FR) - New Mexico
Silver: James Corrigan (JR) - BYU
Bronze: Geoffrey Kirwa (FR) - Louisville

Another event that has been imploded with East African talent, the bar to become a high-quality NCAA steeplechase runner has skyrocketed. In fact, it’s so strong that I believe that an American Olympian won’t even win! In fact, a possible future Kenyan Olympian will win, Matthew Kosgei. In nearly every single steeplechase race this season, he has been dominant, as he is undefeated. He has shown that the mindset of chasing the world standard, 8:15, has led him to go after the goals he wishes to achieve. After defeating impressive competition at the Stanford Invitational (and defeating SEC Steeplechase Champion Kentucky Freshman Collins Kiprop Kipngok) and then taking his regional race from the gun, I believe that he has the guts and the willingness to try and make this an honest race, and I believe with his “why”, he will ensure that the race is something special, and the win is his.

Putting an American olympian in the silver position was a tough decision to make, but an honest one. Despite how dominant he has been this season in the Big 10 in both the Steeplechase and the 5000m, he hasn’t proven that he is in shape to run an extremely fast steeplechase this season YET. If the NCAA steeplechase becomes a fast affair, as it is one of the more likely event, it may come to a shock to him. Although a disappointing performance like his from last Spring is unlikely, the competition this year may use his title as motivation to chase after something he believes he is; the top placement in the NCAA. This is why I believe that despite his immense talent and experience, he will need to go into the well to fight off his competition.

The current NCAA steeplechase record holder with an 8:13.89 at the Bryan Clay Invite, Geoffery Kirwa, easily won his East regional heat. However, with the competition in the West, he will have to fight a multitude of challenges to prove that he can perform in postseason races. In the ACC Championship, he attempted to run a solid 10000m, but he faded significantly. Even though he was able to bounce back a few weeks later, he is still a wildcard in how he will perform in both the prelims and finals, especially with a field that holds so much depth; many of which he did face when he ran his personal best.

OTHER POSSIBLE PODIUM NAMES:
Collins Kiprop Kipngok (FR) - Kentucky
Joash Ruto (FR) - Iowa State
Rob McManus (JR) - Montana State
Bismack Kipchirchir (FR) - Akron
Brett Gardner (JR) - NC State

If you have differing opinions or predictions, please put them below. These are my beliefs

Bump, Looks like solid analysis, I don't have any varying or different predictions.

But as a fan I am cheering for Corrigan to win the steeple.

Holy ChatGPT

God forbid a man has hobbies

IDK what makes you think the 10k hasnt skyrocketed... Just earlier this season we saw the new New Mexico guy break the collegiate record and last year it was set by Nico Young. To qualify for regionals in both east and west the 48th fastest times were about 20-30 seconds faster than normal. The 10k might be the most improved distance event over the past 4 years.

But, hey, AI won't be able to tell you everything...

Start lists for the events come out Friday. Looking at the W 800 and 1500 the heats could be very tough. If I got it right 1 W 1500 heat could have 12 runners with a pr of 4:08 or faster while the other heat would be mostly 4:09 to 4:12 runners. In total 17 in the field have run sub 4:10 so at least 5 of those won't make the final. And 5 4:08 or faster runners could not make final if I got the heats right. In the 800, 7 runners who have broken 2:00 this season plus Jallow who did last year. Heats look to be a bit more balanced especially with only 2 Qs per heat.

Tough to call these but I will say in the 1500 Flockhart, Congdon, Kazmierska, O'Sullivan and Appleton have looked the best but I think Appleton has to be careful about not getting trapped back in the middle of the pack against this level of competition. In the 800 Rose looks the best, then Hunter, then Paige/Chepngetich/Willis/Bossong which still leaves a few sub 2:01 runners very close.

The distance races I think are easier calls as Kosgei looks like favorite for both 10 and 5, then Hartman for 2nd in both. Then I will go with Scrimgeouer in the 10 and Kennedy or Noe in the 5. For the 3000s easy to say Doris then LHL and then Napolean or maybe Baloga (in a rematch of NY HS steeplers for a few years back). If LHL is really looking for the standard Doris should start a little slow and see if LHL will lead.

edit: Noe or Scrimgeouer for 3rd in 10. On paper maybe Cherotich of OR but she has been a bit inconsistent I think

I’m hoping you’re wrong and Hartman takes one of the races. On paper, Hartman has better mile speed with a 4:24 vs 4:36 for Kosgei. I could not find Kosgei‘a 1500 PR but Hartman has gone 4:06.74 there. If the 10 is fast, which I sort of doubt, Hartman’s best bet may be to concede that to Kosgei and then concentrate more on the 5 and use her speed at the end.

I do suspect that Kosgei has more mile speed than she has shown.

My opinion despite as well as Hartman is running, kosgei is stronger and also has more burst.

Smart breakdown of the W side. I expect the 1500m heats to yield a surprise or two and won't be shocked if El Arfaoui, Jelelgo or May somehow worms onto the podium. The title race easily has the potential to be just as thrilling as the Paris M 1500m final.

It can be lazy to say "I don't trust _________ to deliver when it counts." That said, I have Chepngetich/Willis/Paige on top in the 800m, though I'm happy to be wrong on this one.

Mile speed is not equivalent to closing speed in the 5/10 and no one in either field can match Kosgei in the final 400/800. However, cumulated fatigue and tactical (in)discipline could factor into a potential upset in the 5000m.

I think there's a strong chance the 3000SC unfolds as a processional with sizable gaps btwn 1/2 and 2/3, similar to the 2022 final--Lemngole [9:10--9:05] / Halladay-Lowry [9:16--9:12] / Napoleon [9:26--9:22]. My inkling is that Doris will straight up blast this one because 1) she's supremely fit and peaked; 2) she'd like the attention of the Kenyan selectors for Tokyo; 3) the Pre Classic snub stung a little bit.

I can see Lemngole front running a stellar time but unless she blitzes the first K in 3:00 or faster, I don’t see LHL just letting her go. I’ll guess she follows right on her heels until the penultimate water jump or ~500m to go. Lemngole 9:07, LHL 9:11.

at the regional Doris was 3:02.95 (at slightly beyond 1000)

A tall order, but Halladay-Lowry's current ceiling in this event with faster competition is unknown. Wayment soloed 9:16 holding 15:15/9:26/4:30 bests at the time, so LHL (14::52/9:18/4:31) approaching 9:10 with an ideal pacer seems possible. If the race unfolds as you described, it would be cool to see both athletes avoid pushing into the danger zone and safely home under Wayment's post-season collegiate mark of 9:09.

The heats are posted and usual I got them a bit wrong but no matter. In the W 1500 each heat has at least 7 runners with a seed time of 4:08.x or faster. Based on regionals tactics there is a runner in each heat (May/Rono) to make the pace fast which might be bad news for May as I don't see her in top 5 in hear heat.

On the M side, Green, Martin, Murphy, Sahlman and Teffra are in the same heat

Men’s start lists:

https://www.rtspt.com/ncaa/d1outdoor25/men_start.htm

Women’s:

https://www.rtspt.com/ncaa/d1outdoor25/women_start.htm

I think a sit-n-kick affair would bring Maatoug, Chamberlain and maybe another who haven't shown frightening form recently into the mix and put the Friar into greater danger. With a quicker pace, May should have just enough fitness and savvy to advance (with Appleton, Ayyildiz, Congdon and El Arfaoui). Jelelgo might be unlucky in Heat 2.

Dylan Schubert (M 10000m) and Toby Gillen (M 5000m) are two others whose "just enough fitness" and guile could carry them higher than expected.

I may be underestimating May, but on Chamberlain she matched O'Sullivan's 0:59 final lap in the regional heat so I think she could edge out May for top 5. And heat 2 has 7 very good runners all capable of 4:06 off a fast pace as well.

I agree, the RC threat is real if the pace isn't quick enough. If May hits the bell at 3:02 running the shortest line, I like her chances, though she may need to close under 64 if Chamberlain is fitter than I suspect.