I'll make an attempt. For these purposes I'm assuming Lars doesn't somehow have a seventh year and that Mo will not return to Augsburg. I honestly hope I'm incorrect on both.
If you were to run a simulation on lacctic and remove all of the seniors, you get this result:
1. St. Olaf - 28 points
2. St. John's - 62 points
3. Macalester - 82 points
4. Carleton - 86 points
5. Bethel - 160 points
6. Concordia-Moorhead - 186 points
7. Gustavus-Adolphus -198 points
8. Saint Mary's - 223 points
9. St. Scholastica - 257 points
10. Hamline - 288 points
11. Augsburg - 337 points.
A few things to consider - I'm certain whether Lacctic has been updated to include times from this track season, so Hootie's strong freshman season and the return of Indy/Brauer may not be included to the same degree. Also, this obviously doesn't include any incoming athletes. An All-MIAC freshman for any team other than St. Olaf could greatly effect team scores. I'm hopeful someone posts recruits so we can adjust team scores.
The Oles face three major losses in All-American Andrew Skemp, Mile All-American Sean Hartney, and 5th-year Anders Cote. The Oles appear to return a strong front group, but will need some of their seemingly endless supply of uknowns to step up.
Top Returners:
Kevin Turlington: A returning All-American, 2nd at MIAC's. Runs a 24:21.9, 30:01, and 14:11.84. If Bati doesn't return, he should be the conference favorite.
Jack Deaver: 4th at MIAC's, Runs 24:53.3 and 14:49 with a 9:10.33 steeple. After a below average Indoor season and seemingly being stuck at just over 15:00 he appeared to overcome the stalled Ole training and ended on high note. If he makes a similar jump in Cross Country he could be a good replacement for Skemp.
Gael Manzur-Strandlund - 5th at MIAC's. Runs 25:05.7 and 14:44.37. Inexplicably didn't improve at the 10K distance this Spring, but the sub 14:45 5K is very promising.
Ignatius Fitzgerald - 9th at MIAC's. Runs 24:51.5 and has a strong Outdoor season runnning 3:48.5, 8:52.30 steeple, and 14:34.73. The Oregon transfer's emergence will be the biggest difference maker for the Oles in a bid to be nationally-competitive.
Parker Max - 13th at MIAC's. 25:34.9 and 14:56 as a JR. Seemingly injured for parts of the track season.
Eli Doran - 18th at MIAC's. Runs 25:32.6. Seemingly injured after running 8:51.67 in December. Will be a key piece for Ole depth.
Alex Bjork - 24th at MIAC's. Runs 26:03.5 and 15:15. Very few PR's this track season, but appears to be better on the grass.
Other contributors to watch - SR Angelo Fiataruolo (34th at MIAC) and SO. Quinn McCabe 8:51/15:28, but injured all track season and freshman Cooper Gunderson 32:23/15:34.
This young group got much better during the Outdoor season and will have loads of optimism heading into the summer training block. If the Oles slip any, the Johnnies will be ready to pounce. The Johnnies return 10 of their top 11 and don't graduate any scorers. Their top 3 is as good as anyone in the MIAC, but they will need others to step up.
Returners:
Vincent Kaluza - 14th at MIAC champs. Runs 25:08 and 14:57. Kaluza enjoyed a breakout season running sub 15 and a 32:10 in the heat for his first 10K. His 9:32 steeple puts him near the top of the MIAC. If his Spring success can be translated to the grass, expect big gains.
Eamon Cavanaugh - 17th at MIAC's. Runs 25:28 & 14:55. Another Johnny with extensive track PR's this year ranging from an 8:42 Indoor 3K to his 31:32 10K in March.
Cole Stencel - 19th at MIAC's. Runs 25:38 & 14:45. Stencel had the biggest improvement curve of the Johnnies big 3. His best 5K results beat Deaver and barely lost to Manzur-Strandlund. If he is clicking on all cylinders and he still runs No. 3 for the Johnnies, expect the first non-Northfield win in a decade!
Nick St. Peter - 30th at MIAC's. Runs 26:04 and 15:12. More of mid-distance specialist, St. Peter showed great improvement on the track running 1:53 and 3:54. Whether he close the gap to the Johnnies Big three remains to be seen.
Jacob Malecha - 33rd at MIAC's. Runs 26:15 and 15:18. Malecha took 30 seconds off his 5K this season and ran a 9:34 in only his fourth steeple. Look for a similar jump to his freshman to sophomore year improvement.
Liam Sheeley - 49th at the MIAC Champs. Runs 26:52. Appears to have been abroad or injured during track.
Max McCoy - 52nd at MIAc's. Runs 26:39/16:08. Similar to St. Peter, McCoy has enjoyed his greatest success in the mid-distance events. A 9:46 steeple suggests he can be a sub 26 runner next Fall.
Collin Berg, Lars Molenkamp, and Peyton Martinek could also be scoring contributors in the Fall.
Regarding recruits Power said he was happier than a pig in shti or some other hillbilly saying about his class. I haven’t seen social media announcements, so he could be full of shti himself.
Macalester is an intriguing team. While hit hard by graduation, they continue to stockpile talent and the strong track season from their young talent provides optimism. They will have to run a tight pack to challenge for second and to hold off the senior trio of Carleton. We can also expect a blue-chip recruit or two as Schofer has proven to be one of the top recruiters in the MIAC.
Key Losses - Reece McKee (11th), Nick Ihrke (29th), Ben Crotteau (46th).
Returners -
Tyler Edwards 10th. Runs 25:19/15:07- Edwards was injured most of Outdoor, but had a massive Indoor season. If he returns to form, he'll challenge to be a top five finisher.
John Ihrke 26th. Runs 25:48/1:51. While more of a middle distance runner, the top freshman 800 runner in the country will surely show continued improvement at the 8K distance. Unlike the Oles 800m runners, Macalester develops runners that are strong at all distances. It doesn't seem a leap to see him as a top 15 MIAC finisher.
Jordan Galloway 41st. Runs 26:36/15:35. Galloway showed continued improvement this Spring, hitting PR's at the mile, 1500, 3K and clocking his first sub 4 1500m. Galloway ran similar times in the 2023 XC and finished one spot higher at the 2024 MIAC championship, so Mac fans were surely excited to see a strong Track season.
Daniel Wiltse 45th. Runs 26:41/15:31. While more of a middle distance runner in his first year, Wiltse seemed to be extending his events in the Outdoor season. This could be helpful with the Scots graduation losses.
Quinn Hoisington 54th. Runs 26:44/15:30. Hoisington showed improvement at the 8K distance all season after not racing much as a freshman. Another young sub 4 1500m runner that will add depth.
Jay Lebakken - 64th. Runs 27:12. Lebakken is more of an 800m runner, clocking 1:56 this Spring.
Caleb Hatlevig - 75th. Runs 26:53/15:52. Hatlevig had an outstanding freshman campaign and wills surely be in the mix after a strong track season.
Other returners: Brock Adams, Jack Riley, Sam Parsons, Gabe Thompson.
This young group got much better during the Outdoor season and will have loads of optimism heading into the summer training block. If the Oles slip any, the Johnnies will be ready to pounce. The Johnnies return 10 of their top 11 and don't graduate any scorers. Their top 3 is as good as anyone in the MIAC, but they will need others to step up.
Calling it now, Carleton will out three in from of the Johnnies No. 1. I don’t think they will have a fourth in front of their fifth.
This young group got much better during the Outdoor season and will have loads of optimism heading into the summer training block. If the Oles slip any, the Johnnies will be ready to pounce. The Johnnies return 10 of their top 11 and don't graduate any scorers. Their top 3 is as good as anyone in the MIAC, but they will need others to step up.
Calling it now, Carleton will out three in from of the Johnnies No. 1. I don’t think they will have a fourth in front of their fifth.
I for one, would love to got to a party at the Dave’s house. Splitting a 30 rack of Hamm’s with him would be a life changing moment for me.
Two, Carls what are you outing the Johnnies for? I have so many questions about your phrasing.
Carleton is the final team in the "top tier." With the large dropoff to the next tier, I may rely on someone else to do those writeups. Will a brave Gustie or forthright Ole fill the void?
With the uber-talented seniors as low sticks, all who dealt with setbacks in training and injuries throughout the year, the Knights are sure to want to bring the MIAC trophy back to Northfield - on their side of the river. The Knights seemingly bring back all their points except Josh Meier (32nd). Like most Dave Ricks coached teams, the freshmen only began to emerge in the Outdoor season. Given the high school PR's of that group, we'll expect a huge jump next Fall.
Key Returners:
Gabe Nichols 7th - Runs 24:50/14:34. The top returning non-Ole, Nichols had a down 2024 season by his standards but was still an indivdual national qualifier and ran a minute 5K PR this Spring. Given his scintillating 5000m championship versus Chunko's mind games, we can expect something massive in the Fall. A MIAC individual title wouldn't surprise anyone.
Roy Llewelyn - 12th - Runs 25:12/14:35. Also a NCAA qualifier, Roy had a strong cross country season and opted for the longer distances after spending a trimester abroad. His first 10K was in the brutal heat and he opted to try to top some Oles rather than sitting back, which proved his downfall. Roy has finished 12th at the last two MIAC champs and will surely be eager to best his 8th place freshman performance in his final go-around.
Indy Lyness - 31st - Runs 25:22/15:27/3:50. The oft-injured Lyness has one of the best kicks in the MIAC, but is more middle-distance orientated. If he can close the gap to Roy/Gabe and stay healthy the Knights will have a fearsome scoring punch.
Like the senior trio, a rising sophomore trio figures to make a huge impact for Carleton. Ravi Achar (26:18/15:39), Pranav Khadkikar (26:41/15:46), & Travis Brown (26:38/15:36) all return from the scoring group and showed tremendous improvement at the 5K distance outdoors. Not to be missed is the message board folk here, Torte Torstenson or the new Chris Melville, who finished a mere 61st at the MIAC champs, but dropped close to a minute from his first steeple to finish 7th in 9:37. Torte will surely be a big factor in future Carleton teams.
Our next squad is Bethel, will the Royals follow an outstanding MIAC DMR victory to more upsets in 2025?
The Royals notably had PR's for their whole top seven at the famously slow Olaf course and have talented Freshman of the Year Hootie Hage to lead them. The hero of the MIAC Outdoor championship, Grant Graber is expected to graduate, so Hage will need another talented freshman to arrive in Arden Hills or for Victor Lelinga to showcase his mid D speed at the longer distances.
Key losses - Graber, Gabe Kuecker (68th), David Price (94th)
Key Returners -
Hootie Hage (22nd) ran sub 26 twice, with a top 50 finish at the North Region Championship. His 15:24 5K PR outdoor and 8:48 3K Indoor indicates the miler is also adapting to the longer distances.
Victor Lelinga (39th) - Runs 26:35/1:51. The 4 x 400 national champion seems to show up best in big meets with most PR's at all distances in MIAC championship meets including the 2024 XC champs.
Eli Berg - (55th) - Another mid-talent, Berg didn't race a distance over 800m during the track season. Runs 27:00.
Jonah Kalsnes (62nd) - Runs 27:14/15:53. Kalsnes hit sub 9:00 and sub 16 Indoor and focused on chasing a sub 10 steeple, doing so twice in the final weeks of the season. If the Junior shows similar improvement, he could help tighten the scoring spread.
Thomas Avra (63rd) - Runs 27:15/16:22. After running 33:50 in the Spring, we can expect some jumps for the rising sophomore similar to what we've seen from Kalsnes.
TJ Strubbe - 4:09/16:16 as a freshman after running 27:56 in his first campaign.
Concordia Moorhead -
While we all expect Track All-American Brady Goss to be a top five MIAC Cross Country scorer, that has yet to happen. Maybe this will be the year. He has shown he can beat Gabe, Roy, Turlington, and Iggy at any distance below a 5K. One would suspect that he'll make a big jump after a disappointing national meet and should be able to challenge for the title. Twin Tyler, enjoyed a tremendous sophomore track campaign, running times that also would project him to be a top 10 MIAC cross country runner. The Cobbers will need to see some development from non-scorers with the graduation of their 5/6 runners from the 2024 champs. Carter Ferber ran a nice Indoor PR in the 5000m that suggests some promise for the Fall. They will need another scorer to emerge and the return of fourth man Brady Andrews (27:26) who missed the 2025 track season.
Gustavus Adolphus -
The Gustie faithful will be thrilled to have a healthy Nick Brauer rejoin the squad after being injured last Fall. His return will make the graduation of all-MIAC runner Tyler Smith sting less. A tight scoring spread could move the team up several spots. The projected score seems to undervalue them.
Key Losses - Tyler Smith (8th) & Carson Roehl (71).
Returners -
Nick Brauer - Runs 25:41/3:50. The 2023 MIAC freshman of the year will look to top his 18th place freshman finish.
Will Janzen - Runs 26:05/15:26/9:46 SC. Janzen had a big outdoor season to follow his honorable mention MIAC XC season.
Evan Pouliot - Runs 26:47/15:31/32:50. One of the few racers to run a PR at the MIAC 10K, Pouliot continues to make big jumps in performance and will look to be a top 30 runner at the MIAC champs.
The Gusties will likely look for some of their vaunted recruiting class to add depth alongside returners Sackreiter, Landsem, Berge, & Cox.
Who is in the Gusties recruiting class? A elite freshman or two could really change the makeup of some of these teams. Specifically Mac and Carleton. Or will the Johnnies get some juco transfers on the distance side?
Who is in the Gusties recruiting class? A elite freshman or two could really change the makeup of some of these teams. Specifically Mac and Carleton. Or will the Johnnies get some juco transfers on the distance side?
Saw a 4:31 miler on their Instagram. The Oles and Johnnies never post their class.
Carleton definitely a team to watch. Can the Johnnies be good enough to get out this year? I think Oles will be fourth in the Region ahead of them. Too many graduate losses for the Oles and the returners other than Turkington and Ziggy really stalled this Spring.
The real question is when will Brady Goss decide he wants to win cross country? Once he does, it’s over. That is, if he stays D3. If I’m him I go get that bag from NDSU or the Gophers.
Is it already time for Bati and Goss join Turlington in the transfer portal to save the Gophers talk?
Bati obviously would give Aidan someone to do long runs with and a better training partner than some of the young guys who are still figuring out college running. I don't think Turlington helps them at all. Florsheim was a much better collegiate runner and he was barely top 35 in the Big Ten champs. I would think he could be a solid 6th-7th runner behind their redshirts and whatever other transfers they bring in.
I do think Goss could help them in track and theoretically could be a stronger cross runner. I wonder if he would leave his brother behind? A better question is whether Maddie and Goss go to home to NDSU as a package deal.