A bit warm overall, and humid at the start, so I’ll say about 2:27 if he’s a little cautious, closer to 2:30 with a hard fade if he tries to run it like it’s a perfect weather day.
A bit warm overall, and humid at the start, so I’ll say about 2:27 if he’s a little cautious, closer to 2:30 with a hard fade if he tries to run it like it’s a perfect weather day.
70% humidity at the start and ripping to 60% within an hour. That's fine, you wouldn't even notice it. Temps are starting at 12C rising to 16C when the sub-2:30 guys finish. Pretty much zero wind. You couldn't ask for much of a better day. He should run under 2:25 and I wouldn't be surprised by 2:20
The only thread that matters. Maybe 2:26. I dunno. Either way I would imagine he beats an insane amount of guys who run more mileage. A win for sub threshold and insane consistency.
A bit warm overall, and humid at the start, so I’ll say about 2:27 if he’s a little cautious, closer to 2:30 with a hard fade if he tries to run it like it’s a perfect weather day.
70% humidity at the start and ripping to 60% within an hour. That's fine, you wouldn't even notice it. Temps are starting at 12C rising to 16C when the sub-2:30 guys finish. Pretty much zero wind. You couldn't ask for much of a better day. He should run under 2:25 and I wouldn't be surprised by 2:20
I saw nearly 80% at the start, with a slightly longer time to dip to 60. OK, so maybe I’m wrong on the forecast. And I could be wrong in my overall assessment even if the forecast is near what I’d seen. But I’ve been in a race where lots of people went with the “you wouldn’t even notice it” (even though that was 80 to 70 an hour later and not 65 until 2 hours), and it’s not just that I felt it and ran better against the field because I took it into account and was able to run only a slightly positive split among a bunch of runners who blew up, but when I looked at the top 60-80 runners after the race (field size was under 5000), overall finish times and first-second splits were off considerably compared to each of the handful of good-weather times in several previous years. To me, that signaled a sneaky effect that one is unlikey to account for, and hence the kind more likely to take out some otherwise savvy runners.
You know what, I really want this guy to do well. Like really. Seems one of the good ones. It's unknown, but you have to consider he's done big work in the last month to add some M pace specific stuff and also his half on that course around 1:08 is worth way more on a fast, flat course. He broke the course record on a half guys have run 1:12 on and then gone on to 2:25-28 in London.
You know what, I really want this guy to do well. Like really. Seems one of the good ones. It's unknown, but you have to consider he's done big work in the last month to add some M pace specific stuff and also his half on that course around 1:08 is worth way more on a fast, flat course. He broke the course record on a half guys have run 1:12 on and then gone on to 2:25-28 in London.
+1 on this. So many guys have come and gone with training methods, performance, acting like A holes or full of themselves. Legit seems like the opposite. I really hope he beats some of the YouTubers! He's as smart as they come, I would imagine he has seen the weather and knows 1-2s per km needs to come off goal pace. Prediction above I think, others fall to bits and he does an even split , don't forget London is way faster 1st half.
70% humidity at the start and ripping to 60% within an hour. That's fine, you wouldn't even notice it. Temps are starting at 12C rising to 16C when the sub-2:30 guys finish. Pretty much zero wind. You couldn't ask for much of a better day. He should run under 2:25 and I wouldn't be surprised by 2:20
For me whether the sun is out makes a huge difference as to whether I blown up or not. Being a tall/muscular runner I'm probably impacted more than most of a similar level by heat buildup, but 14c and sunny is a different proposition to 14c and cloudy for me. Especially in spring after a UK winter/spring. Definitely less impact in Autumn post summer. Sirpoc is a proper typical runner build so hopefully he shouldn't be too effected.
70% humidity at the start and ripping to 60% within an hour. That's fine, you wouldn't even notice it. Temps are starting at 12C rising to 16C when the sub-2:30 guys finish. Pretty much zero wind. You couldn't ask for much of a better day. He should run under 2:25 and I wouldn't be surprised by 2:20
I saw nearly 80% at the start, with a slightly longer time to dip to 60. OK, so maybe I’m wrong on the forecast. And I could be wrong in my overall assessment even if the forecast is near what I’d seen. But I’ve been in a race where lots of people went with the “you wouldn’t even notice it” (even though that was 80 to 70 an hour later and not 65 until 2 hours), and it’s not just that I felt it and ran better against the field because I took it into account and was able to run only a slightly positive split among a bunch of runners who blew up, but when I looked at the top 60-80 runners after the race (field size was under 5000), overall finish times and first-second splits were off considerably compared to each of the handful of good-weather times in several previous years. To me, that signaled a sneaky effect that one is unlikey to account for, and hence the kind more likely to take out some otherwise savvy runners.
Yeah, I guess it can work out that way. But the guy lives and trains by the sea so should be used to a bit of humidity. The weather shouldn't be a factor for anyone finishing under 3 hours. It's the mass runners starting after 10am and perhaps finishing at 2pm that I'm worried about.
For UK weather, it's always best to go by the Met Office forecast. Other weather apps aren't as accurate, even the BBC app.