I think Wanyonyi wins the 1500m today

I think Yared will run in the front and push the pace a bit, at least for the last 1000. It’s not going to be a jog like yesterday’s 5000. I’m going to say they push it be below 3:35 and Hocker and Kerr will hold off Wanyonyi. Nguse will end up 4th because he did most of the work in a blanket finish. The other 800 guys will be dropped. Im counting on Kerr to be fit if he doesn’t scratch.

Of course they won’t underestimate him and it will come down to how hard the 1500m guys will want to push the pace to negate his kick.

Watch out for dark horse Neil Gourley. I don't think he will win, but I think he will give a few of the guys a run for their money as he has been the only one sharpening his racing over his past 1-2 months, with some solid second place finishes behind Jakob.

I think any number of dudes might take it out in ~59, and then Yared will hit the front not long after and wind it up in the last 800. Only Hocker will outkick him, with Wanyonyi 3rd and Kerr 4th, not in top form.

1. Hocker 3:34.5

2. Nuguse

3. Wanyonyi

4. Kerr

5. Gourley

6. Attaoui

7. Arop

8. Hoppel

Looks right though i might flip Gourley and Kerr. Wanyonyi and Yared maybe too.

Honestly I'm kind of surprised Kessler isn't doing this, at least as a challenger. Hoppel is, and both events seem right in his wheelhouse.

My prediction is that if it’s below 3:35 Hocker wins, otherwise it’s Wanyonyi.

Wanyonyi’s quite a wildcard though so I wouldn’t be surprised that he does much better or worse than expected.

Unrelated but Masalela i think a 1:42 man went under 3:31 today. Just dumped Sepeng as coach too.

1:42.82/3:30.71

worldathletics.org

Cape Milers Club/Endurocad Middle Distance Invitational Continental Tour Challenger | Results | World Athletics

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Wanyoni looks like a 5k runner the way he’s built. A 5’7 guy running 1:41 is pretty insane when you think about it. I think he can surprise a lot of people. The unknown of how he’s going to do against these guys makes this race interesting.

Wow. 11.7 seconds faster than he’d ever run as of 3 weeks ago (he ran a big 3:35 PB ~2 weeks ago).

It’s a really cool race. In a championship, the 1:41 guys probably couldn’t make the final so this race is very unique.

Yes, 1:41 guys could never make a 1500 final!

You don’t thinks it’s unknown as to if they can get through the heats and semi-finals? How would it affect how they run in the 800m?

GREAT prediction!!!

What did I say? They underestimated him. Jakob would have pushed with 800 to go and run 1:49-1:50 in a 3:31 race. Can’t leave it to a kick with a strength based 800m guy.

i knew when they went through 800 in 2:00 that Wanyonyi was gonna win lmao

Good call, when in doubt always pick the doping Kenyan.

Good call snowflakes!

Gotta love Wanyoni - he didn't even get a clean run at 200-300m to go because he was blocked by Kerr a little bit.

As I mentioned above, good to see Neil Gourley factoring into the finish as well, beating Kerr for 4th place.

but then it might open up for Nuguse and Hocker to steal the show. :p

One thing we have to give Jakob credit for is that he's the only one who would really push the pace. Without him, we wouldn't get so used to all those sub 3:30s and consider 3:35 a "slow race".

Anyway, great prediction. Wanyonyi is even stronger than I thought.