As someone in the gaming industry they know exactly how to price it. They know there will never be much of a market therefore they are just trying to make as much as possible.
track couldn’t really be less attractive for a Sportsbook.
There is one sportsbooks (DraftKings) that has posted markets for most events (not all, notably missing Men’s short distance), winner only right now.
Vig (juice/tax) on these numbers are massive so clearly they don’t know how to price these.
Kerley is a -250 favorite in the 100. Syd is -1200 in the hurdles (for now).
Gebrhiwet is odds-on to win the 5000 despite world 10,100 leader Bekele in the field (+250).
Curious if anyone is considering taking some shots at this.
Yeah, just calculated the vig and it's 26% on the men's 5000. But a ton were great lines earlier - I think Moraa was barely the odds-on favorite, and women's long distance changed a lot as well.
Up on Bovada as well now. Bekele at +400 for the 5000 could be good. Same with Thierry - he's at +2500 odds but he ran 7:25 in 2022 and 12:48 in 2024. I'd give him more than ~4% chance.
Women's long distance will be a crapshoot. Cranny was either favored or 2nd favored but now she's at +1000. Also don't want to deal with Ngetich and her timing of cycles (no way she's clean) - if she's in 28:46 / 1:03:04 shape or if she can barely run 30:03 / 14:48 road
I can never find track betting where I live for some reason (NYC), but I would’ve definitely bet against kerley with those odds, specially since he’s going through all that stuff with his arrest and so on.
This post was edited 32 seconds after it was posted.