Nike stock nosediving and no end in sight

Keep your eye on the price, and look to buy Nike around 11/15 this year. Nike is not going away and new mgt team has good plan to get growing again. This past qtr the new team took every hit and piece of bad news on purpose to get crap off books and have a low start point for their stock option plan.

Running is still the core driver at Nike. Are you delusional or just live in a running bubble? Nike makes way more money from their basketball and casual footwear line than they do their running line.

Nike's running clothing outside of the top of the line Aeroswift stuff is trash. They are selling "Dri-Fit" tee shirts for regular retail of like $45. The fabric hasn't changed in probably 20+ years. Why would anyone who doesn't care about the brand on the shirt spend $45 on that when hundreds of other companies sell that same fabric and shirt for $15 (You realllllly think that Starter or Russell Athletic brand shirt from Walmart is that much different? It's not.).

They do the same thing for their 1/4 zips, their shorts, etc.

I'm just not buying (instead selling) it. Nike made the "unloading the crap" plea on the earnings call before this most recent one. Foot traffic is down by 11%, downloads are down by 25%, and again, the product is cheaply made, and the shoes are uncomfortable and break down quickly. It doesn't matter the management team's plan unless they dramatically up their quality and quit trying gimmicks like their terrible new Air Pegasus (nobody will train in that shoe) and partnering with Skims (give me a break). Nike has become Kmart. It doesn't matter what old inventory management tries to clear off the books or whatever begging they are doing to try and get into speciality stores. The brand has zero credibility as it once had. The product itself is just crap.

Their quality has noticably decreased while prices increase. Makes no sense. At least the billionaire stakeholders are happy

They used to own basketball. Still the market leader l think but share is shrinking. 10 years ago, at least 30% were wearing Nike at my gym. Probably more like 5% now. Seems like most are working hard at finding esoteric brands or wearing Chuck Taylor's or retro something or another.

Buy high, sell low.

Nike owns Converse

Around 60% of Nike's revenue comes from outside of the US. Do you really think running is the core driver in the Asian market?

The 17% drop in sales from China had a big impact on their revenue stream. And there is a global growing trend of international consumers turning away from American brands. So Nike is in trouble long term. Their days of domination are over.

Nike needs to be careful that they don't become what MTV is to music

They should bring back their 2020 models. Pegasus turbo 2, pegasus 35 and vaporfly were really good. The miler tees were good too although they would chafe my nipples occasionally.

Covid year and chafed nipples sounds like a solid business plan.

Is there an athletics brand that is doing well? it just seems like a really crowded market. I guess maybe Hoka and Lululemon? I like Saucony but apparently they are doing bad... I think they come out with new models too fast so there are always older ones available for sale.

I think On is doing well, but that is probably more to do with it being a status symbol for walkers than the athletic part of the business necessarily. It feels like Nikes big problem is their apparel and/or athleisure offerings (including footwear). Who’s buying besides Sneakerheads and performance athletes?

footwearnews.com

On Says Its Cloudmonster and Cloudsurfer Sneaker Models Contributed ‘Significantly’ to Growth in Q4

Stephen Garner

On co-chief executive officer Martin Hoffmann said that the Cloudmonster and Cloudsurfer sneakers contributed significantly to sales growth in Q4.

Open link

Appropriate a running/racing shoe company is racing - to the bottom!

NKE down 30% in the last year and down over 60% from its 2021 high.

Get woke, go broke. The cancer is unrelenting.

its about time they felt the pain.

I wore pegasus from when I was 15 until last year (34). They got progressively worse since 2019 and I felt like they would barely last 200 miles before I could feel every stone underneath my foot on a run. The quality was terrible. I switched to Hoka Cliftons and never look back.

Nike is a condundrum with their running shoes and apparel. The clothes are definitely overpriced. I have found some items to be high quality and durable, others to be cheap crap. Same with the shoes. Zoom Fly 6s are fantastic. I think one of the best trainers out there. Air Structure 25 are descent, basic shoes. Alphaflys were top notch, but everyone caught up and they are being exceeded by Asics and Adidas racing shoes. Prices are all high no matter what they sell, unless you find the item on sale. Nike needs to do better and be more consistent.

Saucony's shoe models became convoluted and redundant. So we've got the:

endorphin elite: 'the premier racing shoe'

okay so what is the endorphin pro? The training version or cheaper racer? Oh no, that's the endorphin speed. Oh no wait it's the kinvara pro...no, the endorphin trainer! Four plated models all serving the same category. People are confused. And it sucks bc I agree they make some really good models here and there but they just get lost in the clutter and discontinue them

Seems like most athletic companies are down and its largely due to a crowded market. Its no longer seen as nike and adidas then everyone else - on, nb, etc are just as respected now.

There is no it product currently cornering the market the way jordans, vaporfly 1s, etc. did. There are only niche spaces where one company has an advantage over another - eg distance spikes or something.

Even Lululemon is feeling it. They are probably the most popular brand among women, but women are making their lulu gear last longer, not buying many new products because of the high cost. Some other brands are seen as just as good in that space now.

Each step these companies has taken has only kept them in line with their competitors be it lulu sponsoring rock n roll race series, tracksmith putting on their 5000 series, on getting big in the club scene and putting themselves out in the nil game, or nike and adidas continuing to be on the feet of the fastest.

Nike is launching a Jakob Ingebrigtsen line but I doubt that sells big outside of Europe. I doubt more than half the people in my running club even know he's challenging for El G's record this year.

The time is ripe for a celebrity athlete. Someone with the personality of Prefontaine who can get people to tune in to interviews and move product. A Michael Jordan of the 2020 track world. Someone who moves the conversation. I doubt this person comes along though. Maybe JI can be him if Nike can use him to market in NA. The issue is that track coverage is too fragmented and the coverage is often about moms and farmers. To see all the track you need peacock/nbc, espn, flotrack, runnerspace, proprietary services for a couple meets and often the announcer doesn't even have the level of awe for an athlete of Jakob's caliber that they should. Track is also too pc. No one is calling out World Athletics and Coe for their failure to combat doping.

Back to product though. Competitive running might be too small to move the needle no matter what is done. Running is big, but competitive running is like a peperoni on the pizza. To capture the market in a way that matters, you need to turn interest in running into interest in competitive running. Tracksmith is doing a good job of this in Boston, but that was already the market most interested in competitive running. Some other company could be the tracksmith of San Fran, then expand their metro capture from there. IE Vuori, which is known as the So Cal brand isn't even dominant on their home turf. Nike kind of has the NW locked down, but they don't inspire the brand loyalty tracksmith does because they don't have a grassroots program up there. The door is open for whoever is willing to take the chance on developing athletic celebrity through social marketing and combining it with grassroots marketing by putting in the work to create regional clubs.