I’m currently a senior in high school. Last track season I ran a 4:39 1600m and a 10:12 3200m. During XC i had a breakout season and ran 15:30 in the 5k at NXR. At the simplot games, I ran just barely sub 10 in the 3200m, but that was also at 4500 ft elevation. Is sub 9:30 realistic for me?
Try to run a 9:50 in your next effort, or a 4:30. You will likely need to achieve something in that ballpark before you will be ready for 9:30. Keep your eyes on the prize and you will likely surprise. You can do it.
I ran a 9:45 two mile in my junior year and 9:32 in my senior year. 9:30 is not out of the realm of possibility, but it probably will take a major improvement in training to get there from where you are.
I feel like a 15:30 5k (assuming course is on the faster side) is generally equivalent to a 9:15-20 3200.
You'd already be doing a 9:56 full 2mile split enroute to your 5k (assuming even splits), and a 10:00 2mile at 4,500 feet converts to 9:44. You'll definitely be a lot faster this spring when you're doing more speed and are way sharper.
In my head in your first 3200m you should go for as close to 9:30 as possible, set yourself up for a significant PR but don't bite off too much. But I honestly believe if you've ran a 15:30 5k you're capable of a 9:20 sooner or later. I wouldn't focus on your track times from junior year, not reflective of where you are now
Just run your 3200m like you always do. When your watch says 9:29, press STOP
(but don't tell anyone else) and voila - you have a new PR!