Official 2025 Tokyo Marathon Live Discussion Thread

I think JC wins this one, as something tells me he learned an extraordinary amount as a virgin, and now he will put it to good use. Plus his fellow Ugandan is fueling himself with some really nutritious food, so it may be they have a similar diet.

Should be a good one and looking forward to Nagoya next weekend.

Let’s go Jake

what percentage chance we giving Kebede of the win?

Jake Barraclough 2:11 inbound

So how do we actually watch it? Which country has the world athletic stream?

2:10:43

Rojo or someone - can you directly link the Brett Larner TV stream? His blog (linked above) mention Nippon TV, but then on the TV coverage it does not list them. very frustrating. any help appreciated. thanks!

Look at the Paces that will be attempted WOW

Women 2:12 for top group 2:20 for 4th group.

Men 2:00 -2:01 for Top Group and 2:05 for 4th group

INSANE, but I love it.

Weather looks good. A few degrees above perfect (56-62F) but dew point only 39 and wind nonexistent.

I’m predicting Cheptegei takes a step in the right direction: still runs a positive split and a rough last few miles, but survives much better than in his debut. 61-low through the half, 2:04-mid/4th place finish. In 2026, maybe he’s capable of handling the full distance and running 2:01-2:03 to win a major.

Benson Kipruto is the best pick to win today, but with Kipchoge over the hill and Kiptum dead, there are no individuals I’d take over the field in a marathon major.

Temps should be upper 50's to start (local time of 9:10am) and getting to 60 by the finish for the leaders. Not terrible, not ideal.

Pacers below:

It's aggressive however still looks slower than last year in Tokyo when the leaders split around 60:20. I do wonder if the first group men's pacers can execute that pace for that long though. They are good athletes but Shadrack Kimining (59:27/2:08:29) and Ismael Kiprono (60:46) are not guys I'd automatically feel confident in running 2:01 pace for 30k.

Do you guys think Cheptegei goes with the lead group? I know he's the biggest name in the field and perhaps like Bekele or Kipchoge would be expected to go for the win from the gun no matter what but I'm actually thinking he goes with the 2nd group here. He's been downplaying his aspirations and in the press conference essentially said if he runs 2:04 he'd be happy. Maybe I'm misinterpreting it but it made me think he'll run more conservatively

Good question Will. I vaguely remember something about Jakob not planning on going with the lead pack in his foray into the half marathon, but then he did. So hard to say with JC. I could see him going with the 2nd group and still having the intent to win, but we shall see.

Good points, I kind of think his best chance to win or podium will be running in the 2nd group and moving through the field after 30k. I'm very curious how many will go with the first group, its a sizable gamble even for the very best especially considering how fast the 2nd group is still going

Going to make a bold prediction: first Japanese sub 2:04