NY Times: Scientists publish study saying they think Faith Kipyegon could feasible go sub-4 in the mile

Of course is possible with the Kenyan doping labs behind her. Anyone celebrating anything coming out of Kenya is a clown.

No way.

The current women's world record in the following events are:

1000m: 2:28.98 (worth 1252 points)

1500m: 3:49.04 (worth 1296 points)

Mile: 4:07.64 (worth 1287 points)

If Faith were to run a 3:59.37 mile, her splits would average out to:

1000m: 2:28.74 (worth 1255 points)

1500m: 3:43.11 (worth 1346 points)

Mile: 3:59.37 (worth 1352 points)

Make your own conclusions...As great as Faith is, I don't think she can pull off three new world records in one race.

In 1952, the men's world record in the 1000m was 2:21.2, and in the 1500m 3:43.0, so that showed that the four minute barrier (mile WR at the time 4:01.4) was indeed achievable at the time, albeit difficult.

If it's even possible, I think we're at least a generation away from a women's sub four. First, we need to see improvements to the 1000m and 1500m records (possibly even the long standing 800m record of 1:53.28), along with the mile record itself. 4:07.64 is a long, long way from 3:59.xx.

Yes, under the right conditions….Faith can do it…..

RIP David Torrence

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=1134264

Finding that many seconds is frankly insane. Kipchoge found 90 in an event 26 times longer and where pacing to the finish and blocking the wind is a bigger issue (Faithd records were set in big stadiums). I think Kipyegon could find maybe 2-3 seconds in a mixed race. Sub-4 only if it’s downhill or they make some crazy new shoe/track (BU/Dragonfly 2 doesn’t qualify)

Yeah well Faith is already moving past her prime as a middle distance runner. She is 31 years old and she has no chance to ever run sub 4 for the mile. It is ridiculous to even discuss it. Faith would have to be capable of breaking the 800m world record, before she could even begin contemplating a sub 4 mile.

David has a 1600 pr of 4:04….and then he ran 3:46 down Bancroft!! Easy money for Faith to break 4😉😉

If you read the article, which everyone here clearly did not, you will find that the study claims that Kipyegon would need pacers to accompany her the entire way, in an exhibition-style event, which would not be eligible for record purposes. So, a wavelight + tight phalanx of pacers (probably male) running exactly 59.6 per 400m for 1550m, who alternate out at 800m, on a dead-calm evening in an enclosed stadium in perfect conditions. She might be able to do it...but would she even want to?

I mean would Kipchoge want to be the first guy to break 2 in an exhibition marathon? Even if Kiplimo broke 2 tomorrow, he wouldn't get nearly the same hype from the average person as Kipchoge did a few years ago. We may care about official world records being run without pacers the whole way, but I don't think the average person really registers a difference between 800-1k with a single pacer, and 1550m with a couple pacers (or male pacers).

Normally if I watch a race with a friend, they're like "Why the heck is the person in the lead just stepping off the track? I was rooting for them! What you do mean they're a pacer? So they just run in the lead for a while and step off? Why do they even need to do that?" Honestly, to the average joe, having pacers the entire way, and marketing it as a science experiment, probably makes more sense than having pacers drop out 60% of the way through the race.

If you are asking as a legit question, the answer is no.

Faith is already running flat out, miles ahead of most of her competition, and miles ahead of her former self. She is not going to magically become a different person.

And no, pacers aren't enough to help her to do it. Neither are wavelights.

p.s. I would like do see if a woman could run 1200m in 2:59. That would be a good start.

Men's Record as of July 16, 1915 - 4:12.6
Men's record as of July 15, 1933 - 4:07.6
First sub-4 - May 6, 1954 - 3:59.4

Women's record as of August 14, 1996 - 4:12.56
Current Women's record - 4:07.64 (July 21, 2023)

It took 18 years for the men's record to drop from 4:12 to 4:07, and 21 years for the men's record to drop from 4:07 to sub-4.

It took 27 years for the women's record to drop from 4:12 to 4:07.

Sub-4 is not happening any time soon. I think I might see it in my lifetime (I'm 51).

It would have gone down sometime in the mid 1940s if ww2 never happened

No amount of pacers give a 7 second pb, dont embarrass yourself

So by the same kind of reasoning Ingebrigtsen should be capable of beating 3:20 for the 1500 or running 3:36 for the mile. (He also isn't 31.) What an informed article. Still - we never know what is possible with Kenyan doping now.

I cannot imagine Faith or any current lady running much quicker than 4:07 on a track in any circumstance. She'd need a downhill course.

I don't think Faith will be the one to do it, but I bet we'll see it in my lifetime. I don't think a 28:54 10k, 1:02 half, or 2:09 marathon are that far away from 3:59 mile territory. Of course, those events are a little more "trainable" so the mile is going to take longer to get to that level, but it will get there. I think in the right race Faith can probably run 3:47 right now, and there are a host of 3:50-3:54 women lining up behind her to be the next one under 3:50. Any 3:47 male runner is going to start thinking about sub-4:00, even if it's a pipe dream.

I agree with the other poster that the biggest thing we need to see is improvements to other middle distance records. While the long distance times are starting to get in the ballpark of what a sub-4:00 miler would need, the 800/1000/1500 records are nowhere near. If Faith can drop the 1500 record to 3:47, and someone like Keely can drop the 800 record to 1:52, then I think we're starting to get in the ballpark. Another two generations and we might see a woman capable of running 3:43, and another capable of 1:51, at which point sub-4:00 becomes a possibility.

I'll throw out that by 2055, we'll see a woman go under 4:00.

Prime Semenya probably could have run 4:02 with actual work for it (and male pacing, superspikes, etc). I always got the sense that she sandbagged every race to barely win. Of course there's the issue...

You are always thinking of Jakob. So cute ❤

I think Mu was the closest thing to 1:51 in this generation; and I’m not even sure I’d use her result as an indicator of progressing towards the sub 4 min barrier. I think athletes who consistently run longer distances such as Georgia Bell or Diribe would give me more hope of the possibility if they sniffed 1:51 range - and neither of them are close as it stands. I do hope all of us posting get to witness it.

Here's the article, no paywall (LRC note. This isn't the article. It's th estudy that the NY Times article is based on. We have provided a non-paywall link up in post #1).

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.241564