I ran some calculations with GPT, and it looks like he would need to maintain a 54.3-second per lap pace for the final 509 meters to break the outdoor record as well. (3.43.13)
One of the Norwegian commentators mentioned during his European XC race that rumors suggest he's been delivering some incredible performances in training.
A 54.3-second lap pace for the final stretch might typically be too fast for Jakob, but if the 2025 version of him is on a whole new level—who knows?
I ran some calculations with GPT, and it looks like he would need to maintain a 54.3-second per lap pace for the final 509 meters to break the outdoor record as well. (3.43.13)
One of the Norwegian commentators mentioned during his European XC race that rumors suggest he's been delivering some incredible performances in training.
A 54.3-second lap pace for the final stretch might typically be too fast for Jakob, but if the 2025 version of him is on a whole new level—who knows?
No way he runs 3:43, he isn’t actually peaking for this race. Obviously if he has found a new level like Hocker maybe he can, but then that would imply that fully peaked he can run like 3:41 which I doubt.
I have no doubt that my king Jakob Ingebrigtsen will run sub 3:45 tomorrow.
That pace was pretty predictable because it equates to exactly 28.0 seconds per 200m and as Lievin uses wavelight I would have guessed it was either that or 28.5 per 200m. Assuming Jakob is right on him (in the context of a pacer) he would be 2.34.5 at 1100 so needs 72.0 for the final 509m to break the record - 56.6 pace. Clearly that's doable.
To run under 3.45 off that pace would be extremely impressive, especially at this time of the year and in his first race. The other thing of interest will be if Sisk can get to that 1100m split in a pacemaker role which sometimes is not as easy as a race.
As always with Jakob, hard to imagine he will disappoint - especially with respect to a new WR at the very least.
I have no doubt that my king Jakob Ingebrigtsen will run sub 3:45 tomorrow.
That pace was pretty predictable because it equates to exactly 28.0 seconds per 200m and as Lievin uses wavelight I would have guessed it was either that or 28.5 per 200m. Assuming Jakob is right on him (in the context of a pacer) he would be 2.34.5 at 1100 so needs 72.0 for the final 509m to break the record - 56.6 pace. Clearly that's doable.
To run under 3.45 off that pace would be extremely impressive, especially at this time of the year and in his first race. The other thing of interest will be if Sisk can get to that 1100m split in a pacemaker role which sometimes is not as easy as a race.
As always with Jakob, hard to imagine he will disappoint - especially with respect to a new WR at the very least.
Sisk got to 1100m last year in 2:33, it’s possible that he can do it. I think they are aiming for a negative split with this one. If he feels ok, he can slow down a little and still run 3:46. If he feels very good 3:44 high or 3:45 may be on the table…
3 pacers seems like a lot for an indoor race, does it not? With the tight turns and how spread out they’ll be to give each other adequate space from the first pacer to Jakob… it seems like overkill.
Also, is that 1000m split of 2:23.5 a typo? 2:06.5 from 900m to 2:23.5 at 1000m equates to a 17 sec 100m split. Then moving through 1100m at 2:34 would warrant a 10.5 second 100m split. Something seems off.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Reason provided:
17 second split, not 16
3 pacers seems like a lot for an indoor race, does it not? With the tight turns and how spread out they’ll be to give each other adequate space from the first pacer to Jakob… it seems like overkill.
Also, is that 1000m split of 2:23.5 a typo? 2:06.5 from 900m to 2:23.5 at 1000m equates to a 17 sec 100m split. Then moving through 1100m at 2:34 would warrant a 10.5 second 100m split. Something seems off.
I think the guy with a 2:23.5 on the start list is a pacer for the french national record. The split from 2:06.5 to 2:34 makes more sense.
3 pacers seems like a lot for an indoor race, does it not? With the tight turns and how spread out they’ll be to give each other adequate space from the first pacer to Jakob… it seems like overkill.
Also, is that 1000m split of 2:23.5 a typo? 2:06.5 from 900m to 2:23.5 at 1000m equates to a 17 sec 100m split. Then moving through 1100m at 2:34 would warrant a 10.5 second 100m split. Something seems off.
I think I know the answer to this.
I think he is a pacer but they are breaking this up in two groups - Jakob is going to have Sasinek and Sisk take him through to 1100m at what is essentially 2.20/km pace. Maybe Giles goes on the back of that? Not sure if Prakel is in shape to or anyone else.
Fris is going to be the pacer of the "second group" or "GR2" as is labelled on the starting list and he is going to take that through to 1000m in 2.23.5 which is just under 3.51 pace which I guess is right for the rest of the field to break 3.50. I don't think that has anything to do with the French NR because of course Habz ran 3.47.5 at Millrose and I think you would need a little faster to be targeting that (plus there isn't another French guy even in the race).
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
I have no doubt that my king Jakob Ingebrigtsen will run sub 3:45 tomorrow.
I copy what I wrote on another thread two days ago:
"I say 3:44.5 AT LEAST if he has been healthy this year and if the pacing is good (minimum to 1100m). 28 sec per lap for the first 6 laps (so 2:48 for the first 1200m) and 55 low pace for the last 409.34 m. Perhaps even faster. He will break his 1500m record WR en route AT LEAST going 3:29 mid."
As Salvitore already has written it seems that the pacemakers are set to exactly 28 per 200m pace. So I stick to my prediction.
3 pacers seems like a lot for an indoor race, does it not? With the tight turns and how spread out they’ll be to give each other adequate space from the first pacer to Jakob… it seems like overkill.
Also, is that 1000m split of 2:23.5 a typo? 2:06.5 from 900m to 2:23.5 at 1000m equates to a 17 sec 100m split. Then moving through 1100m at 2:34 would warrant a 10.5 second 100m split. Something seems off.
If there are 3 pacers it's safe to say Jakob is out for the WR.
A sub-3:45 mile is always impressive, whether indoors or outdoors. But he's gone for indoor 1500 records before and come up short so let's not get ahead of ourselves
I have no doubt that my king Jakob Ingebrigtsen will run sub 3:45 tomorrow.
I copy what I wrote on another thread two days ago:
"I say 3:44.5 AT LEAST if he has been healthy this year and if the pacing is good (minimum to 1100m). 28 sec per lap for the first 6 laps (so 2:48 for the first 1200m) and 55 low pace for the last 409.34 m. Perhaps even faster. He will break his 1500m record WR en route AT LEAST going 3:29 mid."
As Salvitore already has written it seems that the pacemakers are set to exactly 28 per 200m pace. So I stick to my prediction.
It would be something truly special were he to go sub 3:45.
Suddenly the high 3:46's by Yared and Hobbs wouldn't seem so special.
Like all the top milers (maybe not Kerr -- but maybe) but Jakob is the man and I root for him in every race he is in.
A sub-3:45 mile is always impressive, whether indoors or outdoors. But he's gone for indoor 1500 records before and come up short so let's not get ahead of ourselves
AS far as I know, he went for it once -- and got it