Can I break a 3 hour marathon next weekend?

No.

When I say close to all out, I meant pretty much racing to maintain 6:35 through the hills. I was holding back the first 7. But yeah, when I was running 2:55 regularly and 2:53PR, I was about 1:21-1:22 in the half. I think I could have run 1:26 flat all out today, probably 1:25 high.

I ran more miles in this buildup (45-50mpw) than my peak times as a younger man, but the last 2 weeks have been spotty.

I’m confident at 3:04:59, but anything faster will be really rough. I’m hoping new VF3s really give an extra edge.

It's possible, I was in a similar position a few months ago and did it. But I ran 6 miles at threshold the week before and was in 1:21/1:22 shape. If you went 10 miles fairly hard the week before and are in 1:25/1:26 shape, I don't know. I wouldn't recommend combining caffeine and Tylenol as it is hard on the body but it would help a good bit. I've heard mixed things on this with some saying it can damage your liver but others saying it is probably fine as long as you limit it to one regular strength Tylenol and stay hydrated. But that would probably help you improve about as much as the super shoes. In my marathon I didn't take Tylenol and saved the caffeine for the last 6-7 miles (caffeine gum). Also cut mileage to no more than 15-20 miles to ensure maximal recovery. You also might want to go closer to 3:05 pace at least the first half and if you feel you can do it pick it up in the second half, then get your caffeine in the last 10k and go all out till the end. But none of that will matter if you don't believe you can do it. Most importantly you just have to believe you can do it and make yourself do it no matter what and it will happen. Good luck 👍

Oh yeah, VF3 are awesomenfor marathon distance. I tried AF3 and VF3 in marathons at VF3 rocked 🤘

It seems like you have the fitness give or take but 60 and humid is not great marathoning weather.. I’d recon you’d be closer to 3:05 in that

Yes.

The marathon is strange to me. I see a lot of people who are quite slow in the shorter distances who run the marathon well. The most extreme was someone with a 5k of 18:4x and a marathon of 2:45.

I had one crack at the marathon and ran 2:59 even though my 5k and 10k were 17 and 36 minutes...

Give me a break. 6:03 pace for a 5K and 6:17 for a marathon? Absolutely not.

Well, Sedona is a bit hilly and the Mesa marathon is an 1100 foot net downhill, so I'd say yes. You have a very good chance at going sub 3 next weekend.

I live in FL, and the “hilly” portion of the half marathon is like 1/2 mile elevation gain of 75ft, but some steep grade portions and had to go out and back over those hills in 2 of those last 3 miles. It’s nothing major, but it’s more hills than I’m used to.

The marathon is going to be really flat except out and back over a few 25ft bridges. I ran it 2 years ago in 3:09 and I’m definitely in better shape right now.

I agree 62-65 and 90+% humidity is not ideal, but it’s fine. I’d feel a lot better if it was 55 and dry like it was a couple weeks ago here, but that doesn’t seem to be in the forecast.

My best races including my PR have been negative splits, so I think I’ll go out at 7-7:05 pace and see how I feel after the first 10K.

Be sure to update us. I don't think sub 3 is possible but of course I could be wrong.

Do you have unusual tolerance for heat and humidity? My experience is that low 60s and humid is pretty tough for a half but that those conditions have an even greater effect by the time you’re late in a marathon, even if that’s still quite a bit away from the brutal feeling of 70s and humid.

I know people who have had decent races after putting in that kind of effort one week out, but not a “stretch goal”/PR-type performance under less than ideal conditions.

Maybe up to 25% you get the sub-3, about 25% you’re still around there to 3:05 or so, and 50% that you run around 3:10 if you go after the sub-3.

Not really, I train in FL so low 60s feels way better than high 80s and humid like most of the summer. I have crashed and burned on mid 70s, full sun, low humidity marathon 1:28/1:44 for 3:12 back when I was faster.

The good news is that the race starts at 6am, so the sun will not be a factor until the last 10K or so.

Your prediction odds seem fair. I had no intention of going for sub 3 before yesterday. I still think I’ll go for 3:04:59 unless I feel really good after 1 hour. I have another shot at sub 3 in Chicago this fall, but it’s hard to train through the summer here.

I’ll report back in a week.

I might believe it. My PRs were 18:10 for 5K and 2:43 for the marathon (honest course--not downhill). Not quite that extreme, but close.

El Guerrouj only ran a 36 minute 10k, at age 33. He wasn't really training but still only ran that despite 3:26 and 12:50

Sub-3:00 is a 6:52 pace.

Was really hoping this was a post by Rojo when I read the title.

Rojo couldn't break 5 hours even if he tried hard.

I was referring to the claim some dude can only run 6:03 pace for a 5k but somehow they managed to only slow down 14 seconds per mile running over 8 and a half times further.

Daniel's formula has an 18:45 5k equivalent to 2:59:34(6:51 pace). His formula notoriously overestimates marathon fitness, so the claim is even more ridiculous.

For perspective, I've been in 2:45 shape. My harder workouts in those blocks were 3 x 5k at 6:05 pace and 12 miles continuously at 6:09 pace. There's no way a dude would have to all out race me for just one of 3 intervals, and then keep up with me at a *slighlty* slower pace for 26.2.

At that ability level the delta between 5k and marathon is about 50 seconds. People who are more gifted for longer distances might be able to bring that down to a 40 second gap. Even that's a bit of a stretch.

A 2:45er comically bad at the 5k should be able to run 17:40 on a bad day. I personally ran a 5k at 17:40 paced at the end of a half marathon where the first 10 miles were 6:09 pace(this was a compromise between me and my coach who didn't want me to race, so I raced the last 5k).

I hope Rojo does it now that he's down to almost 160lbs. I'm almost 15lbs lighter than him, and we are about the same height.