Parker Valby vs Hobbs Kessler: who has more potential?

Hobbs.

Kessler runs an event where Americans can actually be competitive. Valby has the looks and popularity. I'll go with this: Kessler has better running career potential, Valby has better earnings potential.

Kessler, and it's not close. If Valby ever finishes top-8 in an Olympic or Worlds final, she will have had a good career. Kessler can legitimately compete for the podium.

Speed kills.

I think the knee-jerk reaction is to say Hobbs. If he puts together the right race I think he can be a real threat over 800 or 1500(more likely)

On the other hand I think Hobbs is limited to those two events. I see him more like a Centro who will realistically never venture up distances, just refine his existing skillset.
Most people will say Parker will never medal in a WC or OLY, but she just made it very far through the OLY 10,000m final with the leaders, as a 22yo -> now give her 4 or 8years to get stronger, more mileage and develop more of a kick, and you can't say it's impossible, also she has the benefit of being able to move up to the HM & Marathon later in her career, if she can handle the mileage

So when we discuss potential, I'm not advocating that Parker is a clear favourite to beat Hobbs, or is going to medal / win a WMM, but I think she's in a better position here than some may initially presume - her future is very bright, while Hobbs is in events that are always, always stuffed full of talent, whether domestically or internationally, and every single year he'll be having to fend off the new collegiate kids

Centro never venture up?

Most 5k/10k runners only wish they were fast enough to be medal contending 800/1500 runners.

It's even more meaningful to go down in history as a great miler than a 5k/10k runner.

Bannister, Snell, Ryun, Walker, Bayi, Kerr, Coe, Ovett, Willis all fine without moving up. Great milers.

Centro ran 13:xx for 5000, won an epic national hs 2 mile, and ran xc for the Ducks. He showed he has a bit of distance runner in him.

Hobbs? I was surprised how good he was at 800 last year. No real reason to try it now or soon, but I wouldn't be shocked if he also at some point ran a useful 5000. Just not necessary.

I don't agree that it's more meaningful be a great miler than a great 5k/10k runner. When we discus the greatest distance runners in history on this board, we often talk about great 5k/10k runners like Geb and Bekele who had range extending to the marathon.

Bayi ran the steeple (2nd) at the 1980 Olympics, Walker ran the 5000 at the 1984 Olympics, Ovett ran the 5000 at the 1986 Commonwealths.

Valby will be immensely more popular. She will earn much more than him.

I think the time / place is misleading. Chebet and the other medalists ran the last 1200 in about 3:19. Valby was 3:30 - just couldn't hang at all. And the real acceleration began at somewhere from 800 to 400 to go - can you ever see Valby closing a 10k in 2:07 for the last 800?

Actually, scratch what I said. Just rewatched. Chebet ran the last 400 in about 59. Valby was 69.

How is this even a question? Hobbs Kessler has WAY more potential to run faster than Parker Valby. Probably in just about every event. You could even include field events - there's no way Parker has as much potential as Hobbs.

Kessler by far and it isn't even close.

She won't earn more on the track. If she earns more it would have to be via influencing. I like Valby as an athlete but TBH, she is a bit too awkward to make a lot of money by brining an influencer. I just don't see it.

You must not be a straight man if you don't seem it. She is already earning more than him.

Good post, I agree. I think Hobbs is far more likely to medal; he was 5th as a 21 year old in a 3:29pb and ran 1:43 3x last year. I think you're probably right that he'll be like Centro and never really go up in distance, maybe except the 3k at world indoors (only 2 spots on the 1500m team, it'll be very easy to miss it). He's already just so much closer to the medals than Valby, and he's got that new 1:43 speed (rarer these days) and Hoppel as a training partner.

Definitely can't say it's impossible for Valby to medal, especially since she's had, what, 2 or 3 years of healthy training? At as sea level as sea level gets in Florida. I wish she'd have moved to altitude full time, but even just getting some altitude camps in will surely boost her. She got absolutely DUSTED in the Olympics, but it was her first global championship and after a super long season, and she still ran very well. There's no way to know how much room she has left to improve, but I'll say she looks a whole lot better coming out of college than Monson did, and Monson managed sub 14:20 and 5th at WCs (and she still has plenty of time to get better).

I think the better comparison is Nico Young and Valby, which I know has been posed here before. Both 10k Olympians as seniors in college, both held on until like 800 to go, both broke the last big time barriers in NCAA 5k/10k (13/27 and 15/31). I like Nico's chances better there too, just because he has that 1:47/3:34 speed. We just haven't seen enough of Valby in shorter distances or sprint finishes to know how good her kick is, although in the OTs we found out she at least has one to go toe-to-toe with the best in the US.

She could be, but don't forget that Kessler got his contract out of HS after running 3:34. He got a huge contract for that.

Ohhhhhh, you got me, Sparky! 🙄 I was in the closet but now that you’ve busted me I’ll need to come out.

Kessler is a needy guy. He won't sell any product. Valby is female and very attractive. She is making way more than him. The OP asked about success. He didn't ask who would place higher.