Intentionally antagonistic question but I'll bite. Christian could probably smoke that speedboat time now. He also came up to the 50k from being a great college runner so not a great comparison all around.
His ceiling is incredibly high though. I think he has the choice between being one of the best trail runners in the world or gunning for a spot on an Olympic team.
No! NO!!! This offends my deeply held belief that ultra runners are all slow no talents that are glorified power walkers! My 15:52 Turkey Trot from 2013 is superior to any and all ultra performances! Ultras aren’t certified! You can take short cuts on trails! They don’t drug test!
He consistently finishes 5minutes or more behind the winners in the Golden Trail Series in races that are won in 1h50. He also ran 2h37 in Sierre Zinal, 12 minutes behind Kilian Jornet.
He consistently finishes 5minutes or more behind the winners in the Golden Trail Series in races that are won in 1h50. He also ran 2h37 in Sierre Zinal, 12 minutes behind Kilian Jornet.
As someone who as also has won Speedgoat several times in the low 5hr range, as well as run about 2:38 Sierre-Zinal.... I only ran 2:16:52 in the marathon back in the day (of course before supershoes).
His 2:10 is very impressive....especially given the conditions yesterday (wind on the full course was certainly not ideal in the 2nd half) and the fact that I don't think Houston runs nearly as fast as a course like Chicago or CIM etc.
Ironically back in the day when I first won Speedgoat, a 2:14 marathoner (Max King) actually finished 3rd. Anton probably could've run in the high 2:25-2:29s if he had really focused on the marathon and had had supershoes. We actually ran faster than Kilian's time the year after he "cut the course."
Jim W. is of course also a 2:14 marathoner and I'm sure guys like Hayden Hawks could probably run at least around that if he focused on the road.
Then you have guys like David Sinclair that had already run 2:16 in the marathon (but honestly could probably run a few minutes faster nowadays) who has the CR at the modern Speedgoat course.
But hey, some ultra-trail runners still like to tell me that "road marathon times don't correlate to ultra running or mountain running performances". Keep in mind Speedgoat certainly is a "mountain race" and has some technical trail bits.
Of course just because "a=c" doesn't mean "b=c" (regards to comparing relative performances between mountain-ultra and ultra races and different runners with their relative road times/track times). But I still will argue that there is always a very strong correlation. The best metric shown is usually velocity at Vo2max (or probably velocity at the Threshold LT/AT) as it takes Running Economy into account....which is the name of the game! ("Variable" running economy for the mountain races as I like to call it).
He consistently finishes 5minutes or more behind the winners in the Golden Trail Series in races that are won in 1h50. He also ran 2h37 in Sierre Zinal, 12 minutes behind Kilian Jornet.
He's done quite well so far in the shorter races with WMRA (which have drug testing btw), but not quite gotten all the puzzle pieces together in some of the longer races (SZ is the deepest race in short trail atm). He finally seems to have figured that out and it will be exciting to see how this upcoming season plays out in the mountains (or maybe more roads as well).
He consistently finishes 5minutes or more behind the winners in the Golden Trail Series in races that are won in 1h50. He also ran 2h37 in Sierre Zinal, 12 minutes behind Kilian Jornet.
As someone who as also has won Speedgoat several times in the low 5hr range, as well as run about 2:38 Sierre-Zinal.... I only ran 2:16:52 in the marathon back in the day (of course before supershoes).
His 2:10 is very impressive....especially given the conditions yesterday (wind on the full course was certainly not ideal in the 2nd half) and the fact that I don't think Houston runs nearly as fast as a course like Chicago or CIM etc.
Ironically back in the day when I first won Speedgoat, a 2:14 marathoner (Max King) actually finished 3rd. Anton probably could've run in the high 2:25-2:29s if he had really focused on the marathon and had had supershoes. We actually ran faster than Kilian's time the year after he "cut the course."
Jim W. is of course also a 2:14 marathoner and I'm sure guys like Hayden Hawks could probably run at least around that if he focused on the road.
Then you have guys like David Sinclair that had already run 2:16 in the marathon (but honestly could probably run a few minutes faster nowadays) who has the CR at the modern Speedgoat course.
But hey, some ultra-trail runners still like to tell me that "road marathon times don't correlate to ultra running or mountain running performances". Keep in mind Speedgoat certainly is a "mountain race" and has some technical trail bits.
Of course just because "a=c" doesn't mean "b=c" (regards to comparing relative performances between mountain-ultra and ultra races and different runners with their relative road times/track times). But I still will argue that there is always a very strong correlation. The best metric shown is usually velocity at Vo2max (or probably velocity at the Threshold LT/AT) as it takes Running Economy into account....which is the name of the game! ("Variable" running economy for the mountain races as I like to call it).
Only for road runners successful in ultras or in trail ultras, there is some correlation. Just a random 2:10 Marathoner will not do much at the Speedgoat or at a 100 miler.
Running economy does only so much. The longer the race nutrition and taking care of your body is way more important. Something Anton never quite managed.
He’s a great runner, my point is that it takes more like 2:05 talent to win Sierre Zinal or a Golden Trail race. I have actually seen his Golden Trail Series races and he doesn’t make any apparent mistakes, just not strong enough to follow the leaders. Btw Golden Trail also has drug testing.
He’s a great runner, my point is that it takes more like 2:05 talent to win Sierre Zinal or a Golden Trail race. I have actually seen his Golden Trail Series races and he doesn’t make any apparent mistakes, just not strong enough to follow the leaders. Btw Golden Trail also has drug testing.
I think my only disagreement is with your use of the word "more". And I say this as a trail guy.It feels like drawing a 10k connection to a marathon. Heavily correlated but also not entirely predictive.
If you're basically saying the minimum requirement is to be 2:05 I disagree.
Depends on how you want to frame highly correlated. You are saying Anton a 2:29ish guy can beat a 2:10 guy over a mountain 50k distance. Most people would not consider that highly correlated.
Usually the argument on LRC is that all sub 2:04 marathoners would smoke all ultra runners. Clearly that is not the case if a 2:20 guy that is very good at trails could still beat them. Or in the case of Walmsley a 2:14 guy.
Depends on how you want to frame highly correlated. You are saying Anton a 2:29ish guy can beat a 2:10 guy over a mountain 50k distance. Most people would not consider that highly correlated.
Usually the argument on LRC is that all sub 2:04 marathoners would smoke all ultra runners. Clearly that is not the case if a 2:20 guy that is very good at trails could still beat them. Or in the case of Walmsley a 2:14 guy.
I actually think that's exactly my point. A good marathon would graph pretty evenly for finish on average but that is high variation.
Just check the US 10k trail results. Everyone in the top 8 was pretty good but Reid Buchanan was 7th overall behind a bunch of guys who couldn't sniff 2:11 (aside from Christian).
Depends on how you want to frame highly correlated. You are saying Anton a 2:29ish guy can beat a 2:10 guy over a mountain 50k distance. Most people would not consider that highly correlated.
Usually the argument on LRC is that all sub 2:04 marathoners would smoke all ultra runners. Clearly that is not the case if a 2:20 guy that is very good at trails could still beat them. Or in the case of Walmsley a 2:14 guy.
"Highly correlated" with a bigger sample size.
Just like "velocity at Vo2max" has a very high correlation of success in a fairly extreme mountain ultra like UTMB. Keep in mind that takes Running Economy into account (and not just raw Vo2max numbers).
Anton in this case would be more the "exception to the rule" or an "outlier" in that I don't think he was a great 5km/10km runner at his own college (Alex Nichols his teammate was faster than him). Like Scott Jurek his actual marathon PR was in the 2:30s (however I believe it was from a high altitude race in like Estes park). He made the most with his limited leg speed at the longer distances.
But "n=1 stories" aren't strong data points though because we're taking about strong correlations and some therefore a bigger sample size with more data points:
The guy that won the Golden Trail Series last year (Elhousine Elazzaoui) is also certainly not a 2:05 marathoner. Maybe 2:15. He's got a 29:50 for 10km on the roads to his credit just like Kilian.....who is also certainly NOT a 2:05 marathoner.
The fact of that matter is that historically it's been very rare that any guy with legit sub 2:06 marathon credentials does a lot of these ultramarathon-trail races. But what we have seen is that a crap ton of guys that have run under 2:20-2:25 have done very well!
For Women more like sub 2:48 and sub 2:40....but the women running in the 2:30s and 2:20s are also some of the very best at ultra-trail races and mountain races also.
Sure, sometimes the 2:25 guy beats the 2:14 guy....it happens. But usually they are more often than not destroying the 2:40 + guy.
If we just look at a few of the guys who have won the Speedgoat 50km over the last decade:
Jim W: 2:14 marathoner, sub 14:00 for 5km runner
David Sinclair: 2:16 marathoner....probably could run faster now
Me: 2:16 marathoner, 1:04 half
Hayden Hawks: sub 14:00 5km runner, sub 29:00 for 10km runner
Adam Peterman: 1:07 half marathon, 8:43 for 3km SC, 14:19 for 5km...
Christian Allen: 13:34 for 5km and now 2:10 marathoner
Notice a pattern here? It's not a like a pure "mountain athlete" can't win these kinds of races still (fast track and road guys have bad days and the fields aren't super deep in some races and some years), but gone are the days were a 2:30 + kind of marathoner shows up and wins a major competitive ultra....especially a 50km.
I still wouldn’t consider a 10-20 minute marathon pr variance for a 50k mountain result to be high correlation. If you took a 7:30 3000 guy and he only ran 8:30 in the SC, would you consider that high correlation? No, that guy is never running the SC again.
Just like "velocity at Vo2max" has a very high correlation of success in a fairly extreme mountain ultra like UTMB. Keep in mind that takes Running Economy into account (and not just raw Vo2max numbers).
Anton in this case would be more the "exception to the rule" or an "outlier" in that I don't think he was a great 5km/10km runner at his own college (Alex Nichols his teammate was faster than him). Like Scott Jurek his actual marathon PR was in the 2:30s (however I believe it was from a high altitude race in like Estes park). He made the most with his limited leg speed at the longer distances.
But "n=1 stories" aren't strong data points though because we're taking about strong correlations and some therefore a bigger sample size with more data points:
The guy that won the Golden Trail Series last year (Elhousine Elazzaoui) is also certainly not a 2:05 marathoner. Maybe 2:15. He's got a 29:50 for 10km on the roads to his credit just like Kilian.....who is also certainly NOT a 2:05 marathoner.
The fact of that matter is that historically it's been very rare that any guy with legit sub 2:06 marathon credentials does a lot of these ultramarathon-trail races. But what we have seen is that a crap ton of guys that have run under 2:20-2:25 have done very well!
For Women more like sub 2:48 and sub 2:40....but the women running in the 2:30s and 2:20s are also some of the very best at ultra-trail races and mountain races also.
Sure, sometimes the 2:25 guy beats the 2:14 guy....it happens. But usually they are more often than not destroying the 2:40 + guy.
If we just look at a few of the guys who have won the Speedgoat 50km over the last decade:
Jim W: 2:14 marathoner, sub 14:00 for 5km runner
David Sinclair: 2:16 marathoner....probably could run faster now
Me: 2:16 marathoner, 1:04 half
Hayden Hawks: sub 14:00 5km runner, sub 29:00 for 10km runner
Adam Peterman: 1:07 half marathon, 8:43 for 3km SC, 14:19 for 5km...
Christian Allen: 13:34 for 5km and now 2:10 marathoner
Notice a pattern here? It's not a like a pure "mountain athlete" can't win these kinds of races still (fast track and road guys have bad days and the fields aren't super deep in some races and some years), but gone are the days were a 2:30 + kind of marathoner shows up and wins a major competitive ultra....especially a 50km.
Sinclair is a "pure mountain athlete" who trained for a couple marathons and ran 2:16.
I am not telling that Elhousine or Kilian can run 2;05 right now as they don’t train for that but that they have the same level of engine of guys that do that. Just before going to Asia for the golden trail series (where he wasn’t in his best shape) while training for mountain running Elhousine ran 28:53 on a very bad course where he finished runner up to Muktar Edris (28:34) and beat a bunch of 1h00 kenyan half marathoners. You aren’t also gonna be at your best at 10k when you train for mountain running, lacking speed…
I think that if you take all sub 2:05 marathoners there would be some who would dominate trail running. But then again you do not only need the 2:05 engine but also the uphill running economy, the elite downhill running…
There would probably be no non african that beats Kilian in 2-4h mountain running. Then again who has a 90+ Vo2 max, was born and raised at 2000m altitude in a mountain hut and practiced several hours of aerobic sports a day from a very young age
David was a road guy before trails so he has plenty of speed background. I think one guy people are forgetting about is Joe Gray. He has literally crushed a lot of those guys on sub ultra events including Sinclair, Hawks and also has beaten Christian Allen (handily a few times even at his older age), Kilian as well. When you look there, he isn't a 2:10 guy and has had major success. I believe your body type is important, genetics and your focus for racing. There are guys in trails who could transition to road primarily and have fast times but it doesn't help their bottom line $$?
There have also been a bunch of sub 2:10 guys who have been training for trail running and are far from the level of the best trail runners. Matthias Kyburz a Swiss orienteer ran 2:07 and 2:37 at Sierre Zinal, Michael Gras (2:08) got destroyed running 3:24 in Sierre Zinal (made a post about it telling it was a humbling experience ), Hassan Chadhi (2:07) ran several trails and got humbled every time being 20’ behind the leaders at Weisshorn (1h50 into Sierre Zinal) then giving up. Nicolas Navarro (2:05) ran trails before and one of his best performances was 2:57 in Sierre Zinal (that year he ran 2:12 in the marathon)…