Ryan Hall ran 59:43 without super shoes, which as Gault has written was a day the stars aligned for a guy who was super talented and trained super hard.
Call me a hater, a jaded, cynical curmudgeon, but I'm sick of hearing our top American men claim to be in sub 60, sub 2:07, whatever shape, then not deliver on race day.
I think this record is overdue to fall on Sunday, the weather looks good, I respect the work Mantz, Klecker, Bor, Pearson, Young put in, and I'm glad we're sending some big dogs to take a swing. But Ryan Hall was a bad MFer and I'm saying his record is still standing when the dust settles.
Ryan Hall ran 59:43 without super shoes, which as Gault has written was a day the stars aligned for a guy who was super talented and trained super hard.
Call me a hater, a jaded, cynical curmudgeon, but I'm sick of hearing our top American men claim to be in sub 60, sub 2:07, whatever shape, then not deliver on race day.
I think this record is overdue to fall on Sunday, the weather looks good, I respect the work Mantz, Klecker, Bor, Pearson, Young put in, and I'm glad we're sending some big dogs to take a swing. But Ryan Hall was a bad MFer and I'm saying his record is still standing when the dust settles.
I agree. I also don't think people realize how incredible that run was at the time. Pre-super shoes when the world record was just 58:55 by Haile G. That said, there is absolutely no reason why guys with sub-13 5k PRs shouldn't be able to easily break the AR in super shoes but for some reason we're still waiting for it to happen. Hall only ran about 13:15 for 5k I believe.
I do think a couple of guys will get close, like 59:50 - 60:10 range, but ultimately fall a little bit short.
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It will eventually be broken. Definitely possible in Houston. Hall's run is probably worth a minute faster in super shoes anyways. The prevalence of doping is probably as much as ever. For the inevitable dopers with super shoes coming forth, this record should be on borrowed time.
As much as I'm a fan of this generation of runners going after the record, I don't think it's going to happen either. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it does fall. But IMO peak Ryan Hall is a whole other beast. I don't think any American runners are currently at his level, not even close.
2) the guys don't have a "build" that is getting in their way. In most of the past years, people were using Houston as a part of the build-up for the OT or some other.
3) They are rivals who are close in ability level. It won't be a blow out. These guys are all in the 59 minute range of fitness, so they should be together and pushing each other all the way.
4) The weather could be good. 30° is too cold, but if it is 38° and warms up to 41°, then it is perfect for fast running.
5) Everyone is telling them the are going to get it and that it is time to go for it. I think that will help their belief in themselves a bit.
Those five factors make me think they will get the record.
This post was edited 50 seconds after it was posted.
2) the guys don't have a "build" that is getting in their way. In most of the past years, people were using Houston as a part of the build-up for the OT or some other.
3) They are rivals who are close in ability level. It won't be a blow out. These guys are all in the 59 minute range of fitness, so they should be together and pushing each other all the way.
4) The weather could be good. 30° is too cold, but if it is 38° and warms up to 41°, then it is perfect for fast running.
5) Everyone is telling them the are going to get it and that it is time to go for it. I think that will help their belief in themselves a bit.
Those five factors make me think they will get the record.
Good points. If it does happen I think it's gotta be Klecker. Mantz is good but Klecker's shorter distance PRs are a step above, plus Mantz was a little banged up recently. Young, Bor, Pearson, whoever else thinks they have a shot are realistically not good enough IMO
Ryan Hall ran 59:43 without super shoes, which as Gault has written was a day the stars aligned for a guy who was super talented and trained super hard.
Call me a hater, a jaded, cynical curmudgeon, but I'm sick of hearing our top American men claim to be in sub 60, sub 2:07, whatever shape, then not deliver on race day.
I think this record is overdue to fall on Sunday, the weather looks good, I respect the work Mantz, Klecker, Bor, Pearson, Young put in, and I'm glad we're sending some big dogs to take a swing. But Ryan Hall was a bad MFer and I'm saying his record is still standing when the dust settles.
Weather looks windy, which is usually evident on the back half of the course. I think Klecker will have a good crack at it, but fall short at around 60:20 or so. Happy to be wrong, however.
2) the guys don't have a "build" that is getting in their way. In most of the past years, people were using Houston as a part of the build-up for the OT or some other.
3) They are rivals who are close in ability level. It won't be a blow out. These guys are all in the 59 minute range of fitness, so they should be together and pushing each other all the way.
4) The weather could be good. 30° is too cold, but if it is 38° and warms up to 41°, then it is perfect for fast running.
5) Everyone is telling them the are going to get it and that it is time to go for it. I think that will help their belief in themselves a bit.
Those five factors make me think they will get the record.
Almost completely correct. Except the weather. I just don't get where you guys get the idea 40 degrees is perfect? It's not. 50-60 degrees is perfect.
2) the guys don't have a "build" that is getting in their way. In most of the past years, people were using Houston as a part of the build-up for the OT or some other.
3) They are rivals who are close in ability level. It won't be a blow out. These guys are all in the 59 minute range of fitness, so they should be together and pushing each other all the way.
4) The weather could be good. 30° is too cold, but if it is 38° and warms up to 41°, then it is perfect for fast running.
5) Everyone is telling them the are going to get it and that it is time to go for it. I think that will help their belief in themselves a bit.
Those five factors make me think they will get the record.
Almost completely correct. Except the weather. I just don't get where you guys get the idea 40 degrees is perfect? It's not. 50-60 degrees is perfect.
Ryan Hall ran 59:43 without super shoes, which as Gault has written was a day the stars aligned for a guy who was super talented and trained super hard.
Call me a hater, a jaded, cynical curmudgeon, but I'm sick of hearing our top American men claim to be in sub 60, sub 2:07, whatever shape, then not deliver on race day.
I think this record is overdue to fall on Sunday, the weather looks good, I respect the work Mantz, Klecker, Bor, Pearson, Young put in, and I'm glad we're sending some big dogs to take a swing. But Ryan Hall was a bad MFer and I'm saying his record is still standing when the dust settles.
Who are the top American men claiming to be in sub-60/2:07 shape and not delivering? I remember a couple of people in the past 5 years saying they were gonna chase the half record (Frank Lara a year or two ago sticks out in my mind), but not any Olympians. Am I just forgetting? Or are you talking about guys who have never done anything to suggest they could come within a minute of the records? (I'd agree with you in that case lol).
Looking at the Olympics last year, Mantz and Young said they were in great shape, and they were. 8th (2:08:12) and 9th (2:08:44) for the both of them, and you're smoking crack if you think that's not worth at LEAST a 2:06 low in Valencia. Hall ran his 2:06:17 pb in 2008 and 'only' came 10th at the Olympics (2:12:33), Mantz and Young both placed better and ran much faster on a way tougher course (with the benefit of supershoes ofc).
I think it'd be nice to introduce some actual data into the discussion, so let's have a look at some Olympic results before I decide whether I think the record goes down or not: The 12th placer at the Olympics (2:09:18) actually went to Valencia in December and ran 2:05:46. The 7th placer at the Olympics (2:07:58) won a half in June in 60:17 and came 2nd with 2:06:18 in Xiamen about a week ago. The 10th placer (2:08:56) won with a 2:06:26 in December in Shanghai, and ran 60:08 and 60:19 in 2022 and 23.
The most shocking one to me is the guy (Richard Ringer) who finished over a minute behind Mantz, and over 30s behind Young, going to Valencia in December and throwing down 2:05:46, only 8s off the American record, which was the only AR better than Hall's half marathon when he set it. Similar 5k/10k pbs to them too. That makes me think Mantz was in 2:04 high-2:05 low shape, which is significantly faster than the (admittedly conservative) 2:06 I mentioned earlier, and I'm sure Young was in similar shape.
There's also Samuel Sebatsu, who ran a 2:06:27pb in Dubai in January, 2:09:50 in Paris, then ran 2:04:56 in Valencia. Nicolas Navarro ran 2:09:56 in Paris off a 2:05:53 in Valencia 2023. I went through everyone that ran sub-2:10 in Paris, and it looks like they were generally winning marathons in ~2:06, and running 2:05 or faster if they ran Valencia.
Took me like an hour, but after all that, I think the answer is pretty clear. If Mantz and Young are in shape, the record is going down. I don't see anyone breaking the record if Mantz and Young aren't close to the best shape of their lives. I'd say Klecker has a good shot too if he's in shape. That 12:54 is great, and I think he was 2nd at NCAA XC, I just don't have much to go off of since he hasn't raced in so long. But if there's anything OAC is good at, it's running really well in January. Bor is the least likely out of the top 4 to get it, given he ran 61 in Valencia back in October, but I think he'll still run a good time.
Is there not a thread about this video? It was entertaining but kind of ridiculous. Building these guys up to be something they haven’t proved. Also making it seem like Klecker is on Mantz level which is crazy. I think Klecker finishes 45-60 seconds behind Mantz. At this point I hope halls record hold for another 10 years
No. Mantz has had his chances and it's clear he can't get under 60 flat. Klecker is a wild card but I am predicting he doesn't get anywhere close. He's coming off an injury and my theory is he is just going to be too big to be good at any distance past 10k.
People forget that Ryan Hall had some pretty good coaching. My understanding was that he had a long distance coach named God, and this kind of coaching can be quite inspiring. So I am not sure that Dathan or Ed or whoever, as good as they are, are really at that level.
People forget that Ryan Hall had some pretty good coaching. My understanding was that he had a long distance coach named God, and this kind of coaching can be quite inspiring. So I am not sure that Dathan or Ed or whoever, as good as they are, are really at that level.
People forget that Ryan Hall had some pretty good coaching. My understanding was that he had a long distance coach named God, and this kind of coaching can be quite inspiring. So I am not sure that Dathan or Ed or whoever, as good as they are, are really at that level.
Technically, Hall was coached by Terrence Mahon in January 2007. He had not yet entered into a coaching arrangement with God at that time. He would later switch to being coached by God, during which time he ran some pretty quick marathons.
