I have said in the past that Kiplimo has a nonzero chance of being humanity's first sub 2 marathoner, but I didn't think he would attempt it so early. Maybe he is trying to go the Kiptum route and get into marathoning early instead of waiting until age 34 and being burnt to the crisp on the track. In any case, I still have reservations about this because I feel he has a lot to offer on the track still particularly at 10000. This will surely ruin his whole track season right?
I have said in the past that Kiplimo has a nonzero chance of being humanity's first sub 2 marathoner, but I didn't think he would attempt it so early. Maybe he is trying to go the Kiptum route and get into marathoning early instead of waiting until age 34 and being burnt to the crisp on the track. In any case, I still have reservations about this because I feel he has a lot to offer on the track still particularly at 10000. This will surely ruin his whole track season right?
Worlds are incredibly late this year - mid September
Wow, I nearly fell out of rojo’s chair when I saw the men’s field.
Jacob Kiplimo - 57:31, 2x World XC champ
Tamirat Tola - Olympic champion/2:04:58 NYC CR/2:03:39
Alexander Mutiso - 57:59/2:03:11/defending champ
Sebastian Sawe - 2:02:05 debut in Valencia/58:05
Milkesa Mengesha - 2:03:17 win at Berlin 2024
Timothy Kiplagat - 2:02:55
Abdi Nageeye - 2:04:45, wins in Rotterdam and NYC in 2024
Emile Cairess - 2:06:46, 4th at Paris Olympics
There are 6 guys who are capable of 2:03 or faster, and with good weather it could be a 2:01 winning time. Kiplimo is definitely the most exciting entry, but my pick would be another lightning fast half guy who’s already proven he can excel at the full distance, Sebastian Sawe.
Sawe is probably the right pick. I was so impressed with Nageeye in NY and he seems to be leveling up, but yes, it’s a stretch to think he dramatically prs at age 35. Anyway, going against the grain based on emotion rather than sober analysis is my usual approach.
I have said in the past that Kiplimo has a nonzero chance of being humanity's first sub 2 marathoner, but I didn't think he would attempt it so early. Maybe he is trying to go the Kiptum route and get into marathoning early instead of waiting until age 34 and being burnt to the crisp on the track. In any case, I still have reservations about this because I feel he has a lot to offer on the track still particularly at 10000. This will surely ruin his whole track season right?
This is not “early” for Kiplimo to run a marathon. Jakob ran 27:26 in 2016, 9 years ago. So no matter his age, and I don’t pretend to know his age, he has been a world class runner for almost a decade. There is also a nonzero chance that Kiplimo never breaks 2:06, and like Tadese, never runs a marathon that measures up to his other performances. But I think he will one day break 2:06, but probably will never have the marathon world record.
When I said Jakob ran 27:26 in 2016, 9 years ago, I meant Jacob Kiplimo of course. Galen Rupp went to the marathon 9 years after running 27:33, and nobody thought he went to the marathon early.
Just heard from a good friend. Didn't see a thread yet- should hit the interwebs soon.
This is exciting, but I'm definitely holding back some optimism for his chances for a big debut. When was the last time a prolific half marathoner stepped up to the marathon and had immediate success? Guys like Tadese and Kandie were terrific at 13.1 but struggled mightily at 26.2, and certainly not for a lack of trying.
Good for him! I like his style and think he will do really well.
But it kind of makes me sad for the 10,000m scene on the track. I feel like without Cheptegei and now without Kiplimo, the 10,000m is just a lot less interesting.
Just heard from a good friend. Didn't see a thread yet- should hit the interwebs soon.
This is exciting, but I'm definitely holding back some optimism for his chances for a big debut. When was the last time a prolific half marathoner stepped up to the marathon and had immediate success? Guys like Tadese and Kandie were terrific at 13.1 but struggled mightily at 26.2, and certainly not for a lack of trying.
I completely agree with your post- Kamworor is another one that comes to mind. Fingers crossed that it translates this time to a great 26.2, however!
If anyone can eventually break 2 hours in a real race, it's Kiplimo. 2:05 seems like a good place to start.
I don’t believe Kiplimo has done anything to indicate that he has a better chance of breaking 2 hours than several others, none of whom seem to have a chance. The best chance will probably come from mechanical doping (shoes) advancements or pharmaceutical advances.
I don’t believe Kiplimo has done anything to indicate that he has a better chance of breaking 2 hours than several others, none of whom seem to have a chance. The best chance will probably come from mechanical doping (shoes) advancements or pharmaceutical advances.
Setting the half marathon world record (since beaten by 1s) in a poorly-paced effort doesn't fit your criteria?
Anyhow, I was probably most bullish on Kiplimo to rewrite the marathon record books in 2021-22. He seems to have plateaued a bit since then. Granted, he's still beaten Aregawi and others in World XC and he's set some PBs on the track (though not huge ones).
He got beat in Copenhagen by Sawe. There was some mixup on a turn, but I don't think that determined the winner. Granted, Sawe did run 2:02:0x in his debut a couple months later, so not a bad guy to lose to. I do think Kiplimo is tactically pretty poor on the track, which has more to do with some of his track struggles.
One concern, from what I've read he is pretty low-mileage much like Cheptegei. Closer to 80mpw than 100mpw with a focus on quality over quantity. While that is great up to the half marathon, big mileage is king in the full. I'm under the impression that Sawe and the 2Running Club (with Evans Chebet, Benson Kipruto et al.) are pretty high mileage, which is probably why he converted so well. So my concern is purely that Kiplimo is gonna go in and be humbled a bit like Cheptegei was, unless he's strongly upped his mileage. I'll say he goes through in around 61 minutes and hangs on for 2:04 high and about 5th or 6th place.
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I don’t believe Kiplimo has done anything to indicate that he has a better chance of breaking 2 hours than several others, none of whom seem to have a chance. The best chance will probably come from mechanical doping (shoes) advancements or pharmaceutical advances.
Setting the half marathon world record (since beaten by 1s) in a poorly-paced effort doesn't fit your criteria?
Anyhow, I was probably most bullish on Kiplimo to rewrite the marathon record books in 2021-22. He seems to have plateaued a bit since then. Granted, he's still beaten Aregawi and others in World XC and he's set some PBs on the track (though not huge ones).
He got beat in Copenhagen by Sawe. There was some mixup on a turn, but I don't think that determined the winner. Granted, Sawe did run 2:02:0x in his debut a couple months later, so not a bad guy to lose to. I do think Kiplimo is tactically pretty poor on the track, which has more to do with some of his track struggles.
One concern, from what I've read he is pretty low-mileage much like Cheptegei. Closer to 80mpw than 100mpw with a focus on quality over quantity. While that is great up to the half marathon, big mileage is king in the full. I'm under the impression that Sawe and the 2Running Club (with Evans Chebet, Benson Kipruto et al.) are pretty high mileage, which is probably why he converted so well. So my concern is purely that Kiplimo is gonna go in and be humbled a bit like Cheptegei was, unless he's strongly upped his mileage. I'll say he goes through in around 61 minutes and hangs on for 2:04 high and about 5th or 6th place.
Yeah he is a great runner, so maybe a better way to phrase it is I think Kiplimo has a better chance of an Olympic Gold in the marathon (maybe 1/6) than to break 2 hours (maybe 1/100).