American Track and XC Will Die in the Next Decade

I actually think it’s in a great spot moving towards the Olympics in 2028. Maybe I’m wrong but you make it seem like track and xc were at one point very popular. They weren’t. It’s always been a fringe sport. I do feel like the us is positioned well with runners that will be competing in LA. You have fisher coming home after winning two medals. Hoker won gold. Blanks just won 2 back to back NCAAs after making finals in Paris. Valby is always going to generate interest. Nico Young is a major talent. Etc. and that’s just on the distance side.

Most of the issues you cited have been present for decades. The only ones that aren’t are the NCAA roster size restrictions and the decline in coaches’ associations.

I think neither will really affect future olympians.

And neither will affect high school participation. The sport isn't going anywhere, either up or down.

I don’t think it will be increasing in participation on the high school or NCAA level. Probably decreasing as the popularity has decreased along with the fanbase. More and more universities are eliminating programs either XC or track and some of the better high schools have decreased participation. The sport is just not attracting spectators for a good reason. ITS BORING to watch and this comes from a track rat that follows the pros. No one I know can name any runners unless they’re in the news or there is recent hype about them. And then it’s forgotten. And hey I personally don’t think pros should be getting paid more. Just no ROI on it

Your bullet points are spot on. But they have always been spot on. Go back over your list and find the things that weren't true in 1948 or 1988...

Honestly, the thing that makes me most sad going forward is the idea that track and cross country are being cut back at the college level. There are 500,000 NCAA athletes (slightly more), those people go on to provide the base for the next generation of runners, swimmers, lacrosse players, etc.

I feel like almost all the track and field fans I know were D3 types in college. I have never watched a Diamond League meet with friends who weren't runners. We need runners to have a sport of running...

So I think we should have doubled the size of NCAA XC teams (the kids don't all have to travel), but the NCAA went the other direction and instituted roster caps. Boo!

Nah. Lose the entitlement. The US college sports model is bloated, perverse, and anachronistic. The European model is better, and it's a good thing that the US would be starting to move a bit closer to that. Enjoying competing doesn't require athletic scholarships and cross-country trips just to compete. Things will continue just fine, I promise you.

There's truth in much of what has been stated so far.

The quality at the top isnt going to be less. Some coaches will continue to bring in foriegn students just like they have for decades and others will mix as well as develop home growns that are talented willing.

D3 is unlimited but not a good fit for everyone for a variety of reasons. JUCO is always going to be the most efficient way to process nonadmissibles to D1, kinda like they already have been. D2 is potentially the area that could change the most. Minor leaguers for D1 if they can develop enough to break into their lineups.

I cant get too excited either way though knowing there's a chance that minor sports are going to bite the dust for fb and bb to get their millions. Im concerned that the transition to a club system will create a gap that will be hard to recover from in the athlete 18-24 age group. But, if anyone can figure it out, Ill leave it (my confidence) up to the greatest athletics country the planet has ever had. There will be changes made to maintain that status. The fastest will always want to know how fast they can be and there will be a path for them. It's just hard to know what thats going to look like yet.

AAU track and field seems as popular as ever.

Road racing dying is what's doing it. People run, but that's it.

I live in the area, so go to the Indoor Grand Prix in Boston. I think it’s a microcosm of the fan base: hard core current and ex-athletes, employees of the shoe/apparel companies, friends/family of the athletes, some HS kids and maybe an Ethiopian cheering section. People who run the local 5 kms, trails & tris are in a parallel universe and pay no attention.

You are 100% correct!

High school and college running will remain steady, however the only REAL growth will be in adult running. Road Races across the world have been selling out. Detroit Marathon events sold out COMPLETELY for the first time in 30 years for example.

To some extent, but back we saw Prefontaine on the cover of Sports Illustrated when he was still a teenager in 1970. That really was a notable accomplishment back then.

If you fast-forward to today, there's no way you would ever see the equivalent level of attention devoted to an American distance runner who was a freshman in college. All that to say, back then the sport definitely was much more prominent in the U.S. media.

No, track is not dying, in America or anywhere else.

I'm old enough to remember a Track and Field News cover piece with the title, "What if they gave a track meet and nobody came?" The story was pubished in the 1980s. It quoted athletes and coaches basically saying, "OMG track is DYING!!!"

Almost 40 years later, people are saying the same thing. 40 years from now, they'll still be saying it.

Track is NOT dying. It just is what it is. Always has been, always will be. Either accept it for what it is or find something else to do with your time. Either way, track will survive, and remain essentially unchanged.

Road racing is booming though. Participation is up, times are getting faster.

There will always be track and field in the US. The reason is that it will always be a sport in the US high schools. What will change and is changing is how the sport is approached at the college level. That could definitely hurt the development of US athletes.

>Lack of a viable domestic competitive circuit

There are enough domestic meets and opportunities available to make this irrelevant.

>Low wages for 95% of athletes

This has been the case since the 50s and yet people still run. In fact, the situation has improved considerably since the days of amateurism.

>Greatly diminished collegiate opportunities

Ok, this one could actually be an issue.

>Limited collegiate spots filled be already developed foreign athletes

NAIA, D2, D3, and Juco all exist. New Mexicos's 7 person roster isn't the only running group in the US.

>Coaches salaries fail to meet local cost-of-living requirements

This has been the case literally forever, and will continue being the case and it won't matter. Coaches are the most passionate people in this sport you will ever find, and as demonstrated by the college open positions thread many would work for criminally low wages because they love the sport.

>Social media overwhelmingly focused on and targeted to casual hobbyists and aspirational challenge seekers

This literally grows the sport so this is irrelevant.

>National governing body losing money, not providing meaningful development programs or grassroots support for beginners/young athletes

We don't live in the UK where the club system is the be-all-end-all of track. We have the greatest grassroots track and field development program on earth - it's called the American high school system. Don't even get me started on AAU and the club system we DO have - USATF could drop all support tomorrow and we would still pump out world-class talent every year.

>No athlete’s union or support organization

This is conceptually problematic but it isn't gonna result in a collapse of the sport. Starbucks not having a union doesn't make the Coffee industry collapse, it just makes life suck for the workers.

>Professional coaches organizations are dwindling in size and influence

Good, they all suck.

>Disjointed and poor quality media coverage of events requiring subscriptions

Ok, this one is actually a problem.

>A growing feeling amongst the limited fan base that most performances are tainted by PED usage

Literally no one off of Letsrun actually cares. The vast majority are ambivalent and many openly support it. I'm sorry, its the truth. Why do you think the NFL doesn't do off-season testing?

>Fan base does not travel for live events opting for poor quality streams, next day downloads to video sharing sites, and forum discussions

This honestly seems like a really small issue and hardly relevant to the collapse of American track and field

>Sadly, the Los Angeles Olympic Games will be the zenith of American track and field interest. Afterwards, it will steadily decline into irrelevance as the public discovers novel experiences and is further seduced by the marketing power of well funded sports leagues.

If US distance running got through the 90s, where a single American high schooler broke 9 (who wasn't even an American citizen) in 1993, American track and field will be fine in an age of 10x the coverage and opportunity.

>Fewer young people will see their high school running experience leading to anything substantial and will increasingly become addicted to social media, gaming, and other enhanced entertainment options.

LOL

Which means the most talented would-be baristas end up choosing some other path in life, such as NFL or Premier league player.