1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen. He won the under 20 race four years in a row. And he won the senior race in 2021 and 2022. He is faster on threshold than Almgren (according to Andreas himself) and is faster over the last 1000-1500m as well. I dont see how anyone could beat him unless he falls/is injured.
2. Andreas Almgren. He has said that he is better than last year (and he ran sub 13/sub 27 and sub 60 last season). He is faster than Thierry over 800-1500m (he ran 3:32:00 quite recently)
3. Thierry Ndikumwenayo. He has similar personal bests as Almgren, but doesn’t have the same 800m-1500m speed as Almgren or Ingebrigtsen.
1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen. He won the under 20 race four years in a row. And he won the senior race in 2021 and 2022. He is faster on threshold than Almgren (according to Andreas himself) and is faster over the last 1000-1500m as well. I dont see how anyone could beat him unless he falls/is injured.
2. Andreas Almgren. He has said that he is better than last year (and he ran sub 13/sub 27 and sub 60 last season). He is faster than Thierry over 800-1500m (he ran 3:32:00 quite recently)
3. Thierry Ndikumwenayo. He has similar personal bests as Almgren, but doesn’t have the same 800m-1500m speed as Almgren or Ingebrigtsen.
It’s a short men’s race, less than 8k. This fares for Jakob better, but why is it so short compared to other previous senior-level races?
Brit Will Barnicoat won the U20 race in 2022 and the U23 race in 2023. Dane Axel Vang Christensen who runs in U23 for the first time won the U20 race in 2021 and in 2023. Who will come out on top sunday.
Fellow dane Joel Ibler Lillesoe might also finish in the top especially if the course is fast (Joel doesn´t like muddy ones). The danes have a decent third runner so they might challenge for a team medal which would be an unusual feat (to the contrary the Brits would surprise if they don´t take a team medal).
They decided a few years ago to make the women's and men's distances the same, and last year when women and men ran the same distances, the numbers in senior women's was much lower than the senior men's, which isn't a good look. And they normally they have a 1km loop and a 1500m loop, so can run any distance of race, but they only have 1500m loop this year, hence races of 4500m, 6000m, 7500m, rather than the senior race being 8000m. Men's and women's entries are pretty even this year - men about the same as last year, many more senior women.
Ireland to Podium in the Senior Mens Team behind GB and France.
Sneaky pick but they were 4th last year and Efram Gidey has improved significantly and it should be a shorter (7.8k) faster course in Turkey
Norway to miss out despite the obvious low stick Jakob will set.
I can´t see any big names on the British team.
As I already has stated in another thread: The Belgians Isaac Kimeli, Robin Hendrix and John Heymans look good. If all three of them perform up to their best.
Ireland to Podium in the Senior Mens Team behind GB and France.
Sneaky pick but they were 4th last year and Efram Gidey has improved significantly and it should be a shorter (7.8k) faster course in Turkey
Norway to miss out despite the obvious low stick Jakob will set.
I can´t see any big names on the British team.
As I already has stated in another thread: The Belgians Isaac Kimeli, Robin Hendrix and John Heymans look good. If all three of them perform up to their best.
Belgians do look good,
Hugo Milner is an animal for the Brits. Normally a triathlete, 4th in the cross last year.
Zak Muhammad is also unreal at the cross. Was sick for Liverpool
1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen. He won the under 20 race four years in a row. And he won the senior race in 2021 and 2022. He is faster on threshold than Almgren (according to Andreas himself) and is faster over the last 1000-1500m as well. I dont see how anyone could beat him unless he falls/is injured.
2. Andreas Almgren. He has said that he is better than last year (and he ran sub 13/sub 27 and sub 60 last season). He is faster than Thierry over 800-1500m (he ran 3:32:00 quite recently)
3. Thierry Ndikumwenayo. He has similar personal bests as Almgren, but doesn’t have the same 800m-1500m speed as Almgren or Ingebrigtsen.
I have a problem with your third ranked here: He just beat Kwizera and Aregawi in a top xc race. And he (Ndikumwenayo) has xc placings in WC like no other Europeans the last few years. And when it comes to closing speed: Did you know he won a DL 3000m in 7.25..!?
Conclusion: I would place Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Andreas Almgren and Thierry Ndikumwenayo as joint favourites for the win…
1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen. He won the under 20 race four years in a row. And he won the senior race in 2021 and 2022. He is faster on threshold than Almgren (according to Andreas himself) and is faster over the last 1000-1500m as well. I dont see how anyone could beat him unless he falls/is injured.
2. Andreas Almgren. He has said that he is better than last year (and he ran sub 13/sub 27 and sub 60 last season). He is faster than Thierry over 800-1500m (he ran 3:32:00 quite recently)
3. Thierry Ndikumwenayo. He has similar personal bests as Almgren, but doesn’t have the same 800m-1500m speed as Almgren or Ingebrigtsen.
Jakob then Thierry. After that I think we might Kimeli and Schrub before we see Almgren.
1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen. He won the under 20 race four years in a row. And he won the senior race in 2021 and 2022. He is faster on threshold than Almgren (according to Andreas himself) and is faster over the last 1000-1500m as well. I dont see how anyone could beat him unless he falls/is injured.
2. Andreas Almgren. He has said that he is better than last year (and he ran sub 13/sub 27 and sub 60 last season). He is faster than Thierry over 800-1500m (he ran 3:32:00 quite recently)
3. Thierry Ndikumwenayo. He has similar personal bests as Almgren, but doesn’t have the same 800m-1500m speed as Almgren or Ingebrigtsen.
I have a problem with your third ranked here: He just beat Kwizera and Aregawi in a top xc race. And he (Ndikumwenayo) has xc placings in WC like no other Europeans the last few years. And when it comes to closing speed: Did you know he won a DL 3000m in 7.25..!?
Conclusion: I would place Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Andreas Almgren and Thierry Ndikumwenayo as joint favourites for the win…
Come on CuriousDude! As a Norwegian with an ambition of staying neutral you tend to go into the opposite ditch (i den modsatte grøft) when judging your famous compatriot.
It is true that Ndikumwenayo recently has beat some strong runners in a X country race but we don´t know if these runners were near top shape. It is also true that Ndikumwenayo has won a 3000m in 7:25 but it is still 8 seconds behind Jakob´s WR race time.
So I will think that Jakob will run away in the final as usual. Provided his training is going according to the schedule. See how Ndikumwenayo fared the last times he competed with Jakob in the Rome 5000m final and the Paris 5000m in 2024.
I will, however, also make a reservation for a very muddy race since Ndikumwenayo as a much lighter runner might negotiate the mud better.
Also I tend to agree with THOUGHTSLEADER that Kimeli and Schrub come before Almgren.
Other favorites: Belgians Hendrix and Heymans, Norwegian Myhre and Italian Crippa.
Come on CuriousDude! As a Norwegian with an ambition of staying neutral you tend to go into the opposite ditch (i den modsatte grøft) when judging your famous compatriot.
It is true that Ndikumwenayo recently has beat some strong runners in a X country race but we don´t know if these runners were near top shape. It is also true that Ndikumwenayo has won a 3000m in 7:25 but it is still 8 seconds behind Jakob´s WR race time.
So I will think that Jakob will run away in the final as usual. Provided his training is going according to the schedule. See how Ndikumwenayo fared the last times he competed with Jakob in the Rome 5000m final and the Paris 5000m in 2024.
I will, however, also make a reservation for a very muddy race since Ndikumwenayo as a much lighter runner might negotiate the mud better.
Also I tend to agree with THOUGHTSLEADER that Kimeli and Schrub come before Almgren.
Other favorites: Belgians Hendrix and Heymans, Norwegian Myhre and Italian Crippa.
I don’t think I’m knowledgeable enough to try to be neutral here… -My agenda is first and foremost (in addition to give Ndikumwenayo some well deserved credit) to give Jakob some slack..! We can’t expect him to go on winning (now with better Euro competition) if he is a significantly worse athlete the longer the distance. But I think he is much better prepared now than in Copenhagen, and given a reduced course (7.8 km) I think Jakob will be tough to beat. But he has never shown himself as a good 10k runner, and a peak Ndikumwenayo might toy with him…. (But not if Jakob for the first time has adjusted his training to a better distance one -exciting to see..! Could also be that he had a very off day in Denmark -he hasn’t said anything about that, but he alluded to fatigue after only 2k, so maybe it was…?). I must also add that Ndikumwenayo also has shown some vulnerabilities -lost to Lobalu and Schrub in Euros 10000m 2024. But he has made at least three very strong xc’s the last few years -I don’t know if Jakob can match 9.th placings in WC…
The Norwegian Myhre? Maybe -he was outkicked in the Nationals xc for silver, but I hope he is stronger now (healed longer after injuries). But I really really miss Nordås -he is qualified, but won’t run because of the never ending Norwegian conflict. -I think he would have had a huge potential in that course, but now we never will know…
This post was edited 11 minutes after it was posted.