NXN Girls 2024 Predictions

Go to school

I also ran mock meets by replacing Carmel with one of a few of the other potential At Larges. Bridgeland basically projected to do the same as Carmel, middle of tier 3. Webb of Knoxville actually projected to be at bottom of tier 2 (actually finishing higher than the other SE teams), and Santiago Corona projected to be solidly in the middle of tier 2 next to JSerra and Fossil Ridge.

Just for fun I used latest seasonal speed ratings for those listed in the top national list, and then the regionals for the rest. I came up with:

Vista
Nation
sw
73
Trabuco Hills
ca
140
Bethlehem
ny
153
Buchanon
ca
160
Flower Mound
s
184
Academy
sw
204
Cardinal Gibbons
se
235
Union Catholic
ne
239
Lone Peak
sw
244
Fossil Ridge
sw
257
Runners High
mw
259
Wayzata
hl
259
Jserra
ca
275
Downers North
mw
334
Grit
nw
337
Lemrac
mw
348
Dragoons
hl
359
Brentwood
se
372
Forest Park
nw
376
Shenendoah
ny
414
Champlain Valley
ne
436
Carroll
s
462

So basically unless more than two of vistas runners don’t run well ( because of their insane depth) they win?

by my model I can knock their 2nd sr down 10 and 3rd down 5 and they still win. Their first three are so good that being a little off does not seem to change scoring very much

In my simulation, if everyone on MV ran 5.5 seconds slower than their NXR (or the speed rating over estimated), and every runner on TH ran 5.5 seconds faster (or speed rating under estimated), then Trabuco Hills wins 87 to 89. Based on straight NXR speed Ratings I had MV winning 74 to 107. Another way to look at it is TH needs to make up 11 seconds per runner on average against MV to win.

Good stuff. Speaks to the quality of MV. I haven’t looked too closely at Meylan’s SR for Woodward yesterday, but it’s wild that Trabuco will likely need to improve on the greatest team run in CA state history to have a shot at the title.

The last couple years have also seen the Colorado teams blow away the state course records. Consider this very rough comparison. At 2023 NXN, Buchanan was the closest California school to Air Academy, with a team average 55 seconds slower. This year Trabuco ran 30 seconds faster than Buchanan did in 2023. And 2024 MV ran 10 seconds slower than 2023 AA at Colorado State Champs. That closes the gap 40 seconds, but still leave a 15 second delta between the two top teams. The 11 second difference indicated by speed ratings does seem reasonable when you look at it this way.

If I add 2 to the Bethlehem state meet speed ratings, 2 to the TH state meet speed ratings and subtract 2 from the Vista NXR speed ratings it become basically a 3 way tie. So who will have their best day of the season? If they all "just" match their best, Vista would seem to win.

I was using the ratings from NXR NY, but I do see that if you use Beth ratings from the state meet, then that puts Bethlehem right up there in my “tier 1”. Add in that MV hasn’t been the most consistent team the last couple years, it will make for an interesting race.

remember that juliet frum dropped 100 meters from the finish line at the CO state meet while in third place and ended up being vistas 7th runner. That would bring down the team average and score.

Do all these calculations adjust for differences in times due to altitude vs sea level racing?

Seems that a historically great team coming down from altitude (Niwot, Air Academy, MV, Herriman, AF, et al) will always have an advantage over a historically great team located at sea level (TH, Buchanan, all the Jesuit schools racing this weekend, et al).

Adams and Frum had horrible state races last year and they came back and got 3rd with 2 other girls who are still on the team. They are better than ever. They could have won state without their top runner. They will be fine.

With 2 other girls who are still on the team, but not good enough for the NXN team.

All this analysis is pretty much right on.

Battle will be between Vista, Trabuco and Bethlehem.

Bethlehem weakness is no low stick. Their best meets were mid season: Manhattan, League Meet, Section 2 Meet. At states and NXR NY they did not have to max out, so they will be fresh and ready to go at Glendoveer, knowing that only a season best from all 5 can win.

Meylan’s speed ratings attempt to compensate for elevation differences. If anything, SR have tended to under value teams from elevation.

To your second point, absolutely living and training at altitude has benefits for XC. BYU and NAU have benefited from their locations in their respective NCAA championship runs. However, the recent surge of great high school teams from mountain states is just that, Recent. Especially on the girls side. So there is more than just training at elevation going on. I believe Colorado only had 2 podium finishes in the first 15 years of NXN, but 6 in the last 3 years (including RL21). But the elevation in Colorado hasn’t changed. Some of this may just be cyclical. California took 5 of 9 podium spots at NXN between 2014 and 2016, and NY of course had a long stretch of dominance and fared just fine against teams from mountain states. If it were just a matter of training at altitude, we would have seen this every year, and we haven’t.

Nike will have an emt and medical tent positioned at that spot to be ready for her at Glendoveer.

Dude you cannot be serious right now

If Cardinal Gibbons #2 from earlier in the season (Estep) when they won Roy Griak and Great American gets back to form i think they are a top 10 squad for sure. But she missed a month between Great American and the North Carolina state meet and wasn't really right at either states or NXR (was almost 40 seconds slower at NXR than she was at Great American on the same course). If she's not back to that level then i think they are probably closer to 15th.