That sounds like a low level D1 kid. I have a girl with slightly better marks (closer to 5:05/11:05) who is getting offers from solid mid majors and weak big D1 schools around us. One other thing to note about my athlete is that they didn't move full time into running until their sophomore year. She's gotten a bit higher offers than I would have guessed based on previous athletes with her marks, and I think that's the big factor.
The main difference between this year and previous years is that walk on spots aren't available at the next tier up like they would have been in the past. On one of her visits her offer was contingent on a certain number of seniors NOT returning for a 5th year. She's also visited some high level D2s and has a few more visits lined up at D1s (guessing teams that missed out on their first targets and are moving into their second tier).
This is the general approach we tell ALL kids that want to run collegiately to take:
1. Identify your budget, preferred academic study, and how far you are interested in going from home.
2. Talk to HS coach, get a feel for what level you should begin searching at. Our staff has done this for awhile and can usually get pretty close, but it's okay to encourage athletes to cast a wide net if you are newer. It's so hit or miss where athletes find their best fit.
3. Look at conference and regional results for the region and level you are interested in. Eliminate schools that are way above your ability or don't offer your academic area. This usually generates a list of around 15 schools.
4. Fill out recruiting questionnaire and (BRIEFLY) email the event coach for each school on your list. Include PRs and academic scores. I would estimate athletes hear back from 2/3rds of schools.
5. If possible, visit a few of the closest schools over the summer for academic visits (it's fine to give coaches a heads up you'll be there in case they have a free moment). You'll learn a ton more about the college process just by going on the standard tours and if gives you a feel for what to ask if you do official visits later. You don't always have a ton of control over when official visits get scheduled, but we try to have kids avoid them during our championship season (the travel just wears them down and they don't perform as well).
6. When it comes to decision time, we recommend athletes try to find a school where they don't have to take out loans, slot into the top 10 from day 1, and would have a positive academic and social life even if running doesn't work out.