Serious question (insight appreciated) regarding JI 10000 potential

Peach Pit wrote:

if this guy could go 26:59 I think Jakob has a shot at the WR

Link:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Solinsky

Armstronglivs wrote:

If the wr holder of the 2k and the 3k/2miles had the ability to take the 5k record he would already have done so. Particularly with the ambitions he has to take every record from the 1500 up to the HM.

Rubio wrote:

I'm done doubting his ability to beat the 5000 WR. I find the claims that he could go sub 12:30 unrealistic, though.

But does he actually stand a chance at the 10000 WR? No current athlete has got closer than 20".

He weights aprox. 15 kg more than Chep and 20 more than Kiplimo/Aregawi/Barega.

Considering he would have to run the last 5000 alone, isn't his morphology (1'87/75 kg) too "big" for wind resistance, heat dissipation...

...and carrying these 74/75 kg every stride?

For instance, Joshua is pretty tall for a distance runner (1.83) but below 60 kg, so he benefits from stride length without the "big" (again, for a distance runner) frame.

Kejelcha is barely his same height weighting at least 15 kg less.

TL;DR: Jakob's frame could be too big for 10000 & up distances.

Rubio wrote:

I'm done doubting his ability to beat the 5000 WR. I find the claims that he could go sub 12:30 unrealistic, though.

But does he actually stand a chance at the 10000 WR? No current athlete has got closer than 20".

He weights aprox. 15 kg more than Chep and 20 more than Kiplimo/Aregawi/Barega.

Considering he would have to run the last 5000 alone, isn't his morphology (1'87/75 kg) too "big" for wind resistance, heat dissipation...

...and carrying these 74/75 kg every stride?

For instance, Joshua is pretty tall for a distance runner (1.83) but below 60 kg, so he benefits from stride length without the "big" (again, for a distance runner) frame.

Kejelcha is barely his same height weighting at least 15 kg less.

TL;DR: Jakob's frame could be too big for 10000 & up distances.

snowflakes wrote:

WWelp wrote:

The fact the Jakob started walking after 10k in the half may give us more insight than trying to scale up his 3k.

Aregawi ran a 5k in 12:43 and then came back and rabbited the half marathon looking a lot more comfortable than Jakob.

I would say Jakob does not currently have the strength for the 5k record. He may get there in the next few season though.

Hes probably 20s off the 10k record.

Nonsense. No sh*t that at the end of a season where he is peaking for the 1500m, he would be a few seconds off the 5k WR. He will break it in may/june next year coming right off his training.

Rubio wrote:

Sure, I knew about Solinsky =)

But 26:59 is roughly 5"/km off WR pace, so not sure if it means anything in this scenario.

PickleRick wrote:

Rubio wrote:

Sure, I knew about Solinsky =)

But 26:59 is roughly 5"/km off WR pace, so not sure if it means anything in this scenario.

It is a relevant datapoint. Solinski's 10000 pb is 5'/km slower than the WR, but also his 5000 pb is 4'/km slower than the WR, while Jakob is arguably in 5000 WR shape.

This isn't to argue what Jakob could run now, but to extrapolate what he could do after more specific training for the 10

sub 12:30 / 26:00 within the next 2 years wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

If the wr holder of the 2k and the 3k/2miles had the ability to take the 5k record he would already have done so. Particularly with the ambitions he has to take every record from the 1500 up to the HM.

Right. Just like how you predicted he wasn't going to break 8 minutes in Paris last year.

Koltrast wrote:

I think he can get the 5k and 10k WR, but the concerns about him being too big for the WR in the HM and Marathon are very valid. Getting the European record in the HM and marathon would still be very good for a runner of his build and skillset.

Kickers usually win wrote:

snowflakes wrote:

Nonsense. No sh*t that at the end of a season where he is peaking for the 1500m, he would be a few seconds off the 5k WR. He will break it in may/june next year coming right off his training.

A 1500/5000m runner can simultaneously be at his best for both distances.

Jogger262 wrote:

5K seems very doable for Jakob. Anything 10K and up remains to be seen, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets very close to the HM WR with a proper dedicated training block after some rest.

snowflakes wrote:

WWelp wrote:

The fact the Jakob started walking after 10k in the half may give us more insight than trying to scale up his 3k.

Aregawi ran a 5k in 12:43 and then came back and rabbited the half marathon looking a lot more comfortable than Jakob.

I would say Jakob does not currently have the strength for the 5k record. He may get there in the next few season though.

Hes probably 20s off the 10k record.

Nonsense. No sh*t that at the end of a season where he is peaking for the 1500m, he would be a few seconds off the 5k WR. He will break it in may/june next year coming right off his training.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Jogger262 wrote:

5K seems very doable for Jakob. Anything 10K and up remains to be seen, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets very close to the HM WR with a proper dedicated training block after some rest.

It is curious that a runner for whom records matter and who goes after them whenever he can hasn't gone after the 5k record and his best is currently nowhere near it. Jakob's forte is obviously non-championship distances. Mr Inbetween.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Koltrast wrote:

I think he can get the 5k and 10k WR, but the concerns about him being too big for the WR in the HM and Marathon are very valid. Getting the European record in the HM and marathon would still be very good for a runner of his build and skillset.

No - as we know (since he tells us) the HM is his best distance. That means the 5k is out of his wheelhouse.