Lyles has the speed and 400 experience, but Ingebrigtsen has the endurance. I think Jakob wins it, but it would be very close. Noah Lyles probably goes out hard, and Jakob will have to kick it in the last 100. After seeing Duplantis vs. Warholm in the 100, I was wondering if there could be another cool exhibition race, and I think this would be it. Unite the worlds of sprinting, and mid-distance running!
Lyles has run under 45 in a relay. Ingebrigtsen hasn't run below 50sec that we know of. At the 400 Lyles is 5 secs in front. What are the chances he could cover the last 100 in 15 secs and Ingebrigtsen runs it in 10?
No, he doesn't. His best 400 time was 51s at 16. He won't have improved 3 sec. Do you see Quincy Wilson improving 3sec on 44x? Or Ovett and Cruz, who both ran 47 at 17. They didn't improve 3 sec. Maybe 1 sec. Ingebrigtsen will be lucky to get below 50s.
Lyles has the speed and 400 experience, but Ingebrigtsen has the endurance. I think Jakob wins it, but it would be very close. Noah Lyles probably goes out hard, and Jakob will have to kick it in the last 100. After seeing Duplantis vs. Warholm in the 100, I was wondering if there could be another cool exhibition race, and I think this would be it. Unite the worlds of sprinting, and mid-distance running!
Noah would win it. Now,if it was a 600 meter race,that might be more interesting.
No, he doesn't. His best 400 time was 51s at 16. He won't have improved 3 sec. Do you see Quincy Wilson improving 3sec on 44x? Or Ovett and Cruz, who both ran 47 at 17. They didn't improve 3 sec. Maybe 1 sec. Ingebrigtsen will be lucky to get below 50s.
Jakob goes 49 low very best case scenario. Speed doesn't like to increase when you slam tons of miles and become an aerobic monster. It increases when you make a significant effort to develop it, which he doesn't really do.
No, he doesn't. His best 400 time was 51s at 16. He won't have improved 3 sec. Do you see Quincy Wilson improving 3sec on 44x? Or Ovett and Cruz, who both ran 47 at 17. They didn't improve 3 sec. Maybe 1 sec. Ingebrigtsen will be lucky to get below 50s.
LOL. 3:27 guys are not low 50s guys. I was a low 50s guy and never broke 4.
No, he doesn't. His best 400 time was 51s at 16. He won't have improved 3 sec. Do you see Quincy Wilson improving 3sec on 44x? Or Ovett and Cruz, who both ran 47 at 17. They didn't improve 3 sec. Maybe 1 sec. Ingebrigtsen will be lucky to get below 50s.
LOL. 3:27 guys are not low 50s guys. I was a low 50s guy and never broke 4.
400 speed has very little to do with 1500m time. Once you get to ~50s, it stops mattering unless you're talking about closing speed in an international sit and kick.
It doesn't matter that you ran low 50s and never broke 4. I knew a sub 4 guy who could maaaaybe run 52 on a good day, and he wasn't running a sub 13:00 5k like Jakob either.
No, he doesn't. His best 400 time was 51s at 16. He won't have improved 3 sec. Do you see Quincy Wilson improving 3sec on 44x? Or Ovett and Cruz, who both ran 47 at 17. They didn't improve 3 sec. Maybe 1 sec. Ingebrigtsen will be lucky to get below 50s.
He ran 51.03 at 16. There are countless examples of guys who were able to improve their 400 speed by 2.3 seconds after the age of 16. Asking whether Quincy Wilson will improve to 41.xx is a ridiculous comparison and you know it. How many kids are able to improve from 51 to 49 between their junior and senior years of HS?—lots.
Also that 51.03 was a one-off the same day he ran an 8:00 3k. Good chance he was already capable of 50-low, at 16, with a 3:56 mile PR. As a 3:26 runner, yes, there’s a fair chance he’s capable of sub-49 open (in a relay it would be a slam dunk IMO).
The 61.8 500 posited by calfshrug seems a bit quick at 49.44 pace, but running under 62.50 (50.00 pace) seems reasonable. Anyway, Lyles would win at 500m but I’d probably back Ingebrigtsen at 600, which would be a better race.
No, he doesn't. His best 400 time was 51s at 16. He won't have improved 3 sec. Do you see Quincy Wilson improving 3sec on 44x? Or Ovett and Cruz, who both ran 47 at 17. They didn't improve 3 sec. Maybe 1 sec. Ingebrigtsen will be lucky to get below 50s.
LOL. 3:27 guys are not low 50s guys. I was a low 50s guy and never broke 4.
You didn't have their endurance. Elliott never broke 50s but ran 3:35 on old shoes in cinders. Ingebrigtsen is probably somewhere between 49-50.
No, he doesn't. His best 400 time was 51s at 16. He won't have improved 3 sec. Do you see Quincy Wilson improving 3sec on 44x? Or Ovett and Cruz, who both ran 47 at 17. They didn't improve 3 sec. Maybe 1 sec. Ingebrigtsen will be lucky to get below 50s.
He ran 51.03 at 16. There are countless examples of guys who were able to improve their 400 speed by 2.3 seconds after the age of 16. Asking whether Quincy Wilson will improve to 41.xx is a ridiculous comparison and you know it. How many kids are able to improve from 51 to 49 between their junior and senior years of HS?—lots.
Also that 51.03 was a one-off the same day he ran an 8:00 3k. Good chance he was already capable of 50-low, at 16, with a 3:56 mile PR. As a 3:26 runner, yes, there’s a fair chance he’s capable of sub-49 open (in a relay it would be a slam dunk IMO).
The 61.8 500 posited by calfshrug seems a bit quick at 49.44 pace, but running under 62.50 (50.00 pace) seems reasonable. Anyway, Lyles would win at 500m but I’d probably back Ingebrigtsen at 600, which would be a better race.
The particular claim I was responding to had assumed that Ingebrigtsen is at least 3 secs faster over the 400 than he was at 16. For any highly trained athlete - and especially an age prodigy, as Ingebrigtsen was - that is extremely unlikely. He had been training seriously and competing before puberty. I compared him to Wilson to show how unlikely it is for an athlete who has matured young to carve 3secs or more off their best sprint time in their teens (and the 400 is a sprint). Wilson won't - and neither did Ovett and Cruz, who both ran 47 at 17.
Your comparison with other teenagers isn't relevant because of the fact that - unlike most of them - Ingebrigtsen has been training like an elite since puberty. He is not a relative latecomer to the sport. In contrast with endurance, speed is the factor in an athlete that is least amenable to big improvements through training. Sprinters make only the most incremental gains once they have begun serious training, and most of it is achieved through honing their technique.
Jakob is not a naturally fast athlete. It is obvious seeing him race. He has very little acceleration to call on and no real "sprint gear". It is one of the reasons he doesn't bother with the 800, in which he is relatively mediocre - and certainly for a top md athlete. I would bet the house, the car and the dog he is nowhere near as fast over 400 as most he assume he is. As another poster above suggested - 49-low at the best.
If he was capable of 48 he would be able to run sub-1:43 for the 800. He would have shown that at some point in his career - as Cram did. I can't see it.
This post was edited 7 minutes after it was posted.
He ran 51.03 at 16. There are countless examples of guys who were able to improve their 400 speed by 2.3 seconds after the age of 16. Asking whether Quincy Wilson will improve to 41.xx is a ridiculous comparison and you know it. How many kids are able to improve from 51 to 49 between their junior and senior years of HS?—lots.
Also that 51.03 was a one-off the same day he ran an 8:00 3k. Good chance he was already capable of 50-low, at 16, with a 3:56 mile PR. As a 3:26 runner, yes, there’s a fair chance he’s capable of sub-49 open (in a relay it would be a slam dunk IMO).
The 61.8 500 posited by calfshrug seems a bit quick at 49.44 pace, but running under 62.50 (50.00 pace) seems reasonable. Anyway, Lyles would win at 500m but I’d probably back Ingebrigtsen at 600, which would be a better race.
The particular claim I was responding to had assumed that Ingebrigtsen is at least 3 secs faster over the 400 than he was at 16. For any highly trained athlete - and especially an age prodigy, as Ingebrigtsen was - that is extremely unlikely. He had been training seriously and competing before puberty. I compared him to Wilson to show how unlikely it is for an athlete who has matured young to carve 3secs or more off their best sprint time in their teens (and the 400 is a sprint). Wilson won't - and neither did Ovett and Cruz, who both ran 47 at 17.
Your comparison with other teenagers isn't relevant because of the fact that - unlike most of them - Ingebrigtsen has been training like an elite since puberty. He is not a relative latecomer to the sport. In contrast with endurance, speed is the factor in an athlete that is least amenable to big improvements through training. Sprinters make only the most incremental gains once they have begun serious training, and most of it is achieved through honing their technique.
Jakob is not a naturally fast athlete. It is obvious seeing him race. He has very little acceleration to call on and no real "sprint gear". It is one of the reasons he doesn't bother with the 800, in which he is relatively mediocre - and certainly for a top md athlete. I would bet the house, the car and the dog he is nowhere near as fast over 400 as most he assume he is. As another poster above suggested - 49-low at the best.
If he was capable of 48 he would be able to run sub-1:43 for the 800. He would have shown that at some point in his career - as Cram did. I can't see it.
I ran 51 high as a 15 year old, and my 5k time was probably 25 minutes if I had to guess, I probably would have had to walk some of it at that point in my career. Went to college, kept running. Got my 5k down to 15:30 and focused on the 800. My 400 was a 49 mid split on relays on a good day. I was actively working on my speed, not loads, but we did some.
Point being, I'm likely naturally speedier than Jakob, although clearly nowhere near as talented. I went from zero endurance to moderate endurance and my 400m barely improved, and lots of that improvement was just puberty.
He ran 51.03 at 16. There are countless examples of guys who were able to improve their 400 speed by 2.3 seconds after the age of 16. Asking whether Quincy Wilson will improve to 41.xx is a ridiculous comparison and you know it. How many kids are able to improve from 51 to 49 between their junior and senior years of HS?—lots.
Also that 51.03 was a one-off the same day he ran an 8:00 3k. Good chance he was already capable of 50-low, at 16, with a 3:56 mile PR. As a 3:26 runner, yes, there’s a fair chance he’s capable of sub-49 open (in a relay it would be a slam dunk IMO).
The 61.8 500 posited by calfshrug seems a bit quick at 49.44 pace, but running under 62.50 (50.00 pace) seems reasonable. Anyway, Lyles would win at 500m but I’d probably back Ingebrigtsen at 600, which would be a better race.
The particular claim I was responding to had assumed that Ingebrigtsen is at least 3 secs faster over the 400 than he was at 16. For any highly trained athlete - and especially an age prodigy, as Ingebrigtsen was - that is extremely unlikely. He had been training seriously and competing before puberty. I compared him to Wilson to show how unlikely it is for an athlete who has matured young to carve 3secs or more off their best sprint time in their teens (and the 400 is a sprint). Wilson won't - and neither did Ovett and Cruz, who both ran 47 at 17.
Your comparison with other teenagers isn't relevant because of the fact that - unlike most of them - Ingebrigtsen has been training like an elite since puberty. He is not a relative latecomer to the sport. In contrast with endurance, speed is the factor in an athlete that is least amenable to big improvements through training. Sprinters make only the most incremental gains once they have begun serious training, and most of it is achieved through honing their technique.
Jakob is not a naturally fast athlete. It is obvious seeing him race. He has very little acceleration to call on and no real "sprint gear". It is one of the reasons he doesn't bother with the 800, in which he is relatively mediocre - and certainly for a top md athlete. I would bet the house, the car and the dog he is nowhere near as fast over 400 as most he assume he is. As another poster above suggested - 49-low at the best.
If he was capable of 48 he would be able to run sub-1:43 for the 800. He would have shown that at some point in his career - as Cram did. I can't see it.
You can’t get through your first sentence without being dishonest. The posters claim was that Jakob is now capable of 2.3 seconds faster than he ran at 16, in a theoretical maxed-out performance that his one-off 51.03 was not necessarily. Nothing about “at least 3 seconds.” 48.7 very well may be too fast but it’s not completely outlandish, and it’s not far from 49-low. Your Quincy Wilson comparison was disingenuous and silly, and no amount of anecdotal examples of Herb Elliott or random individual posters is going to tell us whether he’s good for 48.9 or 49.5.
Your assertion that if he could run 48.99 then he would be capable of 1:42.99 is suspect speculation. Parlaying 48.99 speed into back-to-back average 51.49s is unlikely for anyone, even a Jakob type. I am someone who believes he’s capable of 1:44-something in the right 800 if he cared to.
You know, I have no problem whatsoever with guessing he has 49-low open 400 ability. That seems about right. Like you said, he would struggle with the acceleration, so maybe he’d run 49.25 in an open 4 and 48.75 on a relay.
No, he doesn't. His best 400 time was 51s at 16. He won't have improved 3 sec. Do you see Quincy Wilson improving 3sec on 44x? Or Ovett and Cruz, who both ran 47 at 17. They didn't improve 3 sec. Maybe 1 sec. Ingebrigtsen will be lucky to get below 50s.
Seb Coe ran 51.xx as a well-trained 16 year old. He then split 45.x as a 21 year old.
I’m not saying this to be argumentative with anyone, just using this thread a platform to continue to highlight Seb Coe’s drug usage.