Our race preview is now up and we've been told that the pacing lights will be set for 3:30. We will try to confirm that at the pre-race press conference which has been delayed as Jakob's flight was delayed.
Will we see a world lead (sub 3:26.73), possibly with Nuguse right behind Ingebrigtsen like at Pre last year in the mile? Would love to see Nuguse break 3:27 if Ingebrigtsen goes 3:26 in Brussels, but he won a 3:29 race in Zurich which doesn't mean he's in 3:26 fitness especially since his PB is currently 3:27.80 from the Olympics, probably after a peak. Though, Nuguse did run 3:43 in the mile this time last year, so we'll see if he's still in top fitness.
After Ingebrigtsen's 3K record he may be able to beat his 1500 PB given he's fully healthy & rested, the pacing is good, and the weather cooperates. Ingebrigtsen is probably still 1-2 more personal bests away from breaking El G's world record though. Needs a couple more 3:26.XX's before 3:25.XX.
It doesn’t necessarily work that way. You are saying Jakob needs one or two more personal bests at 1500m before actually getting the world record. This is a misconception. Jakob didn’t need that at 2 miles. Jakob isn’t really equipped to run 3:25xx. It is not that he needs more personal bests.
I bought bread from a man in Brussels He was six-foot-four and full of muscle I said, "Do you speak-a my language?" He just smiled and gave me a Vegemite sandwich And he said "I come from a land down under Where beer does flow and men chunder Can't you hear, can't you hear the thunder? You better run, you better take cover, yeah"!
My question is I met him in Brussels but do you think he was Australian?
Will we see a world lead (sub 3:26.73), possibly with Nuguse right behind Ingebrigtsen like at Pre last year in the mile? Would love to see Nuguse break 3:27 if Ingebrigtsen goes 3:26 in Brussels, but he won a 3:29 race in Zurich which doesn't mean he's in 3:26 fitness especially since his PB is currently 3:27.80 from the Olympics, probably after a peak. Though, Nuguse did run 3:43 in the mile this time last year, so we'll see if he's still in top fitness.
After Ingebrigtsen's 3K record he may be able to beat his 1500 PB given he's fully healthy & rested, the pacing is good, and the weather cooperates. Ingebrigtsen is probably still 1-2 more personal bests away from breaking El G's world record though. Needs a couple more 3:26.XX's before 3:25.XX.
Thoughts?
I strongly doubt we will see a WR in Brussels. I think Jakob's sickness took a lot of out of him after a very very stressful year. Obviously I have no way of knowing his system or fitness but that assumption seems pretty reasonable. I also think that while Jakob may be capable of running a WR on a perfect day with a perfect pace, I don't think he has shown to be able to run in the 3:26.5 range consistently, which I feel he would need to demonstrate as a 1500/5000 type runner to give him a serious shot at 3:25 now at the end of the season with everything that has happened this year.
However, I also think it's safe to assume he's recovered from his sickness well enough to run well, and will run something very fast - I think at least low 3:27s (3:27.1-2), quite possibly a world lead (3:26.5ish). I also think Hocker will not be the first American - Nuguse will, and I think as with last year, he will be right with Jakob. Assuming a fast race, I would not be surprised to see the American record go down.
Does anyone know if Laros is running? I would love to see him take another shot at the U20 WR.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
Josh won't be in Brussels so no, nobody will be knocking on the door of El G's beachfront souk in Rabat this week. Maybe next year, Josh will be knocking it down
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It doesn’t necessarily work that way. You are saying Jakob needs one or two more personal bests at 1500m before actually getting the world record. This is a misconception. Jakob didn’t need that at 2 miles. Jakob isn’t really equipped to run 3:25xx. It is not that he needs more personal bests.
I agree with the first part, in that Jakob doesn't need to run progressively faster before breaking the WR. But.... "Jakob isn't really equipped..."??? What??? When he ran his 3:26.73 at Monaco, he hadn't yet peaked for the season as evidenced by the 7:17 3000m WR days ago. He has all the tools he needs right now.
When running a PB or a WR, you don't know for sure you can run it until you do. Consider Hocker. Many were saying that he couldn't break 3:30. Then he ran 3:27.65 in Paris. What the OP stated is better: if the conditions are right, if Jakob is healthy, if the pacing is right and if he just has that special kind of day, He could run in 3:25.mid range. I would not feel comfortable saying it could be any faster. But it depends on the day and unusual circumstances. Anything can happen. He could also run 3:29 and come in fourth again. who really knows? But at least Jakob has shown consistency. "...isn't really equipped...?" What???
I dreamt that Jakob ran a 3:25.26 the other night, just putting that out there
That would be insane. If it does happen this week I don't think he is going to run such a low 3:25 though, probably .8x or .9x. 3:25.2 seems like the type of time that would happen next year after a healthy build up, if ever.
It doesn’t necessarily work that way. You are saying Jakob needs one or two more personal bests at 1500m before actually getting the world record. This is a misconception. Jakob didn’t need that at 2 miles. Jakob isn’t really equipped to run 3:25xx. It is not that he needs more personal bests.
I agree with the first part, in that Jakob doesn't need to run progressively faster before breaking the WR. But.... "Jakob isn't really equipped..."??? What??? When he ran his 3:26.73 at Monaco, he hadn't yet peaked for the season as evidenced by the 7:17 3000m WR days ago. He has all the tools he needs right now.
When running a PB or a WR, you don't know for sure you can run it until you do. Consider Hocker. Many were saying that he couldn't break 3:30. Then he ran 3:27.65 in Paris. What the OP stated is better: if the conditions are right, if Jakob is healthy, if the pacing is right and if he just has that special kind of day, He could run in 3:25.mid range. I would not feel comfortable saying it could be any faster. But it depends on the day and unusual circumstances. Anything can happen. He could also run 3:29 and come in fourth again. who really knows? But at least Jakob has shown consistency. "...isn't really equipped...?" What???
The comparison to Cole Hocker seems a bit disingenuous. Jakob has run many many more races optimized for times than Hocker. We had no real solid idea what Hocker could run in a fast paced race since he's done that so few times before while in good shape. Jakob on the other had has gone after fast times in nearly ideal races several times each year the past few years. We have a much better idea of what he's capable of.
I think what Oofe means by equipped is if Jakob has the physical talent for it. Jakob's consistency is very impressive, but it's a different talent than running one 3:25. Jakob is a VERY strength oriented runner for a 1500m guy and I have doubts Jakob has the foot speed to go significantly under his current PR. Jakob's 3:26.7 isn't necessarily close to 3:26.00. That's a huge improvement when talking about times that fast. Rudisha grinded away for years in the 800m trying to chip milliseconds off his WR.
I agree with the first part, in that Jakob doesn't need to run progressively faster before breaking the WR. But.... "Jakob isn't really equipped..."??? What??? When he ran his 3:26.73 at Monaco, he hadn't yet peaked for the season as evidenced by the 7:17 3000m WR days ago. He has all the tools he needs right now.
When running a PB or a WR, you don't know for sure you can run it until you do. Consider Hocker. Many were saying that he couldn't break 3:30. Then he ran 3:27.65 in Paris. What the OP stated is better: if the conditions are right, if Jakob is healthy, if the pacing is right and if he just has that special kind of day, He could run in 3:25.mid range. I would not feel comfortable saying it could be any faster. But it depends on the day and unusual circumstances. Anything can happen. He could also run 3:29 and come in fourth again. who really knows? But at least Jakob has shown consistency. "...isn't really equipped...?" What???
The comparison to Cole Hocker seems a bit disingenuous. Jakob has run many many more races optimized for times than Hocker. We had no real solid idea what Hocker could run in a fast paced race since he's done that so few times before while in good shape. Jakob on the other had has gone after fast times in nearly ideal races several times each year the past few years. We have a much better idea of what he's capable of.
I think what Oofe means by equipped is if Jakob has the physical talent for it. Jakob's consistency is very impressive, but it's a different talent than running one 3:25. Jakob is a VERY strength oriented runner for a 1500m guy and I have doubts Jakob has the foot speed to go significantly under his current PR. Jakob's 3:26.7 isn't necessarily close to 3:26.00. That's a huge improvement when talking about times that fast. Rudisha grinded away for years in the 800m trying to chip milliseconds off his WR.
Why does everyone forget that Jakob missed 3 months of training in his buildup this year? I agree everything has to be perfect for him and he will probably only barely get the record if he does, but 3:26.73 clearly is not his limit. Everyone keeps saying "he can't run much faster" and he continues to run faster every year, chipping away incrementally. I think 2025/2026 will be his last chance to do it though, if he doesn't have any injuries in the next year I think he will do it in Monaco next year and finally get the monkey off his back.
Even if nobody breaks 3:26, if Jakob can repeat a 3:26 performance, he would join El Guerrouj as the only other man to go under 3:27 twice
I think this is a salient point that is really overlooked. Not only would he be the only man to do it twice, it would be the third time it's ever been done in a season as El G only did it twice in 98 and 02.
What's the takeaway? No matter how good or great you are it's really, really freaking hard to do even once, let alone multiple times. I would be surprised this race went sub 3.27 and I would be absolutely stunned if it even was in the ballpark of the WR.
But here is the nice/slightly boring thing - we are going to know exactly what the intentions are when the wavelight data is released because these days we can predict almost to the tenth of a second how at least the first 800m is going to be run no matter what his fitness level is (as we were able to do in Monaco, Lausanne, Zurich....). So if we see 55.6, 1.51.5, 2.46.0 from the lights (wait - isn't this a "final", why the f--k do we have pacing?) - then we know Jakob wants his comfort zone 56.0, 1.51.7, 2.46.7 and we best case might get close to a 3.27.0 clocking give or take a few tenths either side of it. The only chance we see even a WR attempt is if the pacing is 55.0, 1.50.4, 2.45.6 - something like that and we haven't even see anything close to this commitment from him yet.
Final point, as with Zurich (which didn't happen), I think winning this race takes priority over time. I think this matters to him and I think that taking on the risk of going after the WR, or even a super quick time, at this point in the season after all these races and efforts is too high a risk and understandably so.