Lausanne DL 1500m

Ingebrigtsen odds to:

Win - 50%

PR - 25%

WR - 5%

No WR. Jakob runs 3:26.xx and wins by ~1.5 seconds.

“Won’t show up” as in he will not be able to run a 3:26-27?

or as in he will not run a race that isn’t paced / wave lighted for sub 3:26?

I don't think Hocker will be able to win 2 in a row.

Win - 85%

PR - 35%

WR - 10%

The more I look at the schedule, the more I think he is aiming towards going all out at Silesia in the 3k for that wr, and using Lausanne as a tune-up meet.

This isn’t me saying he can’t break the 1500 world record. I think he can, and I think he needs to take a stab at it later this year with the fitness he has. He just doesn’t have that opportunity available in the 3k, and that field is formidable to help push that pace after the pacers drop out.

With that all being said, it still wouldn’t shock me if he went all out at Lausanne if the conditions ended up being perfect. It’s Jakob, so he could try and go for 2 wr in 3 days.

He is working out with his brother Kristoffer in sandnes right now. Without preparing at altitude, can he really be expected to run a wr?

He has already done all the work needed at altitude. Now he is fine-tuning and maintaining his level of fitness and speed, which can be done in Sandnes.

How does it work when requesting the rabbits pace? Does everyone in the field put in a requested pace, and the fastest pace is the one that gets assigned? Or do they look at strictly at the gold standard runners (Jakob and Hocker) and those two determine it?

With all due respect to Hocker’s gold medal, the pace will be set based on Jakob’s request.

No. The altitude wins this one.

First of all, don't forget Jakob's 3:43/7:23 double for the mile/3000m at the dimaond league final in Eugene last year. This shows he is capable of running a very fast 3000 after a fast 1500 a couple of days before.

Secondly, we know Zurich is being hyped up this year and I personally think Kerr will go after a super time. If Jakob truly is in world record shape - which I'm sure he himself knows better than all - then he should go for it in Lausanne because he will then have less pressure in Zurich. He can let Kerr, Hocker and Nuguse go hard while using them as rabbits the entire race, because I'm pretty sure Kerr will go after the lights regardless of whether Jakob goes from the front or not - especially if Jakob gets the WR in Lausanne.

This is all speculation though, all I know for certain is that he is going for the 3000m world record in Silesia.

Both Cheruiyots are out of the field, and we are looking at an entry list of 14 with Zan Rudolph pacing. Very manageable especially since Vermuelen, McCann and Lobalu will probably run from the back.

Yeah I just looked half an hour ago and was glad to see a smaller field. Is McSweyn the 2nd pacer? I was looking for Sisk but I guess he is only doing Silesia.

Looks to me like just one pacer (Rudolph)

does Hocker sit right behind Jakob or does he chill around 4-5 like he did in the Olympics?

He will probably be towards the front, but it kinda depends. I'd suspect 4-5 because he can pick off McSweyn/Hoare/Nader/Habz/Mills who might fight hard for a spot there even though it's more likely they run 3:32 than 3:28.

How can we watch this live in the US? Looks like peacock is only showing it tomorrow. I'll pay a reasonable amount for a service to do this, and do have a VPN.

George mills isn’t the type to start in the front, so I would eliminate him. I think Hobbs is the type to start out front for sure considering that’s the style he’s adopted to since world indoors. Hocker went out in 1:52.2 at the Olympics so maybe right at 1:52.0 or right under would be fine for him regardless of place. I know Hocker will be calm no matter where he is at because of his confidence in his kick. Just don’t get on the rail behind Mcsweyn with a lap to go lol.

For sure he will be going first 400m slower than in Paris, and behind the rabbits it should feel very easy for him (if he feels as good as in Paris.) Ideally if a rabbit can take him to 1100m then he will start accelerating 400m out and I guess we'll see what that means. Again, if he feels as good as in Paris, then low 26 is on the cards, which also means 3:25.97 could happen.