With the season starting very soon, what are peoples' predictions on how this XC season for the Northwest (WA, OR, ID, MT)? Strongest top 5/individual runners? Most likely NXN qualifiers/wild cards? What do you think is in store?
Crater and Jesuit top 2 in boys, Lincoln and Jesuit top 2 in girls.
Jack Sheesley, Nate Stadtlander, Vincent Recupero, Owen Powell and either Hayden Boaz or Zafer Corcelle are the individuals on the boys side. None of the CDA boys qualify.
Someone mentioned in the Idaho thread that CDA’s #4 (Rietze) is hurt and could miss the whole season.
If that happens, there will be LOTS of scorers from other teams between CDA’s #3 and 4. This is not the deepest team. Heule ran a sub-10 but we need to see how this translates to XC; this will be his first year on varsity.
Someone mentioned in the Idaho thread that CDA’s #4 (Rietze) is hurt and could miss the whole season.
If that happens, there will be LOTS of scorers from other teams between CDA’s #3 and 4. This is not the deepest team. Heule ran a sub-10 but we need to see how this translates to XC; this will be his first year on varsity.
Kyle Rohlinger also ran a 6:15 2k steeple and really focused on the 300mh, but still ran 4:38 in one of the two attempts he had at the distance.
If we are going to talk about Rocky's 4:32-4:35 boys that ran the event 10 times like they can possibly push Rocky over the top then CDA probably deserves the same benefit of the doubt. Regardless, CDA is so good at 1-3 that I'm not sure that Rocky does actually beat them.
You have:
4:11/9:02, 4:12/9:12, 4:15/9:18, 4:38/6:15 steeple in addition to freshmen boys that have run 4:34/9:54, 4:45, 4:53, 4:53
vs.
4:11/9:11, 4:31/9:34, 4:26/9:43 (converted), 4:32, 4:35/9:51, 4:36/9:51 (converted), and 4:41/10:04.
CDA might have 3 boys in the top 12-15 while Rocky might have 1, and might only get 1 or 2 other boys into the top 50. CDA could be leading Rocky by 70+ points after 3 runners.
does anyone think Franklin has a shot at qualifying for NXN at-large or doing well otherwise? theyre losing 3 of their top 7 from last year but they still have Zafer Courcelle, Brennan McEwan, and several freshman who had a solid track season
CDA should dominate the boys side. They've been on fire last season and are only going to be better. Best team in Idaho history and it wasn't even close.
We'll see what happens between Lincoln and Jesuit on the girls side. Gallatin could be sneaky for an upset.
does anyone think Franklin has a shot at qualifying for NXN at-large or doing well otherwise? theyre losing 3 of their top 7 from last year but they still have Zafer Courcelle, Brennan McEwan, and several freshman who had a solid track season
Franklin also returns McQuillen who was their #4 runner last season (#3 nonsenior).
They also return Mardon (incoming Jr, 10:07 2-mile at OR relays) and Gallagher (incoming Fr, 10:02 2-mile at OR relays). They could very well be their 4th and 5th runners).
It will be tough for them to make it back to NXN, but it’s not to say they have to be counted out
does anyone think Franklin has a shot at qualifying for NXN at-large or doing well otherwise? theyre losing 3 of their top 7 from last year but they still have Zafer Courcelle, Brennan McEwan, and several freshman who had a solid track season
No. Franklin will be pretty good..probably win the PIL, but their only chance of NXN is at-large and they are way way off the hunt for that this year.
Boise and Mountain View (ID) will be good. Probably top 10 in region.
Boise has 9:03, 4:26/9:46, 4:31, 4:35 and 4:40/10:01 (freshman) returning.
Also have freshmen or sophomores that have run 10:05 and 10:08 returning.
Mountain View returns a 4:21/9:27 boy and then 4 guys that ran 4:27, 4:30, 4:32 and 4:39 last year as sophomores. You gotta think that if those boys ran at sea level, they might have four sub 4:30 boys.
Good chance Idaho has 4 teams in the top 10. Sleeper teams to also have a shot to place in the top 10 would be Centennial (#5 guy was a 10:09 guy last year) and Timberline, even without Ihmels.
For girls, Boise, Rocky, Timberline will all be very good. Next tier of Idaho teams are Capital, Owyhee, and Eagle but there's a pretty sizable gap between those groups.
does anyone think Franklin has a shot at qualifying for NXN at-large or doing well otherwise? theyre losing 3 of their top 7 from last year but they still have Zafer Courcelle, Brennan McEwan, and several freshman who had a solid track season
No. Franklin will be pretty good..probably win the PIL, but their only chance of NXN is at-large and they are way way off the hunt for that this year.
Meh, Franklin probably won’t even get top 4 at NXR.
Crater, Jesuit, CDA, and Rocky Mountain will all be better than them
Very unlikely that any Washington teams go to NXN, but Sehome and Kamiakin look pretty legit. Kamiakin does really well at the end of the season and this year they have the best team since 2019; they return almost everyone from last year. Their #1 is a senior who has been #1 on the team since sophomore year and he has an older brother who was part of their 2018 & 2019 NXN teams.
Very unlikely that any Washington teams go to NXN, but Sehome and Kamiakin look pretty legit. Kamiakin does really well at the end of the season and this year they have the best team since 2019; they return almost everyone from last year. Their #1 is a senior who has been #1 on the team since sophomore year and he has an older brother who was part of their 2018 & 2019 NXN teams.
Issaquah also returns most of their boys. If Mcintosh is healthy this season they will be one of the top teams in Washington. Though Issaquah seems to not perform to well at NXR relative to their state performances.
Arlington also returns a strong team. I think a Washington team has a chance of breaking into the top 3. But they are outside shots.
Boise received a 10:06 3200 transfer from California - Michael Restuccia, JR
I feel like Boise is being underrated in the race for 2nd at the Idaho 6A state meet. I feel like it's plausible that they get 2nd at state but are the 3rd Idaho team at NXR.
CDA will destroy Crater at Woodbridge. CDA will put 5 in before Craters 3rd. Crater will put two ahead of CDA number 1. But it won’t be enough this year to win. Battle in the Northwest this year will be CDA vs Jesuit. Jesuit has a loaded Junior class that sound like have had a solid summer of base training. They will be better than last. CDA will be good as well. Don’t see Crater in the mix even if they go 1-2 at NXR.
CDA will destroy Crater at Woodbridge. CDA will put 5 in before Craters 3rd. Crater will put two ahead of CDA number 1. But it won’t be enough this year to win. Battle in the Northwest this year will be CDA vs Jesuit. Jesuit has a loaded Junior class that sound like have had a solid summer of base training. They will be better than last. CDA will be good as well. Don’t see Crater in the mix even if they go 1-2 at NXR.
Nah crater is the #1 team in the northwest. Mercer Island is up there too