Would Beatrice Chebet have won the 800 today?

nice job on the stupid f**king thread

Kipyegon would crush Chebet in an 800.

Hodgkinson would dominate either in an 800.

Thanks. What do you think she could run for 800 and 1500? Don’t you think a more even paced 800 would suit her as an endurance athlete?

The closing splits were mind blowing. I had similar questions.

"Mind-blowing" means doped. If not then how "mind-blowing" would those splits have been if doped?

1:56

3:51

I don’t know what indication there is that Kipyegon would “crush” Chebet in an 800 other than saying: Kipyegon has run 800s and Chebet has no listed mark. Chebet has insane closing speed and the strength to close a 28:54 10k in 63. Kipyegon, Hassan and Tsegay all have 1:56/1:57 800 PRs and 3:49-3:51 1500 PRs and I believe Chebet has more or less just as much potential at mid-distance as those runners.

If you’re going to state that Chebet would be crushed by Kipyegon who in turn would be dominated by Keely, please submit the kind of 800 times you think they’re capable of respectively. I’m curious what you think.

There’s no good reason to believe either Kipyegon or Chebet could run 1:54.6 like Keely has, and Keely would definitely have the upper hand in a race that goes out hard through 800 as she has likely 51-low 400 capacity that they lack. However, it’s really hard to deny that the Kenyans could be competitive in a 1:56/1:57 race that goes out in 58.5 with the second 200 in 31.3, which is only 3:54.75 1500m pace, based on their closing splits in the 5k. I think Chebet could have won silver if she’d run reasonably well tactically.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a male 5k/10k runner who runs 28:54 be only able to run 1:56 or 1:57.

For those aerobic monsters, they may have a faster 5k/10k last lap speed than their 800m speed.

Lagat could close a 5k in 51, beating Bekele in the process, but his 800m PR was nowhere near 1:42-3. I think for Chebet and Kipyegon, they would run somewhere between 1:56-57, with someone pacing them. I don't think it would be good enough to challenge Keely, though I believe they would've medalled.

btw, I think Kipyegon last night made a tactical blunder by taking it out early and let Chebet sit on her and enjoy all the drafting before the last 100m.

So the thread is interesting. Chebet has the fabulous 2:33 final 1000m, but of course she ran the first 4000m at 29:47.75 10000m pace, and of course she has run 28:54, so it is the incredible strength (stamina) which served her so well. Now I would for sure agree that if she had a running start she could run 1:56. I have little doubt about that. So likely she can run 1:57. But then Keely has run 1:54.61, Moraa has run 1:56.03 and Duguma ran her best of 1:57.15 in the final, so being able to run 1:57 doesn’t necessarily get you a medal, but you’re in the mix.

Nice work on the numbers. I was struck by their (KH & BC) similar form in the final 100m: smooth, powerful strides; no visible flailing or straining; minimal head tilt and torso rotation; relaxed face. We know Hodgkinson can finish faster, but Chebet might generate even greater turnover closing an 800.

Seems like MJ is positioned perfectly to cash in on such speculation. A Grand Slam Track short distance (800/1500) lineup of Mu, Hodgkinson, Chebet, Kipyegon, Welteji, Mackay? Yes, please.

Thanks. This is very reasonable.

Really, I don’t think Chebet would have beaten Keely and that’s not the real point of the thread. The real points I wanted to emphasize are that Chebet probably has historically great 1500 ability, and the closing splits were unreal.

(Armstronglivs: I don’t believe these athletes are clean but as long as they don’t test positive they’re in the same boat as the rest of the world’s top runners, and there’s no way of really knowing who’s dirty and who’s not and to what extent, and that’s not the topic of this thread. You’ll probably b1tch about me deleting your comments but they’re off topic and complete nothing-burgers. Actually, burgers usually have some meaty substance—your comments are less than nothing-burgers).

I’m sure some are flatly rejecting the premise of the thread because on the men’s side and at HS/NCAA levels we don’t see 5k/10k runners running super competitive 800 times, but the situation is different for uber-elite women of the last several years:

-Dibaba and Kipyegon closing 1500 championships in 1:57 is not unlike men closing in 1:44/1:45.

-The top 4 women at 10k currently are also 4 of the 5-6 fastest at 1500, in my opinion (Chebet, Tsegay, Kipyegon, Hassan). Even an in-form Gidey must be capable of a very world class 1500 (under the American record I think), and she’s like Aregawi to Chebet’s Farah in terms of speed.

-Closing in 4:00.X, 2:00.X, 57.6 in a 14:28 race is kinda like the men closing in 3:35, 1:46.X, 51.9 or so in a 13:00 race. Imagine El Guerrouj’s Athens 1500m splits being run at the end of a 13:00 5k.

I think we have to take into consideration the contribution of energy systems. Despite it's only around 15secs, a race that lasts for 1:40ish should be far more anaerobic than high 1:50s, so it would be way harder to close in 1:44/45 on men's side than 1:57 on women's side. Probably more like 1:48. Still, damn impressive, nevertherless.

The last 600 of the 5000 and 800 were about the same time.

Actually I think you have really made an interesting point here, not so much that I wasn’t sort of aware of it, but it makes me wonder why that it is the case. So as you say some of these 5 and 10 female titans could be competitive at 800m, and one reason could be that not enough truly talented 800m runners are getting aerobically strong enough to maximize their 800m potential so then the 5 and 10 female studs who have giant aerobic engines are also quite competitive with the 800m specialists. So then if someone like Athing Mu could stay healthy and committed to get aerobically strong to the point of 3:55ish fitness, and then maybe instead of 49.57 she slows a bit to 50.6, then the combo of 3:55ish and 50.6 might put her at a level that these 5 and 10 gals cannot touch, maybe close to world record territory. Because 1:56-1:57 is quite competitive now, and the aerobic titans can sometimes get there, but they could not touch 1:54 and under.

You make a strong case, as you always do, but there are two issues. The first is the big difference between how those races looked going into the last 400. In the 5K, Kipyegon and Chebet had cleared the rest of the field by the time they hit the bell. They were able to run single file along the rail for most of that last 400 and then have a 1:1 battle over the final stretch.

In the 800, the field was bunched up going into the last lap. Those women were running two- and three-wide. If Chebet was in that field, she would have had to navigate around a lot more women to close that race than she did in the 5K. It would have been much more difficult for Chebet to make the podium in the 800. I don’t think she would have done it.

The second issue is we can’t assume Chebet would have qualified for the 800 final. Ask Jemma Reekie fresh off her 1:55 a couple weeks ago how difficult it was to make the final.

It's a perfectly reasonable question. Many of the top East African women have not been running enough distances. Only the Ethiopian-born Hassan has figured it out.

Let's put it this way, does anybody really believe Duguma would be the most talented Ethiopian, if they all prioritized that distance? It's been a colossal waste. The 800 is perfect for the Ethiopian front running approach. That medal tonight will probably wake up the athletic federation and push more of their top women into the event.

Welteji was their most successful junior 800 runner. But she's simply too passive for that event. Duguma is more barrel chested and assertive. The thin builds and more aggressive nature of the 800 is probably what keeps the Ethiopians away.