- Kerr: waits until 500ish to go then tries to take it from there. Is too confident to leave it later.
- Jacob: don’t take it immediately in hopes that someone else takes it. If this doesn’t happen by 300-400, take it yourself. Make sure to have another gear for the last lap and not just time trial it
- Cheruihot: I actually think he takes it from the first lap. He’s run 3:28 this year but almost didn’t make the final when the semi came down to a kick. This will greatly help Jakob to have a rabbit for the first 800 or so
- Hocker: puts himself in the top ~5 but doesn’t match the moves to get to the front. His hope is that Jacob / Kerr wear each other out and he’s there to pounce the last 200
- Nuguse: he won his heat from the front so may try to do it again. It’s a good way to get top 5 but no way he beats Jakob/Kerr this way, so hopefully he doesn’t do this and instead takes a Hocker-like approach
With a 1:46.4 best for 800, he lacks the speed needed to win in this field. Lost to Wightman and Kerr over homestretch speed. He is clearly the strongest runner, fastest runner in the field but needs to lead from 400m on. Otherwise, he loses (again) in the homestretch. I think we see a WR or very close.
- Kerr: waits until 500ish to go then tries to take it from there. Is too confident to leave it later.
- Jacob: don’t take it immediately in hopes that someone else takes it. If this doesn’t happen by 300-400, take it yourself. Make sure to have another gear for the last lap and not just time trial it
- Cheruihot: I actually think he takes it from the first lap. He’s run 3:28 this year but almost didn’t make the final when the semi came down to a kick. This will greatly help Jakob to have a rabbit for the first 800 or so
- Hocker: puts himself in the top ~5 but doesn’t match the moves to get to the front. His hope is that Jacob / Kerr wear each other out and he’s there to pounce the last 200
- Nuguse: he won his heat from the front so may try to do it again. It’s a good way to get top 5 but no way he beats Jakob/Kerr this way, so hopefully he doesn’t do this and instead takes a Hocker-like approach
thoughts?
I don’t think Tim takes it out. He hasn’t looked good through the rounds and hasn’t take a race out in years. It’s wishful thinking for Jakob fans.
I think the semi final was very eye opening. The race went out in 60+, and 5 people from one heat were able close in WR pave the last 1100m. Once you add in heat 2, I think 8-9 people can close in 2:46 if it’s slow enough to start.
I think Jakob is best served running at least a 56 on lap one. He needs to put some fatigue in everybody’s legs.
Komen and Cheruiyot take it from the gun, Jakob walks off the line and comes around in the first 300 to try and take the lead if it's slow or slots in behind the Kenyans if the pace is good enough. Kerr, Hocker and Nuguse sit on Jakob who squeezes t every 100m. That's how it stays until 1200. Nuguse tries to push from there as he knows he can't kick with the other three, Jakob pushes to keep him behind, Kerr and Hocker bide their time. Komen and Cheruiyot are done after this move. Kerr kicks from 200, Hocker waits until 120-100. Not sure who wins but the top three are Kerr, Hocker, and Jakob.
Jakob opens first 200m in even 100s in 29 as a warm up, while everyone else stings their legs in 27 (13+14) then Jakob takes a lead and (tries) to run last 1300m in 3:26 pace. If he is able to, he wins. If not, he might be 3rd.
My guess is, Cole will watch Josh and follow his moves. And Hobbs will stay on Cole. Yared will follow Jakob since that's how he ran mile AR.
This post was edited 31 seconds after it was posted.
Yared may ease into the lead at the start, just to keep clear of trouble. Jakob eases to the front at 300 or 500. He runs each 100 faster as race progresses. Kerr and Hocker close by. Tim in the hunt. Jakob and Kerr get a wee gap on the last lap. Hocker's midnight express kick mows 'em down for the gold. (This fan's fantasy?)
Jakob opens first 200m in even 100s in 29 as a warm up, while everyone else stings their legs in 27 (13+14) then Jakob takes a lead and (tries) to run last 1300m in 3:26 pace. If he is able to, he wins. If not, he might be 3rd.
My guess is, Cole will watch Josh and follow his moves. And Hobbs will stay on Cole. Yared will follow Jakob since that's how he ran mile AR.
Honestly, this is about as good a take as you could make. I love it.
The pattern these championships has been Jakob essentially "shortening" his races to 1300-1350m by simply jogging out of the gate and letting the field accelerate hard and jostle to find ultimately meaningless position after 150m. He has then just made his way back to the pack and maintained his tempo as he then passes the field, rendering everything they did pointless and costing them energy.
Here is why this could also work very well in this final.
1) The field is obviously nervous and excited as heck - someone in is going to bolt off the line and drag people with them
2) They all know what's going to eventually happen (Jakob taking the lead and driving it) so after that initial excitement phase the field will slow right down and be waiting for Jakob to assume control which plays even further into his strategy.
This being said, I think Josh is very savvy and very confident - and I think he also has a very good idea of what Jakob is trying to do and will have a plan to counter it. I also don't think he jumps off the line and I think he will simply watch Jakob that first 200 and when he moves, he will just body onto him from which it remains to be seen if Jakob really can run that last 12-1300m in the 55's. As we know, if he can't and the pace slips, Kerr has the tools to beat him.
Ultimately though I will always side with the guy who really controls his own destiny vs the other (who is albeit also great) that will rely on the other guy not getting it right. The problem Jakob has is that "getting it right" for him is really tough with little margin for error. I still think he can. We are going to find out in exactly 2 hours time!
Big Red... that is my scenario and what I predicted in the context. Yared out, Jacob takes over, Josh stalks. Cole in 4th. Cole shocks and wins in a kick.
Big Red... that is my scenario and what I predicted in the context. Yared out, Jacob takes over, Josh stalks. Cole in 4th. Cole shocks and wins in a kick.
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