He has way more than a 1% chance. Here are the facts:
-True, his PR is 8:15/8:16 (I can’t remember which). But James Corrigan ran 8:13, and Rooks took him apart at the Trials. If Corrigan is an 8:13 guy, Rooks is an 8:09 guy, which puts him right with Beamish, a widely-embraced medal threat.
-Last year, Rooks had an NCAA racing schedule with a peak geared toward NCAAs/USAs. This year, as the clear favorite for the trials, he has raced sparingly and is obviously peaking for the Olympics.
-Rooks can kick. Not like Beamish, but he isn’t a time trial guy. He shows up in championships and is well suited to the kind of tactics we’ve seen in recent global steeple finals (slow start, fast finish).
-Rooks’ weakness: he hasn’t raced any Diamond Leagues. In fact, I’m pretty sure all of his steeples have been layups against weak competition. He won’t be used to running in the caliber of field he’ll see in the final. Still, he got through Budapest without any real blunders, as far as I could tell.
Rooks’ bronze medal scenario: Nobody takes it out hard. 8:20 pace for 4-5 laps. El Bakkali or Girma attacks with 2-3 laps to go, blowing the field wide open. Beamish’s injury has flared up and he is out of commission. Rooks, in as good of shape and better form than most of the rest of the field, with a big kick and a little luck, runs to bronze behind the big 2.
Of course, if Girma takes it out at 8:00 pace, Rooks probably ends up 5th-9th in 8:06-8:10. But Girma didn’t do that last year, and is probably trusting his kick given his recent 1500 exploits.
In summary, the brojos’ list of American medal threats has Rooks way too far down. I’m giving him 8%.