What do you think of Rojo's list. Even he admits it's probably a little pessimistic.
This post was edited 7 hours after it was posted.
What do you think of Rojo's list. Even he admits it's probably a little pessimistic.
Thanks for your support.
Why are you using the third person?
Rojo, as a former math teacher you are aware that odds are not a percentage expression, they are expressed as a ratio. Just sayin'
Although I cannot think of the rule offhand I dont think that combining a 20% probability of one event with another of 10% gets you to 28% when combining both.
malmo wrote:
Although I cannot think of the rule offhand I dont think that combining a 20% probability of one event with another of 10% gets you to 28% when combining both.
I'm stunned that he had the correct formula in any sense, but for uncorrelated events it would be correct. The assumption that they are not correlated of course is the flaw.
Seems like there should be more non-zero percentages. Crazy things could happen (massive drug busts, etc.) At least call the "0%" as "less than 1%" to leave open the small possibility.
Nuguse at 11% is too low. He should be above Hocker.
He had a bad race last year at worlds but if he has a great day like his 3:43 he should medal
Hardloper wrote:
Nuguse at 11% is too low. He should be above Hocker.
He had a bad race last year at worlds but if he has a great day like his 3:43 he should medal
Nuguse 25%, Hocker 8%
Nobody should be zero. I think Kessler is too low and Fisher too high.
Hardloper wrote:
Nuguse at 11% is too low. He should be above Hocker.
He had a bad race last year at worlds but if he has a great day like his 3:43 he should medal
Yeah, Hocker at twice as likely to medal seems crazy. Nuguse had a very “meh” race in Budapest and was 5th in 3:30.25–higher than Hocker has placed in a global final in a faster time than Hocker’s PB. In Monaco Yared was the only guy who looked like he had any aspirations to beat Jakob and faded to 3:29.13/4th, which would be far and away Hocker’s best DL performance.
If anything, Nuguse at twice as likely as Hocker—30% to 15%, or so—seems reasonable.
Also it kinda feels like rojo is stealing my ideas now
roedit wrote:
Seems like there should be more non-zero percentages. Crazy things could happen (massive drug busts, etc.) At least call the "0%" as "less than 1%" to leave open the small possibility.
third column athlete wrote:
Thanks for your support.
Prove the haters wrong
90% chance to not win one, 80% to not win the other. Assuming they're independent, he has a 72% chance to win zero --> 28% to win at least 1
Hocker at higher odds than Nuguse? No.
I’m guessing you were the one wondering how Fisher could beat Hocker in the 5000.
I'll say it here - 22% is closer to Hocker's chance for gold than his chance for a medal. Based on responses to this thread, he's being highly underrated.
I think Dakotah Lindwurm has a chance, albeit small, to pull a Molly Seidel and sneak in for a medal. She has been training on the course, and with as hilly and hot as everyone is saying it's supposed to be, I think the race becomes a war of attrition. If that's the case, I like Lindwurm's chances to make the podium.
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