Men’s Olympic Marathon Prediction - Neither Kipchoge or Bekele will win

Of course they’re not going to win. I have more faith in Bekele’s ability to race, and run the paces necessary to stay competitive for a podium spot.

Kipchoge is a 2:03-2:04 marathoner on a flat course at this age, but he won’t accept it. He hammers the first half of every marathon he runs, trying to set a world record or ‘break 2’, only to positive split. He bombed Boston (a bad sign if you take into account the Paris course and the location of the hills in it). He won Berlin (by the skin of his teeth), then bombed Tokyo again with another 6 min positive split.
He’ll go to the front and try to run a time trial in Paris. That might break a few runners who’ll go with him and DNF, opening an opportunity for Bekele.

I think Kipchoge will adjust his tactics for Paris given the foregoing experiences. His plan must be course-specific; the pitfalls he experienced in Boston will allow him to calibrate how he will approach Paris.

Eliud for the W in Paris.

I hope Cam Levins take the gold, followed by Emile Cairess, Sondre Moen and Conner Mantz!

High hopes, but that would be a dream scenario.

you are correct, during the marathon there will be two races

the olympic marathon

and the real race kenenisa vs kipchoge

That’s not true. For the majors, the goal is to run as fast as possible, but for the Olympics, it’s to win a medal. In both Rio de Janeiro and Tokyo, he won with a fast 10K. He will absolutely not try to time trail in Paris.

Admittedly, I would love to see Cam take the gold too.

The latter is what I’m most looking forward to!

Lemma, if fit, has it in the bag.

That Boston run was the real deal

His Boston strategy won't work in Paris. The field is too good to positive split by 3-5 minutes and still win.

Never count out galen.

I believe the hilliest section is mid race.

Go out hard, get a gap, cope with the hills, finish strong.

If he goes out at 1:01 half pace I don't think many/any will go with him

I think Sissay Lemme from Ethiopia is going to take it. He won Valencia last December and Boston this year. He is a 2:01 guy and is very strong.

I think Paris is going to be a death march in the heat. The lead pack will be large as they go through halfway at 64-65, and then we'll see who has the best legs that can handle increased pace in the heat. It will be 13.1 warmup followed by 13.1 race. Don't know who is going to win. Lemma certainly high on the list to take it.

Will be somewhat of a bittersweet race.

Going to be very hard to watch the race and not think of Kiptum. The announcers will likely mention him almost every mile as well.

What do these four have in common?

A 2:01 marathoner has strength? Stop the presses.

but yeah I think Lemma wins

My money is on him also. A super talent!

You get my vote for most boring poster

Your post makes me think of comparisons with Biden actually lol.

Just like Biden's aides probably need to be telling him to DNS the race, Kipchoge's confidants need to tell him to cool it so there's not a DNF (or blow up) in his. Both men are proud and still want to believe they are "the guy." However the reality is that age catches up to all eventually, even those who once enjoyed tremendous success in their chosen fields when they were younger (Kipchoge as the former WR holder and first to go under 2 unofficially and Biden as a young Senator from DE who became VP in a well-respected administration).