Bookies always have an edge so the "true probability" will be lower (if you sum up the implied probabilities of every athlete's odds it will total more than 100%). Thus, the true implied probability for Kerr is in the region of 25%.
Smart money is don't bet at all, or a small disposable stake on Jakob.
Wanyoni, however, is good value in the 800m. Giving 4 times more return than Sedjati, who in my view, is only slight favourite.
Sedjati has shown zero tactics and has just outrun everyone in lane 2 through sheer PED usage willpower and fitness. I haven't watched Wanyoni race much, but it's hard to imagine many people being tactically worse than Sedjati who runs in lane 2 the whole time. If it gets rough and tumble, I think a few people have very good odds. Hoppel is definitely one of the best tacticians in the field. Arop's big stride makes him more prone to tangling up with others, but he's also got the most mass and can "bully" others, and if it comes down to a slow pace and a kick, the man I'd be most afraid of is Marco barrelling down the home stretch, assuming he gets a clean run.
Maybe I'll eat my words, but I think guys like Tuall, who have run very fast times but don't have much experience with being at the top of the sport, don't have the best chances. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these newly minted 1:41/1:42 low guys don't make it out of the semis.
I won't take any of these odds too seriously until I watch the rounds and semis. For last years world champs they didn't adjust the odds after the rounds or semis even though Arop was clearly a man among children, obvious and easy money was won.
Sedjati has shown zero tactics and has just outrun everyone in lane 2 through sheer PED usage willpower and fitness.
Supreme sign of defeatism when we recours to arguments like that.
No it's not.
I'd say the same thing about Jakob. If it's a tactical race, his odds go way down. If he time trials it, he's the clear favorite. Sedjati is no different. They're both juicing, the devil is in the dosage details
I went down to my local bookies today and asked for a £500 accumulator bet - Pattison 800 gold, Kerr 1500 gold, Jakob 5000 gold, AND Wayoumi and Sedjuti to fail Olympic drug testing. The bookie gave me odds of 1000-1 and told me I was a racist as he took my money. He did look Moroccan though.
AND Wayoumi and Sedjuti to fail Olympic drug testing. The bookie gave me odds of 1000-1 and told me I was a racist as he took my money. He did look Moroccan though.
Sedjati has a shot to the WR (and the 1000m WR) by the end of this season.
The impact brought by such accomplissement will be the equivalent of Paavo Nurmi in the Olympics Games.
If Sedjati breaks the world record it will probably be the least excited I've ever been to watch a world record get set. I suspect it'll be the same reaction from 99% of fans.
Would love a more 'superforecasting' type discussion rather than just the nuclear takes.- I believe Jakob is favourite based on his unreal 2 mile strength at peak, 3.43 PB and how close he was to Kerr at Bowerman given missed...
Nuguse is not a bad bet. So these bookies really don't know how to mark the odds in some sports. They're probably basing on US trials but no way Hocker has a greater shot than Nuguse. A pro gambler friend of mine cleans up basketball games for NCAA women's and WNBA games. He said the bookies are often wrong.
There's some head-scratchers like Abel Kipsang being listed as opposed to Brian Komen. They look decent otherwise. I think Wanyonyi is definitely the 800m bet at those odds. Sedjati beat him by .02 because he closed off the inside. In his two Worlds 1500s ran subpar tactically getting DQ'ed and coming from really far back in Eugene. I'm unconvinced, he'll execute a great race if Wanyonyi leads it out and guys like Arop are patient and make Sedjati waste energy.