Would love a more 'superforecasting' type discussion rather than just the nuclear takes.
- I believe Jakob is favourite based on his unreal 2 mile strength at peak, 3.43 PB and how close he was to Kerr at Bowerman given missed training
- Kerr is not massively far behind on the odds. He now has versatility to win with speed and strength, has confidence and is a nose ahead atm - there are no guarantees with fitness. He also has upside for his peak later in the season (but less than Jakob)
- It's a 1500m and although the way they're run these days removes some randomness, they can still be chaotic. If they slow, Wightman is a weapon, if Nuguse gambles and finds the 3.43 magic, if there's a fall or a collision - I think a 20% chance of the field vs Kerr/Ingy is about right.
What are your thoughts, and what do you put the odds at?