US men’s 1500m strategies to win at Paris

Dreamteam1500 wrote:

Cole Hocker

To win gold: pretty simple, don’t get boxed and get in the top 4-5 like USA’s and relax as much as possible. If he is within the top 4 with 400 to go he is in a good spot. Someone will make that move to pass Jakob before 200 m to go. Either Hocker does that move or he lets Kerr do it. If Kerr does it let him and then just get on Jakob’s shoulder and wind up with 150 to go. If Hocker makes the move to make the pass with 250 to go make it decisive and hope you can hold everyone off.

Yared Nuguse

To win gold: the problem with his race last year was just a terrible start at the beginning, worked his way up but was running extra distance on the outside, and didn’t make any moves to get in position to win. I think the most ideal position for him is to get behind Jakob to start and hang on. His best wins have all come down to a lean and he is probably greatest leaner I’ver ever seen. But he must lock in like he did when he ran 3:43. If he does that and doesn’t make any unnecessary moves, he can win.

Hobbs Kessler

i think he is just one year away from being in position to win. But maybe he surprises me. I’m pretty sure nobody on this board picked wightman to win in 2022. His 800m pr is .01 faster than Wightman btw. He doesn’t really have that signature kick yet, yet he can run 1:43. Kind of funny but let’s see if Ron warhurst can sharpen the blade more with Kessler. The good things about Hobbs is he has nothing to lose. Still 21 years old with a lot of championship races ahead for him.

Dreamteam1500 wrote:

Cole Hocker

To win gold: pretty simple, don’t get boxed and get in the top 4-5 like USA’s and relax as much as possible. If he is within the top 4 with 400 to go he is in a good spot. Someone will make that move to pass Jakob before 200 m to go. Either Hocker does that move or he lets Kerr do it. If Kerr does it let him and then just get on Jakob’s shoulder and wind up with 150 to go. If Hocker makes the move to make the pass with 250 to go make it decisive and hope you can hold everyone off.

Yared Nuguse

To win gold: the problem with his race last year was just a terrible start at the beginning, worked his way up but was running extra distance on the outside, and didn’t make any moves to get in position to win. I think the most ideal position for him is to get behind Jakob to start and hang on. His best wins have all come down to a lean and he is probably greatest leaner I’ver ever seen. But he must lock in like he did when he ran 3:43. If he does that and doesn’t make any unnecessary moves, he can win.

Hobbs Kessler

i think he is just one year away from being in position to win. But maybe he surprises me. I’m pretty sure nobody on this board picked wightman to win in 2022. His 800m pr is .01 faster than Wightman btw. He doesn’t really have that signature kick yet, yet he can run 1:43. Kind of funny but let’s see if Ron warhurst can sharpen the blade more with Kessler. The good things about Hobbs is he has nothing to lose. Still 21 years old with a lot of championship races ahead for him.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Dreamteam1500 wrote:

Cole Hocker

To win gold: pretty simple, don’t get boxed and get in the top 4-5 like USA’s and relax as much as possible. If he is within the top 4 with 400 to go he is in a good spot. Someone will make that move to pass Jakob before 200 m to go. Either Hocker does that move or he lets Kerr do it. If Kerr does it let him and then just get on Jakob’s shoulder and wind up with 150 to go. If Hocker makes the move to make the pass with 250 to go make it decisive and hope you can hold everyone off.

Yared Nuguse

To win gold: the problem with his race last year was just a terrible start at the beginning, worked his way up but was running extra distance on the outside, and didn’t make any moves to get in position to win. I think the most ideal position for him is to get behind Jakob to start and hang on. His best wins have all come down to a lean and he is probably greatest leaner I’ver ever seen. But he must lock in like he did when he ran 3:43. If he does that and doesn’t make any unnecessary moves, he can win.

Hobbs Kessler

i think he is just one year away from being in position to win. But maybe he surprises me. I’m pretty sure nobody on this board picked wightman to win in 2022. His 800m pr is .01 faster than Wightman btw. He doesn’t really have that signature kick yet, yet he can run 1:43. Kind of funny but let’s see if Ron warhurst can sharpen the blade more with Kessler. The good things about Hobbs is he has nothing to lose. Still 21 years old with a lot of championship races ahead for him.

Yeah this is a fun one to speculate on. My opinion.

The only American who possibly could win Paris is Hocker. Here is the logic and how it could happen. Firstly why Nuguse and Kessler just can't, irrespective of their strategies.

Nuguse might be the fastest American and most talented but his path to winning is the exact same as a guy who is simply better than he is - Jakob IngebrigTsen. It's really this simple and even Jakob can't drive and sustain the pace as he needs to the guy taking advantage of this is not Jared, it's Josh Kerr. So Nuguses strategy is to hope that Jakob sets a brutal pace that only he can hang with (not even JK) and then Jakob falters and he doesn't. I don't see it.

With Kessler, I don't think he has the superpower or unique skillset just yet over this distance. Is he winning a fast race? Is he winning a mid-race throwdown to the finish race? (think 2004 final) Is he winning an old school massive kick race? (think more like the 1992 final) - I don't see it. In fact I think if we time travel to both the 8 and 1500m finals with Kessler in them, he has more chance of pulling a Clayton Murphy and snagging some hardware in the 800 than the 1500m. That's because after 3 rounds and if guys lose their heads going out in 49 and fighting each other for position through 600m, a guy who runs smart like Kessler could pick off bodies in the final 150 and get on the podium. It's a stretch but not as much as in the 1500m. Kesslers strategy as one of the fastest 800m guys in the field is to hope for a race like 2004, stick to Kerr and hope he falters where he doesn't. I don't see this either.

So it is Hocker who is the most likely to win and it would have to be a really messy race where he stays out of trouble, gets good position in the pack where he can bounce guys off him and he emerges with 200m to go like Cacho did in 1992. Because unlike Nuguse and Kessler, in this style of race I truly think he could be the best guy in the field. 2.01 at 800, 2.56 at 1200m and Hocker has the chops to run 37.x for the final 300m. His strategy should be to get out and front and disrupt the rhythm of the race and hope some other dudes fend Jakob off from making his classic 300m long passing move from the start to the 1200m to go point. Run the shortest distance never being more than 2-3 spots from the front and hope that somehow neither J.I, Kerr or Nuguse can get to the front and drive it early or at the mid point of the race. This is also unlikely but hey, who ever thought we we see Morceli run the way he did in Barcelona after blitzing everyone in every fashion possible from the 91 worlds through that 92 season?

But I agree with the post just above this one - all of these scenarios are a stretch.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Dreamteam1500 wrote:

Cole Hocker

To win gold: pretty simple, don’t get boxed and get in the top 4-5 like USA’s and relax as much as possible. If he is within the top 4 with 400 to go he is in a good spot. Someone will make that move to pass Jakob before 200 m to go. Either Hocker does that move or he lets Kerr do it. If Kerr does it let him and then just get on Jakob’s shoulder and wind up with 150 to go. If Hocker makes the move to make the pass with 250 to go make it decisive and hope you can hold everyone off.

Yared Nuguse

To win gold: the problem with his race last year was just a terrible start at the beginning, worked his way up but was running extra distance on the outside, and didn’t make any moves to get in position to win. I think the most ideal position for him is to get behind Jakob to start and hang on. His best wins have all come down to a lean and he is probably greatest leaner I’ver ever seen. But he must lock in like he did when he ran 3:43. If he does that and doesn’t make any unnecessary moves, he can win.

Hobbs Kessler

i think he is just one year away from being in position to win. But maybe he surprises me. I’m pretty sure nobody on this board picked wightman to win in 2022. His 800m pr is .01 faster than Wightman btw. He doesn’t really have that signature kick yet, yet he can run 1:43. Kind of funny but let’s see if Ron warhurst can sharpen the blade more with Kessler. The good things about Hobbs is he has nothing to lose. Still 21 years old with a lot of championship races ahead for him.

Yeah this is a fun one to speculate on. My opinion.

The only American who possibly could win Paris is Hocker. Here is the logic and how it could happen. Firstly why Nuguse and Kessler just can't, irrespective of their strategies.

Nuguse might be the fastest American and most talented but his path to winning is the exact same as a guy who is simply better than he is - Jakob IngebrigTsen. It's really this simple and even Jakob can't drive and sustain the pace as he needs to the guy taking advantage of this is not Jared, it's Josh Kerr. So Nuguses strategy is to hope that Jakob sets a brutal pace that only he can hang with (not even JK) and then Jakob falters and he doesn't. I don't see it.

With Kessler, I don't think he has the superpower or unique skillset just yet over this distance. Is he winning a fast race? Is he winning a mid-race throwdown to the finish race? (think 2004 final) Is he winning an old school massive kick race? (think more like the 1992 final) - I don't see it. In fact I think if we time travel to both the 8 and 1500m finals with Kessler in them, he has more chance of pulling a Clayton Murphy and snagging some hardware in the 800 than the 1500m. That's because after 3 rounds and if guys lose their heads going out in 49 and fighting each other for position through 600m, a guy who runs smart like Kessler could pick off bodies in the final 150 and get on the podium. It's a stretch but not as much as in the 1500m. Kesslers strategy as one of the fastest 800m guys in the field is to hope for a race like 2004, stick to Kerr and hope he falters where he doesn't. I don't see this either.

So it is Hocker who is the most likely to win and it would have to be a really messy race where he stays out of trouble, gets good position in the pack where he can bounce guys off him and he emerges with 200m to go like Cacho did in 1992. Because unlike Nuguse and Kessler, in this style of race I truly think he could be the best guy in the field. 2.01 at 800, 2.56 at 1200m and Hocker has the chops to run 37.x for the final 300m. His strategy should be to get out and front and disrupt the rhythm of the race and hope some other dudes fend Jakob off from making his classic 300m long passing move from the start to the 1200m to go point. Run the shortest distance never being more than 2-3 spots from the front and hope that somehow neither J.I, Kerr or Nuguse can get to the front and drive it early or at the mid point of the race. This is also unlikely but hey, who ever thought we we see Morceli run the way he did in Barcelona after blitzing everyone in every fashion possible from the 91 worlds through that 92 season?

But I agree with the post just above this one - all of these scenarios are a stretch.