I wouldn't count IWU out from the top 5. On paper they still look very strong, but they're a bit hard to put a number on now. Keep in mind Vernot ran 14:27 at the end of track while Wasnich and Bantz both broke 15 in the 5k at the end of the year.
OKC took 10th place last year without a single All-American, and it looks like they bring all seven of their athletes from last year back and add Silva. That depth behind Silva definitely makes them a trophy contender on paper. Hartis, Boulanger, and Devany all had strong track seasons as well which should help boost them.
Montreat should be exciting to watch this year but I think I have them a bit lower in the rankings than you do. We'll have to see how Ethan Stamey and some of the other Montreat guys recover from a rough track season.
St. Mary is also really interesting. Chris Metz was a cross country All-American who suffered from sciatica during track, but he should be fully recovered soon. Liam Neidig and Luis Perez two years ago had some solid cross country races but didn’t run well in cross country last season. On top of that, I think Tommy Baker and Daniel Pantoja are in for big seasons based on what they did during track. They have one of the highest ceilings of any team in the NAIA.
I’m also not very high on Dordt. They had a pretty underwhelming track season. Becker was great in mid distance, while Vorster was about where you’d expect him to be in the 5k and 10k, but beyond that they were pretty disappointing. Davelaar regressed from where he was in high school and it seems like Summerhays wasn’t 100% most of the season.
Cumberlands is still the heavy favorite, but it looks like they have a few of their top returners from last cross country season recovering from injuries, so it’s hard to predict where they are. On top of that, most of their new recruits only have mid distance times listed on their world athletics pages, making it pretty hard to assume what exactly they’d run in an 8k. Also, I have to wonder if they’ll be able to get everyone eligible right away since they struggled with that for so long last year.
Eastern Oregon also had a bit of a disappointing track season from a few key guys (namely Cristian Mendoza, who seemed to be seriously injured) and Winston Telford is transferring to Milligan. I don’t have them as a title/trophy contender as of now.
College of Idaho could be a trophy contender depending on how Daniel Butler returns. They also could use an upgrade at their 5th spot right now. They look pretty strong through 4.
I’m surprised nobody has mentioned Milligan yet. While they lose Jones and Stockley they are getting Blake Hipkiss and Winston Telford as transfers. Bryson Lewis had a little bit of an underwhelming track season, but he was an xc All-American as a freshman and Bryn Woodall who placed 6th in cross last year is returning as well. They also just always seem to perform well when it matters the most.
The Master's is going to be really deep this year too, and they return Jack Anderson who was one of the top finishers at nationals last year.